Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 3 2023 08:02am)
False dichotomy. There are roughly three, not two, possible outcomes if this war continues: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory or a long-term stalemate. An Ukrainian victory would require a massive extension of the Western military aid, which seems all but impossible. But both of the other outcomes are still realistically on the table.
And like I've already stressed in a discussion with bogie yesterday: if even the Ukrainians believe that a continuation of the war will result in Russian victory, then the Russians will definitely think so too - so why would the Russians then agree to any peace deal which falls short of total and unconditional Ukrainian surrender?
I don't think a massive extension of aid would result in victory, at least at this point.
To your second point, Ukraine should want to negotiate because the alternative is a grinding war of attrition which they will lose. I think that's independent of whether Russia is in the mood to accept peace at this juncture. And the risk, that Ukrainian lines collapse at some point, means territorial concessions far in excess of what Russia holds today. On the other hand, I agree that Russia is probably not presently serious about peace. They were last year, when Ukraine had the upper hand and Russian lines were in disarray, and that was a missed opportunity for a negotiated settlement. Now Russia firmly believes that the war can be won, and Ukraine will have to disabuse them of the notion.
At the same time, though, the war is an existential risk to the Russian regime. There's an enormous cost in lives, cash, and resources. There will come a point where the cost benefit analysis of further war swings in favor of a negotiated settlement. Putin can spin that as a victory, Russia's armed forces can regroup, and the regime can present the liberation of Novorossiya as a great accomplishment of the collective Russian nation.