Russia / Ukraine - Topic

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Oct 10 2023 02:30am

Quote (Malopox @ Oct 10 2023 07:06am)

Russia has overall an improving healthier demographic as new generation (1980s-1990s) doesn’t consume much alcohol and tobacco and is overall more into sports than their parents. Obesity is not a problem like in the US or some other nations. The replacement rate is improving since the catastrophe in the 1990s due to laissez-faire “anarcho-democracy”, but Russia is not at the required 2.1 ratio yet, skewed towards Muslim regions of Russia. The gap caused by the 1990s is filled by migrants from Central Asia (also Muslim and increasingly more religious) which is a ticking bomb as integration/ assimilation policies are lagging behind eg European standards.

Govt programs over the past decade have been to support fertility rate overall. I don’t think the impact of Ukraine/Russia war is as dramatic as people are trying to make it out to be. There are about 50k total deaths and 200-300k net migrants out, without considering new added regions. The main problem in my opinion is demoralization due to western propaganda being better than domestic, but thats subjective.

IMO Russia needs to come up with about 100m+ people in the next century to properly populate the vastness of Siberia and ensure domestic economy and scale required for sustainable growth (as well as to ensure Chinese influence in the Far East is contained). Climate change is helping Russia as more and more parts of Siberia are becoming hospitable to human life. Military conflicts do not help, however these are not new and contained to “professional army people” for now.

You could also argue that promotion of fertility rate is the reason Russia has conservative “family” values and is not promoting LGBTQBBQ+ rights as these are seen as hurting replacement ratios. The target is to promote 2.1 replacement ratio among the population (particularly Christian, educated urban class) through social policies like infrastructure (kindergartens, schools), financial incentives (maternity capital, subsidies) and etc.

Here is a good article about the demographics : https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/numbers-dont-lie-how-russia-is-battling-a-crippling-demographic-decline-13992684

The demographic outlook for most developed nations in Europe is not positive. Aging populations and lower fertility rates mainly. The exception might be Turkey.
But generally the demographic is stable or consistent. There are usually the same amount of working age people in each generation. Although as I said it is generally stagnated.

Russia is different is that it has significant traumatic events in its recent history that manifest in uneven generations of working or fighting age men particularly. Russias demographic was and is particularly affected by the Soviet collapse, alcoholism, mortality rate being among the worst of any developed and relatively average immigration.

Afaik the consensus is that its not a crisis and that state policies can ease the effects. But it is starkly worse than most developed countries.

At least 50k have died. Its probably closer to 100.
So that's being generous and the war is not close to being over.
Probably looking at least half a million serious casualties before any ceasefire is in sight. And thats if yhe war ends within yhe next few years. Another million may have left Russia.
That's not nothing.

Saying that absorbing the population of eastern Ukraine, many of whom remain there in opposition to occupation, the poorest nation in Europe and still an active war zone can somehow absolve Russias demographic issues or negate the impact of their disastrous invasion, is fanciful. Its dillusional.

Meanwhile

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#36322

Oct 10 2023 03:46am

Quote (Malopox @ 10 Oct 2023 08:06)

Russia has overall an improving healthier demographic

Not sure, seems Russian demographics are ruined:

funny comment on youtube:

Russian citizen here. Birthrates in late USSR were shit because economy and society offered no real initiative. By 80s there were deficits of everything, corruption in consumer goods was rampant, and since then people never quite recovered from that anxiety and uncertainty. My mom was teen in 80s, so, Gen X, I am 28, late millennial. Mom had to work all 9 months of pregnancy, had only me, my siblings she couldn’t carry to full term, and my dad as programmer had unstable employment through nineties and died young to rare disease (Stephen Hawking had the same but in remission). I am not having kids in this freaking Mordor

summary regarding Russian Democraphics:

