Quote (Malopox @ Nov 26 2023 11:19am)
I’m not sure how Ukraine plans to get their land back (Crimea / Donbass) without an overwhelming military victory.
Neutrality (no NATO and no CSTO) with explicit military guarantee akin to Article 5 by the West / Turkey / Russia / whoever else wants to join - could be a solution to ensure whatever remains of Ukraine doesn’t get attacked by Russia again if they are so concerned.
I doubt this is in the interest of the NATO block as they are giving something away (guarantee) without getting the manpower in return (as well as political setback in terms of eastward expansion limits).
The deal is off the table for the time being as Russians think they have an edge as western support falters and they have a chance at winning attrition war.
They are not gaining land actively though so acquiring Odessa/Nikolaev to cut off sea routes might be a pipe dream unless a widescale mobilization to raise troop sizes to 1-2M is implemented which is extremely unpopular (don’t forget Russia will have elections in March 2024).
In any case thousands more will die it seems until the leaders involved sit down and talk this through to figure out a way forward.
again, none of this is new. The funding for the war is already agreed, by various nations, for the next 4 years. As already commented, next year will probably see more missile strikes in Russia by Ukraine, and Russia will probably move the goalposts further in response (i.e. capture more land, have harsher conditions for any peace treaty), and will probably at a certain point consider moving on the capital of Ukraine, which would be in 2025, unlikely to be sooner, may be later.
This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 26 2023 05:28am