Quote (ofthevoid @ Oct 9 2023 10:27am)
Pard microcosm is a good indicator of how this war will lose steam. Not by some heroic victory by Ukraine taking back the Donbass and Crimea, but simply by another conflict taking center stage while this one fades.
The regional instability in ME is actually positive for Russia, both because it will thin out US aid to Ukraine but the other huge factor is oil. Depending on who enters and how wide the Gaza war is, so much of the global oil that comes from ME could be in jeopardy.
Once the initial invasion was repelled the options were only ever a full support and push back to the border, or a slow war of attrition that results in Russia's victory.
From the US perspective, honestly, both are pretty great. Russia has a dwindling working population and the longer Putin sends working age men into the meat grinder the worse their long term prospects get.