Russia has among the world's worst demographics, with big gouges out of the side of the Russian demographic pyramid that represent periods of huge trauma in Russia's past. The biggest one of all is the post-Soviet collapse in the 1990s when the death rate doubled on the birth rate half. Conservatively, Russian statistics indicate that 1.3 million Russians under age 35 have fled the country since the war began, with most of those trying to get to Europe. The number of people who are under age 35 who theoretically could be drafted is very limited, and even if the Russians have been honest about their statistics these past 20 years, you're still talking about this being a much smaller pool for the Russians to draw upon than anything the Soviet Union had. The Russian educational system collapsed before the Soviet system did, specifically in 1986. That means that the youngest cadre of people, broad people across the entire spectrum of society that have technical training that's meaningful, turns 60 this year. Survivor of that intelligence services system that were educated before 1986 has less than 130 people now. Simple mortality is wiping away the capacity of the Russian government function, even at the top levels, maybe especially at the top levels.

ofthevoid

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#36323

Oct 10 2023 06:34am

Quote (Malopox @ Oct 10 2023 02:06am)

Russia has overall an improving healthier demographic as new generation (1980s-1990s) doesn’t consume much alcohol and tobacco and is overall more into sports than their parents. Obesity is not a problem like in the US or some other nations. The replacement rate is improving since the catastrophe in the 1990s due to laissez-faire “anarcho-democracy”, but Russia is not at the required 2.1 ratio yet, skewed towards Muslim regions of Russia. The gap caused by the 1990s is filled by migrants from Central Asia (also Muslim and increasingly more religious) which is a ticking bomb as integration/ assimilation policies are lagging behind eg European standards.

Govt programs over the past decade have been to support fertility rate overall. I don’t think the impact of Ukraine/Russia war is as dramatic as people are trying to make it out to be. There are about 50k total deaths and 200-300k net migrants out, without considering new added regions. The main problem in my opinion is demoralization due to western propaganda being better than domestic, but thats subjective.

IMO Russia needs to come up with about 100m+ people in the next century to properly populate the vastness of Siberia and ensure domestic economy and scale required for sustainable growth (as well as to ensure Chinese influence in the Far East is contained). Climate change is helping Russia as more and more parts of Siberia are becoming hospitable to human life. Military conflicts do not help, however these are not new and contained to “professional army people” for now.

You could also argue that promotion of fertility rate is the reason Russia has conservative “family” values and is not promoting LGBTQBBQ+ rights as these are seen as hurting replacement ratios. The target is to promote 2.1 replacement ratio among the population (particularly Christian, educated urban class) through social policies like infrastructure (kindergartens, schools), financial incentives (maternity capital, subsidies) and etc.

Here is a good article about the demographics : https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/numbers-dont-lie-how-russia-is-battling-a-crippling-demographic-decline-13992684

I've thought about this and to be honest i think the vastness of Siberia being in Russia's hands has been a net positive. A population of 140million people could never tap and develop that type of vastness, so what happens it's largely left untouched. To me that's a positive for the globe versus let's say if it was under some massively large (population wise) country i.e. China, India that would strip the wilderness probably at much faster rates. I think it's important to have pockets of uninhabited land like in Siberia, Canada, Amazon, etc

Meanwhile

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#36324

Oct 10 2023 01:51pm

Black XistenZ

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Oct 11 2023 05:22pm

Quote (ofthevoid @ 10 Oct 2023 14:34)

You can "thank" Hitler and Stalin for that. Without the insane death toll on the Eastern Front, in the gulags and during state-induced famines (holodomor etc.), the population of the Soviet union would probably have been 80-120 million higher in 1989. And who knows how the Cold War would have gone if the Soviets had that much more manpower to fuel their armies and economy for half a century.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 11 2023 05:22pm

ofthevoid

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#36326

Oct 12 2023 05:58am

From the horses mouth. John Kirby saying it out loud.

“We’re coming to the end of that rope” referring to Ukraine funding

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1712387045199368334?s=46&t=Clvaf6rKkSLkdAtdE744Gg

Malopox

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#36327

Oct 12 2023 07:25am

A kind reminder of what position EU has towards events around the world.

