Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 15 2023 12:31am)
Stopping this war isn't easy for the side of Ukraine and its Western supporters. If they appear too weak, Russia will conclude that it can achieve a better outcome by continuing the war, so why compromise?
In hindsight, it probably would have been better for Ukraine to try to negotiate a peace treaty before its counteroffensive, using this threat as a trump card to get concessions.
On top of that, the rebuild will also be a black hole for western dollars and euros for many years before it pays off in the form of a resurgent Ukraine becoming a worthwhile market and trade partner. And we don't actually want to start investing in a rebuild before a solid, reliable peace has been achieved. Even if a peace treaty is negotiated now, the only thing stopping Russia from trying the same playbook yet again in a couple of years is arming Ukraine so much that they can deter these shenanigans - so we'll realistically have to continue military support for Ukraine as well, at least for a couple of years, even if the actual war stops soon.
In the famous 2017-8? interview (which can be viewed earlier in this topic) Ukraine alluded to going to war with Russia multiple times, which suggests breaking peace treaties. We have already seen Ukraine has no interest in a negotiated peace which suggests it is an impossibility for the current Ukrainian Government. Quite frankly I would be very surprised if Russia agreed to anything from the current Ukrainian (or US) leadership when noting the West has reiterated repeatedly it will continue to fund Ukraine for at least the next 4 years.
To compound Ukraine's dead end - In terms of a black hole and trade partner, we saw last week "Ukraine gets European Commission backing for talks on Ukraine membership" - This to my mind is basically the West doubling down and is in line with the comments "Ukraine will be in Nato". The West seems to think that Russia is imperialistic and wants to take over the world and it suggests (to me at any rate) that they have convinced themselves of Russian intentions and that Ukraine in the EU and Nato after a peace treaty, is long term viable. The problem with this starting position is that (in my opinion) Russia's goals were never those of conquest but rather to defend the ethnic Russian minorities, and Russia's security concerns, in the region. When viewed from that lens, I dont see Russia standing by while Ukraine joins the EU or Nato, and they would probably ensure that any peace treaty bar's Ukraine from doing this.
I mean, look at Cuba. If the US is still holding a grudge so many decades later (even though the US nuclear missiles in Turkey were the cause of the crisis!), it would be foolish to believe Russia won't hold a grudge against Ukraine for the last 9 years activities. When you look at it in the round, the US has no credible diplomatic core (I think everyone can agree on this re: Ukraine and Israel and China), and both the US and EU are not interested in Russian security concerns. Therefore its not logical to believe that a lasting peace can be achieved. With the rhetoric nonstop re: EU and Nato and arming Ukraine, its a pipedream right now for Ukraine to get out of this mess. It is not credible to continue doing the same thing and expect a different outcome.
This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 15 2023 03:04am