Morocco now exports Diesel to Spain…. … their last refinery closed down in 2015 (SAMIR).

This whole thing is just such a farce. I can’t believe my own eyes for the last 18 months.

Here is a recent quote of the CEO of the biggest company of The Netherlands.


And then I go on JSP where two and a half couch warriors are making projections about oil trade going forward decades based on three articles they read in Politico and Bloomberg.

If you are so smart and can project oil even one year out - you should really become an oil trader. You will be a billionaire in no time.

This post was edited by Malopox on Nov 1 2023 09:04am

Do I really need to spell out why it's not in Russia's long term interest to be economically dependent on China, to be at their mercy?

Russia just spent the better part of two decades hooking Europe on their cheap gas to gain leverage and create dependence, so they themselves obviously see this type of strategic position to be beneficial. Well, they just maneuvered themselves into a similar dependence on China. Objectively, and also going by Russia's very own logic, that's a bad thing.

Several points here:

1. "Russia just spent the better part of two decades hooking Europe on their cheap gas" - it could be argued they sold cheap gas to willing buyers, wherever those buyers were.
2. "to gain leverage and create dependence" - I would argue, to make profit, just like every other exporter. the natural consequence is the creation of dependence. you make it sound like a sinister plot, when I would argue, this is just big busines.
3. "so they themselves obviously see this type of strategic position to be beneficial" - again to the above - selling stuff is beneficial, therefore selling to someone else, is also beneficial
4. "Well, they just maneuvered themselves into a similar dependence on China" and ? I dont understand the point you are alluding to here. China needs Russian resources long term, so Russia will be happy to sell to China and build stronger ties with china over the next few decades...
5. "Objectively, and also going by Russia's very own logic, that's a bad thing." selling stuff is, in this day and age, not a bad thing.

TLDR: I dont understand what danger you are alluding to.

Of course trade with Russia will bounce back a little bit, but Russia's market share will never get back to anywhere near its pre-war level. Russia has alienated its best customers for at least one or two generations. And by then, Europe will presumably burn significantly less oil and gas, so the European market will be smaller and less lucrative. Over the next 20-30 years, Russia could have made bank in Europe, but now they won't.

Mark my words: you will be surprised how short term the collective memory of the European corporate machines is when profits can be made once ceasefire is achieved and sanctions are removed.

Eg: I’ve just heard rumours today of people looking to establish trade of Venezuelan cargoes now that sanctions are being lifted. Nobody holds any grudges - business is business.

This post was edited by Malopox on Nov 1 2023 09:37am

Russia is a big place with alot of resources. Also it could be argued that the EU alienated Russia. I am happy to observe from the side and say it takes two to tango. I tend to agree with Malopox here.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 1 2023 09:25am

https://www.ft.com/content/541f8bcb-118a-419e-869f-3273fcc9ce92
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-weaker-hand-undermines-case-power-siberia-2-gas-link-china-2023-10-30/

China is generally paying lower prices for Russian gas then Europe did, and now, Russia's bargaining position is weakened even further. Currently, China is letting Russia wait with greenlighting the Power of Siberia 2 project while Russia wants to speed it up, indicating quite unambiguously that Russia needs this project more than China does. China is also only covering around 5% of its gas supply from Russia and has deliberately diversified its suppliers in recent years.

China could threaten to end the project or stop buying Russian gas at some point in the future. Russia would have no other alternative customers and be faced with collapsing energy revenue (on which their state budget hinges) while China would only need to compensate a manageable share of its demand via other places like Turkmenistan. Thus, Russia would have no other option than to cave and accept worse conditions.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 1 2023 09:23am

Well, thats the nature of business. supply and demand. your position is well made / outlined.

Or, what most likely would happen is reshoring of energy intensive production to Russia from “aligned” countries with foreign direct investment rising to make use of captive gas that has nowhere to go (eg why gulf countries are the bigger aluminium producers worldwide).

While export of pipeline gas has been an important source of tax revenue for Russia it is still not sanctioned to this day and people are free to buy eg LNG and are still buying a lot of it from Russians (eg Spain). You can argue that once Russia reorients itself to export of LNG through the Arctic Sea it will be able to close this route to Non-aligned countries retaining a competitive advantage compared to shipment through Suez.

This post was edited by Malopox on Nov 1 2023 09:36am

this is true, pipeline gas is >>>

but LNG is not a bad route for the seller, you can demand way more for less on long term deals

thats why germany got rejected begging for gas in qatar, they do 15 year plus contracts



yeah its just absurd

on top of that you can add the idiots, who believe we wont need any oil in a few years