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Nov 3 2023 06:02am
Quote (ofthevoid @ 3 Nov 2023 02:35)

False dichotomy. There are roughly three, not two, possible outcomes if this war continues: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory or a long-term stalemate. An Ukrainian victory would require a massive extension of the Western military aid, which seems all but impossible. But both of the other outcomes are still realistically on the table.

And like I've already stressed in a discussion with bogie yesterday: if even the Ukrainians believe that a continuation of the war will result in Russian victory, then the Russians will definitely think so too - so why would the Russians then agree to any peace deal which falls short of total and unconditional Ukrainian surrender?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 3 2023 06:14am
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Nov 3 2023 06:10am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 3 Nov 2023 14:02)
False dichotomy. There are roughly three, not two, possible outcomes if this war continues: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory or a long-term stalemate. An Ukrainian victory would require a massive extension of the Western military aid, which seems all but impossible. But both of the other outcomes are still realistically on the table.

And like I've already stressed in a discussion with bogie yesterday: if even the Ukrainians believe that a continuation of the war will result in Russian victory, then the Russian will definitely think so too - so why would the Russians then agree to any peace deal which falls short of total and unconditional Ukrainian surrender?


Ukraine can place its citizen in the front line and let the russians kill them than the world will uproar russia will stop and we can all send humanitarian aid to ukraine for rebuild

This post was edited by Many_Names on Nov 3 2023 06:22am
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Nov 3 2023 07:23am
Next post.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Nov 3 2023 07:34am
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Nov 3 2023 07:24am
Quote (Meanwhile @ 3 Nov 2023 15:23)
Interesting result, exposing the dynamics of politics are UN scale:

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wiAA1YNe0HQ/maxresdefault.jpg


Un is completely useless organization
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Nov 3 2023 07:25am
Interesting result, exposing the dynamics of politics are UN scale:

/e 185 to 2 against blockade of Cuba



This post was edited by Meanwhile on Nov 3 2023 07:25am
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Nov 3 2023 07:34am
Quote (Many_Names @ 3 Nov 2023 14:24)
Un is completely useless organization


Since 1947, biggest mistake in mankind history ? Could be.

Btw you didn't even read the content, i made a typo and posted a 2017 vote instead. Not appreciated.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Nov 3 2023 07:35am
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Nov 3 2023 07:41am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 3 2023 08:02am)
False dichotomy. There are roughly three, not two, possible outcomes if this war continues: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory or a long-term stalemate. An Ukrainian victory would require a massive extension of the Western military aid, which seems all but impossible. But both of the other outcomes are still realistically on the table.

And like I've already stressed in a discussion with bogie yesterday: if even the Ukrainians believe that a continuation of the war will result in Russian victory, then the Russians will definitely think so too - so why would the Russians then agree to any peace deal which falls short of total and unconditional Ukrainian surrender?


I don't think a massive extension of aid would result in victory, at least at this point.

To your second point, Ukraine should want to negotiate because the alternative is a grinding war of attrition which they will lose. I think that's independent of whether Russia is in the mood to accept peace at this juncture. And the risk, that Ukrainian lines collapse at some point, means territorial concessions far in excess of what Russia holds today. On the other hand, I agree that Russia is probably not presently serious about peace. They were last year, when Ukraine had the upper hand and Russian lines were in disarray, and that was a missed opportunity for a negotiated settlement. Now Russia firmly believes that the war can be won, and Ukraine will have to disabuse them of the notion.

At the same time, though, the war is an existential risk to the Russian regime. There's an enormous cost in lives, cash, and resources. There will come a point where the cost benefit analysis of further war swings in favor of a negotiated settlement. Putin can spin that as a victory, Russia's armed forces can regroup, and the regime can present the liberation of Novorossiya as a great accomplishment of the collective Russian nation.
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Nov 3 2023 07:44am
Quote (Meanwhile @ Nov 3 2023 09:25am)
Interesting result, exposing the dynamics of politics are UN scale:

/e 185 to 2 against blockade of Cuba

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/UN-vote-Cuba-blockade-embargo-2022.jpg


Whether the United States wants to trade with Cuba is the United States' business. The gall of some countries to think that they have any say on American policy.
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Nov 3 2023 07:49am
Quote (bogie160 @ 3 Nov 2023 14:44)
Whether the United States wants to trade with Cuba is the United States' business. The gall of some countries to think that they have any say on American policy.


The picture only talks by itself, not sure if it's useful to say that "they want to have a say"... Maybe they are all opposed to something instead ?

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Nov 3 2023 08:01am
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Nov 3 2023 07:57am
Quote (Many_Names @ 3 Nov 2023 14:24)
Un is completely useless organization


yes, it is - when it comes to actually FORCING bad actors on any given issue to adhere to international laws.

that said, it's a pretty useful organisation for illustrating who those bad actors are, and how their actions are regarded internationally.

no wonder you hate it so much...
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