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Nov 14 2023 09:07pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 14 2023 05:48pm)
Because that has been Russia's modus operandi for the past 300 years: if you're Russia's neighbor, you're either strong enough to hold your ground, or you're getting annexed sooner or later. Why would Ukraine, after everything they've endured at the hands of the Russians throughout their history, be foolish enough to rely on the goodwill of the Russians?

The ideal solution is not to stop Russia through war, but rather to stop them via deterrence. Speaking of deterrence:


If the goal is to maintain the status quo, rather than take back lost territory, Ukraine doesn't need big wins. In this case, they just need enough military might to deter further Russian incursions into the territory they currently control, plus the capability to retaliate against hypothetical drone/cruise missile attacks. What they don't necessarily need in order to maintain a peace treaty along the current lines are massive ground forces which can break through heavily fortified Russian lines.

--------------

The way I see the past 8 months as well as the current situation is the following: giving Ukraine's counteroffensive a chance, giving them a shot at retaking lost territory, was the reasonable approach with what we knew in spring. Now that this attempt has failed very unambiguously while support for Ukraine is showing cracks among the Western populace, Ukraine retaking Crimea or the Donbass seems wholly impossible and retaking the land corridor between the two also seems highly unlikely. Hence, a peace treaty enshrining the current status quo is about the best outcome which is on the table.

For the reasons I lined out above, the best course of action for Ukraine is to wait until the Russians try to go on the proper offense again, crush this offense and only then start negotiating. (With proper offense, I mean pushing forward in a place with a rather straight frontline. Russia will probably take the Avdiivka salient which is surrounded by Russian territory on 3.5 sides.) If the Russians unexpectedly don't go on such an offense, the war will settle into a frozen conflict anyway.


I think the right method to hold off Russia has two prongs: first is deterrence through strength, the second is don't provoke Russia to give them the will to invade you. Ukraine provoked Russia as much as they possibly could and now they suffer the consequences

This post was edited by El1te on Nov 14 2023 09:07pm
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Nov 14 2023 10:16pm
Quote (El1te @ 15 Nov 2023 04:07)
I think the right method to hold off Russia has two prongs: first is deterrence through strength, the second is don't provoke Russia to give them the will to invade you. Ukraine provoked Russia as much as they possibly could and now they suffer the consequences


What did Ukraine do in 2021/early 2022 to provoke the Russian invasion in Feb 22?
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Nov 14 2023 10:19pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 14 2023 08:16pm)
What did Ukraine do in 2021/early 2022 to provoke the Russian invasion in Feb 22?


Violent coup to oust the duly elected pro-Russia government, early 2014

Bombardment and terrorizing (via Azov and other neo-Nazi paramilitary groups) ethnic Russians in the Donbass, 2014-2022

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Nov 15 2023 01:39am
I for one still waiting for that guy to name the Russian technology that western world relies on even today haha
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Nov 15 2023 02:59am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 15 2023 12:31am)
Stopping this war isn't easy for the side of Ukraine and its Western supporters. If they appear too weak, Russia will conclude that it can achieve a better outcome by continuing the war, so why compromise?
In hindsight, it probably would have been better for Ukraine to try to negotiate a peace treaty before its counteroffensive, using this threat as a trump card to get concessions.

On top of that, the rebuild will also be a black hole for western dollars and euros for many years before it pays off in the form of a resurgent Ukraine becoming a worthwhile market and trade partner. And we don't actually want to start investing in a rebuild before a solid, reliable peace has been achieved. Even if a peace treaty is negotiated now, the only thing stopping Russia from trying the same playbook yet again in a couple of years is arming Ukraine so much that they can deter these shenanigans - so we'll realistically have to continue military support for Ukraine as well, at least for a couple of years, even if the actual war stops soon.


In the famous 2017-8? interview (which can be viewed earlier in this topic) Ukraine alluded to going to war with Russia multiple times, which suggests breaking peace treaties. We have already seen Ukraine has no interest in a negotiated peace which suggests it is an impossibility for the current Ukrainian Government. Quite frankly I would be very surprised if Russia agreed to anything from the current Ukrainian (or US) leadership when noting the West has reiterated repeatedly it will continue to fund Ukraine for at least the next 4 years.

To compound Ukraine's dead end - In terms of a black hole and trade partner, we saw last week "Ukraine gets European Commission backing for talks on Ukraine membership" - This to my mind is basically the West doubling down and is in line with the comments "Ukraine will be in Nato". The West seems to think that Russia is imperialistic and wants to take over the world and it suggests (to me at any rate) that they have convinced themselves of Russian intentions and that Ukraine in the EU and Nato after a peace treaty, is long term viable. The problem with this starting position is that (in my opinion) Russia's goals were never those of conquest but rather to defend the ethnic Russian minorities, and Russia's security concerns, in the region. When viewed from that lens, I dont see Russia standing by while Ukraine joins the EU or Nato, and they would probably ensure that any peace treaty bar's Ukraine from doing this.

