USA spent about $140 blns on war in Vietnam which is like $1.5 trlns worth now. Russia spent like $40 blns so far. Expect 30+ years of war, millions of dead.

This post was edited by Norlander on Nov 15 2023 07:43am

Ain't he a cutie?

More like $70-80 billion during first 9 months of its 3 day war, not like Russia strives for the well being of its people or cares about the future. Russians will endure, better to occupy some village with population of 20 people in eastern Ukraine than focus on building/renovating much needed critical infrastructure inside Russia itself.

Smells like teen Hitler

Ukraine didn't have a pro-Russia government in 2013 or 2014. The different branches of government disagreed on the direction of the country. The executive under the president was pro-Russia, the legislative in the form of the parliament was pro-EU.



I disagree with this notion, but that's beside the point since it doesn't actually answer my question: what did Ukraine do to provoke the Russian invasion specifically in February of 2022? Why at that point in time and not earlier? You claimed that one of the keys to hold off Russia is to "not provoke Russia to give them the will to invade you". Russia evidently didn't have this will for a proper invasion from 2014 through at least 2021. So what changed, what did Ukraine do in 2021 or early 2022 that prompted Russia to go for the full-scale invasion?

That is perhaps true, though doesn't change the fact that the coup was a provocation towards Russia.

Ukraine, to my knowledge, did not do anything specific in the immediate period before the invasion in 2022. Though what is crystal clear to me, and should be to everyone, is that the invasion happened then because of the disastrous botched USA withdrawal from Afghanistan - this sent a very clear signal that US military leadership was incompetent - in addition, Biden commented that he would tolerate a "minor incursion" into Ukraine. This touches on the other prong - deterrence through strength. The US demonstrated profound weakness. On this topic I always think of Longshanks from Braveheart, paraphrasing: "who shall I send to parley with the Scots? Not my gentle son, for he would only encourage them to invade all of England".

Additionally, Russia did immediately respond to the 2014 provocation with the annexation of Crimea. What deterred them at the time from further action was fear of the US. Russia already made the decision to invade in 2014, they just prudently waited for the appropriate moment.

This post was edited by El1te on Nov 15 2023 08:31pm

I largely agree with all of this. Still, it contradicts your previous claim that "not provoking" Russia is a key element for holding them off. You're indirectly admitting that the only chance Russia's neighbors have at achieving lasting peace while retaining their own sovereignty (vs becoming a Russian puppet) is "peace through strength".

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 16 2023 05:23pm

Speacial grain stealing operation ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-grain-theft-ukraine-russia-latest-b2447644.html