TLDW: That the War in Ukraine and the War in Israel are not in US interests, distract from China, and neither wars / problems are going away any time soon, giving China more time to solidify its (growing) position.
Ukraine - Russia expected to win, but win does not mean controlling Ukraine. No peace treaty expected, instead more land grab and then something similar to what we have in S vs N Korea. it was suggested Russia wants to now wreck Ukraine.
Israel - No two-state solution expected, and with birth rates the way they are (low on Jewish side, high on Palestinian side) and the apartheid state which they now have, it is going to be a literal breeding ground for more trouble in the coming decades.
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Similar issue in N Ireland where it is currently 51/49 (Nationalist vs Unionist) but all the models are suggesting 70/30 within the next 20 years.
This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 31 2023 06:30am