I mean, look at Cuba. If the US is still holding a grudge so many decades later (even though the US nuclear missiles in Turkey were the cause of the crisis!), it would be foolish to believe Russia won't hold a grudge against Ukraine for the last 9 years activities. When you look at it in the round, the US has no credible diplomatic core (I think everyone can agree on this re: Ukraine and Israel and China), and both the US and EU are not interested in Russian security concerns. Therefore its not logical to believe that a lasting peace can be achieved. With the rhetoric nonstop re: EU and Nato and arming Ukraine, its a pipedream right now for Ukraine to get out of this mess. It is not credible to continue doing the same thing and expect a different outcome.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 15 2023 03:04am
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Nov 15 2023 03:15am
Quote (ferdia @ Nov 15 2023 08:59am)
In the famous 2017-8? interview (which can be viewed earlier in this topic) Ukraine alluded to going to war with Russia multiple times, which suggests breaking peace treaties. We have already seen Ukraine has no interest in a negotiated peace which suggests it is an impossibility for the current Ukrainian Government. Quite frankly I would be very surprised if Russia agreed to anything from the current Ukrainian (or US) leadership when noting the West has reiterated repeatedly it will continue to fund Ukraine for at least the next 4 years.

To compound Ukraine's dead end - In terms of a black hole and trade partner, we saw last week "Ukraine gets European Commission backing for talks on Ukraine membership" - This to my mind is basically the West doubling down and is in line with the comments "Ukraine will be in Nato". The West seems to think that Russia is imperialistic and wants to take over the world and it suggests (to me at any rate) that they have convinced themselves of Russian intentions and that Ukraine in the EU and Nato after a peace treaty, is long term viable. The problem with this starting position is that (in my opinion) Russia's goals were never those of conquest but rather to defend the ethnic Russian minorities, and Russia's security concerns, in the region. When viewed from that lens, I dont see Russia standing by while Ukraine joins the EU or Nato, and they would probably ensure that any peace treaty bar's Ukraine from doing this.

I mean, look at Cuba. If the US is still holding a grudge so many decades later (even though the US nuclear missiles in Turkey were the cause of the crisis!), it would be foolish to believe Russia won't hold a grudge against Ukraine for the last 9 years activities. When you look at it in the round, the US has no credible diplomatic core (I think everyone can agree on this re: Ukraine and Israel and China), and both the US and EU are not interested in Russian security concerns. Therefore its not logical to believe that a lasting peace can be achieved. With the rhetoric nonstop re: EU and Nato and arming Ukraine, its a pipedream right now for Ukraine to get out of this mess. It is not credible to continue doing the same thing and expect a different outcome.


Russia involved in 15 wars since 1990. Majority of them with its neighbours. There is your roadblock to any lasting peace.

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Nov 15 2023 04:11am
Russia can be pariah state for next 60 years with their buddies North Korea, Taliban, Isis and Hamas. Then they can fall apart into 20 new countries and beg for humanitarian aid so they don’t starve to death just as they did in 1990 ahaha, vicious cycle on loop.
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Nov 15 2023 04:56am
Quote (MichaelSwors @ 15 Nov 2023 13:11)
Russia can be pariah state for next 60 years with their buddies North Korea, Taliban, Isis and Hamas. Then they can fall apart into 20 new countries and beg for humanitarian aid so they don’t starve to death just as they did in 1990 ahaha, vicious cycle on loop.


Who would you support in this case: the Moscow Republic, where the percentage of the Jewish population is quite high, or Chechnya with Sharia courts and zoological hatred of everyone who abuses their genetic features in oxygen breathing?
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Nov 15 2023 05:00am
Quote (Norlander @ Nov 15 2023 10:56am)
Who would you support in this case: the Moscow Republic, where the percentage of the Jewish population is quite high, or Chechnya with Sharia courts and zoological hatred of everyone who abuses their genetic features in oxygen breathing?


It won't matter. Pitch them all against each other to drive the price of oil down.

And whoever makes most Matryoshka doll.
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Nov 15 2023 05:14am
Quote (El1te @ Nov 14 2023 10:19pm)
Violent coup Popular protests to oust the duly elected Russia-installed puppet pro-Russia government, early 2014

Bombardment and terrorizing (via Azov and other neo-Nazi paramilitary groups) ethnic Russians in the Donbass, 2014-2022


FTFY

There is no reason to believe Russia didn't interfere in his "election" in the first place.
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