Even most upbeat western warhawks of Carnegie center writing for WSJ have toned their optimism down it seems.
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/its-time-to-end-magical-thinking-about-russias-defeat-f6d0b8deTLDR:
Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed to produce a significant breakthrough that would strengthen its bargaining position, and U.S. support has dwindled.
There are no signs at the front that Russia is losing the war of attrition.
Western promises to increase military supplies have not materialized, and sanctions have proven less effective than expected. The Russian economy has suffered, but it is not destroyed.
Russian defense industries are increasing production, and China and India have provided important support to the economy. The Russian Federation is supported “in various parts of the Global South.”
Putin has withstood all Western attempts to stop the invasion of Ukraine, and his power is secure. The United States and its allies need a new strategy: containment.
It has to be noted in all fairness that WSJ emphasizes that, despite forecasts, Ukraine is successfully resisting pressure from Russia.
“Supporting Ukraine in the fight and supplying it with weapons and ammunition is not charity, but the most urgent and cost-effective element of Western strategy. [...] The United States and its allies need to be clear about the long-term nature of this enterprise,”.
So basically a fight until the last Ukranian to contain Russia as a geopolitical rival.
This post was edited by Malopox on Nov 17 2023 05:11am