Meanwhile

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#36328

Oct 12 2023 09:16am

Belgium to Utilize $2.4 Billion in Frozen Russian Asset Tax for Ukraine :love:

BRUSSELS, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Belgium, where most frozen Russian central bank assets are held, said on Wednesday it expects to collect 2.3 billion euros ($2.4 billion) in taxes on the assets and use them to help reconstruct Ukraine, a spokesperson for Belgium's prime minister said on Wednesday.
The European Union along with the Group of Seven (G7) countries have been discussing whether they could use the interest made on over 300 billion euros of immobilised Russian public money to fund Ukraine.
Over 200 billion of that amount is held in Europe with around 125 billion managed by Belgian clearing house Euroclear.
Euroclear declined to comment.
The European Commission said in July it would present a proposal on whether there was a legally sound way to use the funds once the G7 agreed in principle.
Belgium has already moved ahead on its own with its decision to use the tax paid on the interest. Brussels previously said in May, said it would use 92 million euros it had already received in taxes.
"We only needed EU approval to use the interest. We are simply applying the Belgian tax code, which is our competence," a spokesperson for Belgium's prime minister said.
Belgium expects to gather 625 million euros from 2023 tax revenues on frozen Russian assets and an estimated 1.7 billion euros in 2024.
"Last year, it was very clear to us that the taxation on the proceeds of those assets should go 100% to the Ukrainian population," Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told reporters earlier on Wednesday.
"That fund will be used for buying military equipment. We will do that in consultation; as well it will be used for humanitarian support."
($1 = 0.9412 euros) (Reporting by Julia Payne Additional reporting by Huw Jones in London Editing by Christina Fincher and Mark Potter)

Quote (Malopox @ 12 Oct 2023 15:25)

https://i.imgur.com/8sXgKsu.jpg
A kind reminder of what position EU has towards events around the world.

Prox1m1ty

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#36329

Oct 12 2023 02:06pm

Russia have been making a large assault around Adviivka. Large columns of heavy equipment. There is much footage of several destroyed T-80s and BTRs. Substantial losses.
At the very least the Russians could fix the Ukrainians in position in Adviivka and prevent manoeuvre, at best for them they might surround the Ukrainians.

Malopox

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#36330

Oct 12 2023 02:07pm

Quote (Meanwhile @ 12 Oct 2023 17:16)

Belgium to Utilize $2.4 Billion in Frozen Russian Asset Tax for Ukraine :love:

BRUSSELS, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Belgium, where most frozen Russian central bank assets are held, said on Wednesday it expects to collect 2.3 billion euros ($2.4 billion) in taxes on the assets and use them to help reconstruct Ukraine, a spokesperson for Belgium's prime minister said on Wednesday.
The European Union along with the Group of Seven (G7) countries have been discussing whether they could use the interest made on over 300 billion euros of immobilised Russian public money to fund Ukraine.
Over 200 billion of that amount is held in Europe with around 125 billion managed by Belgian clearing house Euroclear.
Euroclear declined to comment.
The European Commission said in July it would present a proposal on whether there was a legally sound way to use the funds once the G7 agreed in principle.
Belgium has already moved ahead on its own with its decision to use the tax paid on the interest. Brussels previously said in May, said it would use 92 million euros it had already received in taxes.
"We only needed EU approval to use the interest. We are simply applying the Belgian tax code, which is our competence," a spokesperson for Belgium's prime minister said.
Belgium expects to gather 625 million euros from 2023 tax revenues on frozen Russian assets and an estimated 1.7 billion euros in 2024.
"Last year, it was very clear to us that the taxation on the proceeds of those assets should go 100% to the Ukrainian population," Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told reporters earlier on Wednesday.
"That fund will be used for buying military equipment. We will do that in consultation; as well it will be used for humanitarian support."
($1 = 0.9412 euros) (Reporting by Julia Payne Additional reporting by Huw Jones in London Editing by Christina Fincher and Mark Potter)

https://cdn.hikb.at/charts/average-monthly-temperatures/ukraine-average-monthly-temperatures.png

Majority of these frozen assets in Belgium are pensions and private assets of common citizens frozen at Euroclear.

Stealing from the common Russians while allowing oligarchs and bureaucrats are free to travel and enjoy their European Chateaus?

Great success.

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