Someone asked me re: Reasons for the Ukraine War, so I linked him to the thread and am posting this for them. If anyone wants to rebut this, go ahead:
In Brief, the causes of the Ukraine War:
Ukraine borders Russia, and most neutral observers can accept that Russia has not treated Ukraine well, for decades. Ukraine sits within what Russia sees as its "Sphere of Global Influence" (much like how the US has its own sphere of global influence) and therefore Russia was highly agitated when, in 2008, Ukraine sought Nato membership. Nato is a military treaty between the USA and its Allies, which Russia acknowledges as a threat. At the time Russia said this (joining Nato) was a big red flag for them, and the US was told in no uncertain terms that such an eventuality would lead to trouble (read: war). The US refused to assure Russia that Ukraine would not join Nato and the current rhetoric is that Ukraine will join Nato...when the war is over.
Some may say that Russia is imperialistic and its a case of Ukraine today and Poland tomorrow. If one looks at the map one can see that Russia is not trying to take over Ukraine, what it is doing is: it is taking Eastern Ukraine, and it is keeping Crimea. It is also ensuring it is able to reinforce Crimea, if it is forced to do so. In 2014 it is widely accepted that a US backed coup replaced the pro-Russian Ukrainian Government with a Pro-Western Government. [ note: some users may contest this ]. TLDR: Ukraine became pro-Western, but critically, eastern Ukraine did not accept this situation and fighting broke out. Russia also annexed crimea at the time, which Ukraine also contests. From 2014 on wards Ukraine bombed eastern ukraine and received over 50billion in military aid from the US. in 2017~2018 a spokesman for the Ukrainian government highlighted that they would be going to war with Russia sometime around 2020~2021. They expected the war to last for a while, and they expected multiple wars. the Long term goal was to finally break away from Russia and forge their own future. Joining Nato is part of that equation.
Growing up in school people learned about Rocky - Rocky Good, Ivan Drago Bad { read: USA good, Russia bad }. The Cuban Missile Crisis event was spun as follows: Russia bad, sending nuclear missiles to Cuba, can launch pee-emptive strike on USA and therefore USA must react. Years later, declassified documents highlighted that what actually happened was, the USA put nuclear missiles in Turkey, Russia was not happy, so when the opportunity presented itself, Russia put nuclear missiles in Cuba. When the USA learned about this = Cuban Missile Crisis. John F Kennedy, the leader of the USA at the time made a deal with Russia : We take our nuclear missiles out of Turkey and you take them out of Cuba, and Russia said OK. crisis averted.
At the moment, Russia is saying "you dont put ukraine in Nato (read: nuclear missiles in Ukraine) and we wont invade, to which the USA said: No, we will. therefore Russia invaded.
The overarching narrative in western media is that Ukraine will win, dont negotiate with Russia and keep fighting. MY VIEW is that the war will intensify next year and no western government is even considering negotiating with Russia, they are all following the lead from the USA (and England) which is instructing Ukraine to fight to the last man, reclaim all their land back and join Nato. MY VIEW is that this does not look to be realistic.
At the moment there is a lull, but looking at the fine print: Ukraine now has long range missiles and is getting a number of F16 Jet fighters (~100+) it remains to be seen how effective the jet fighters will be with some ppl saying not very while others (like me) saying if they get enough of them (200+) it will lead to a major escalation, regardless, simply having long range missiles now = major escalation next year.
There, i think thats about it.
This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 26 2023 06:52am