Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 17 2023 09:57am)
While I agree with your general sentiment, you are vastly overstating the sums necessary to enable Ukraine to hold off the Russians (not: carry out a successful counteroffensive) or to crush Hezbollah and friends should they try to interfere in Israel.
I'm with you, however, that the support for Ukraine in the West is gradually slipping and that the current counteroffensive is/was probably their only shot at retaking the lost territory. I don't see the support in Western societies for the kind of significant expansion of military support and arms sales which would be necessary for a second, more successful counteroffensive.
I don't think I am, simply because the explicit funding bills aimed towards Ukraine (i.e. 113billion or whatever it was in 2022) are not the full extent of the commitments. For those sums there is hundreds of billions being directed to DOD/Alphabet agencies that serve as support for that aid, which is not factored into that 100+Bn and are basally shadow dollars and funding going towards whatever geopolitical interest.
So next year when defense asks for 10% increase (they already get close to a trillion per anum) they will cite well we need more money to maintain the same level of readiness and whatever but they won't say this money is going to Ukraine or Israel or whatever.
These are long term commitments also, which I think in some ways have already been transferred to the Europeans. Germany and other northern rich Euro states will have to keep Ukraine on life support for probably the next decade. It's like Greece x10 from years back
The logical thing to do today in Ukraine is make it abundantly clear that the war needs to end and some concessions will need to happen. I still believe Ukraine can extract Kherson and most of Zaporizhzhia in the peace talks. They can't take back the Donbass and sure as hell won't be able to take back Crimea which is insulated by natural obstacles. So what's the point of continuing the war?
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 17 2023 08:22am