Quote (Malopox @ Nov 6 2023 08:58am)
There were a bunch of articles explaining recent misfortunes in Ukraine/:
1. The average western voter needs to be explained who’s to blame that everything failed so far. The United States is to blame for not delivering something on time. The Ukrainian generals who don’t know how to fight are to blame. The stupid Ukrainian soldiers who cannot use Western equipment are to blame. The bushes are to blame. Blame the Christmas trees. The weather is to blame. The Russians are to blame. Putin is to blame. And so on, highlight what is necessary.
2. Ukraine will certainly continue to receive money and weapons to continue the war, stories about a “successful offensive in 2024.” emerging. The United States is not going to end the war in Ukraine. Not now, not in the near future. The fact that it has become more difficult to make it does not mean that it will be abandoned and the war will stop on its own.
3. The best way to end the war for Russia on their terms is the military defeat of UA and replacement of their govt. Its not possible to achieve this quickly, so Russia is preparing for a long struggle with the United States and NATO in Ukraine.
I think there's some real cracks in the war effort. The fact twice now in the US the funding for Ukraine fell through in the span of a few months is a big deal and an indication of the diminished appetite to write blank checks. First it was the sneaking in of Ukraine funding into temp funding bill that at least in part had something to do with McCarthy losing his job, then trying to attach a 60+Bn bundled with Israel that republicans said no to.
This is both due to tightening financial conditions in the US but I think the more important factors are, in the west I think there's many that think the resources are mismanaged. Corruption is rampant in Ukraine with a lot of 'leakage' and the fact that 100+Bn yielded very minimal gains. So what will change with another 60, 100, 200 billion? How long is the commitment for? What are the ultimate goals and are they realistic? How does this actually benefit the US? There's a lot of tough questions, particularly more emphasized approaching a general election.
There's other important factors like the average age of an Ukrainian soldier today is now in the 40s, with the trained units being heavily degraded and now having to rely on older and less optimal recruits. I just don't know how Ukraine can sustain this war with the current rate of losses. The country today is around ~28 million people, with many that could have been drafted, already drafted. Peace has to come, before the country is left with a bunch of women, kids and old men.
Many at the start of the war were saying that Putin wants to erase Ukraine as a country. The reality is, that could become reality, not because Russia wins the war, but because Ukraine and the west insists on fighting without compromise, to the point the country is so bled and so many have left that it will be extremely difficult to recover post-war.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 6 2023 09:42am