Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 Nov 2023 12:30)
You're crazy if you think Europe saying no to cheaper next door natural resources will last more than a generation or two, if that. A good model is Germany post WW2. If Germany which caused so much destruction and death was able to reconnect to Europe post WW2, what makes you think Germany in 20 years will say no thanks to Russian resources? Heck, I damn near guarantee that even within 10 years Germany will be back to Russian gas.
All the things you subsequently described are peripheral tangents. 100k losses, Sweden and Finland joining, which were already NATO effectively and closer ties with Beijing are hardly the sky is falling, world ending losses you frame them out to be. They are worse off versus 2014 when they were looking at the prospect of completely losing Ukraine, including their warm water Crimea port. Today, they reversed at least a portion of those losses and captured 1/5 of Ukraine.
Losing one or two generations of oil and gas revenue is a gigantic cost, we're talking about trillions of dollars here. And even if Europe resumes trade with Russia to some degree, they will never again maneuver themselves into such an unhealthy dependence on Russian supplies like the one we had before this war. Simply put, leveraging this European dependence on cheap Russian gas was a trump card the Russians could play exactly one time. Compared to the situation before the war (Russia already controlling the Donbass and Crimea, Ukraine effectively being indefinitely stopped from joining NATO), I don't think the results from playing this card are too great.
What you euphemisticaly label "closer ties with Beijing" is a dangerous strategic dependence which effectively turns Russia into China's vassal. Furthermore, Russia's actions will only accelerate the transition away from fossils in the West. Yes, the whole net zero stuff is a pipedream, we will never become completely independent from fossils, but their share in our energy mix can and will definitely continue to dwindle - and the experience of the last 18 months will only accelerate this development. Which will once again increase Russia's dependence on China.
If the conflict ends with a peace treaty enshrining roughly the current lines, then Russia will have achieved the bare minimum to save face. Relative to how much they invested (financially and strategically), that's hardly a success. It might only seem like a "win" relative to the expectations which had cratered oh-so much over the course of the war.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 1 2023 08:12am