Quote (Vastet @ Feb 28 2022 08:12pm)
It depends really. I can see the possibility of Russia ending up far worse for wear for decades following this, but I can also see the possibility that all the sanctions and disconnection from swift are actually serving to make Russia's alternatives even stronger and weakening the US dollar as multiple countries are forced to join Russia's system to maintain business with Russia. Plenty of nations are keeping relations and trade with Russia alive, so to some extent that is certainly going to happen. Whether it is enough to keep Russia strong I don't know.
One side at least has miscalculated here. But it's possible that all sides (except China, who comes out the only winner in the conflict) have miscalculated. I'm not inclined to believe American propaganda any more than I am Russian propaganda. What I do believe is that Putin hasn't backed down at all. Which suggests the possibility that all current actions were predicted ahead of time. It's a bit of a stretch perhaps, but if indeed Russia was prepared then no actions yet taken are going to do anything but play into Russia's hands. I rather hope such is not the case, as in my opinion it is of value to the world for super powers to hold each other in check. They would no longer be able to do so economically if two separate global economies are the result of the conflict. Which leaves only military options. That is very dangerous.
russian propaganda is a joke. they broadcast in russia that ukrainians are drunks that shoot each other with aks. in the meantime, 5000+ russians are alraedy dead in ukraine. while all the ukrainian dead are nowhere near that including all from heavy bombing and shelling.
here's another interesting point, while all the press in russia and the internet are heavily censored, the troops in ukraine can use the internet that is not censored. they will see that there's a whole new world out there and they will see their own dead.
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 28 2022 08:11pm)
I was thinking about this the other day, I don't know if its on the table but I see 2 options:
1. He installs a Pro Russian Government. in 20-40 years time it may be we are here again and the next Russian Leader is not as nostalgic as Putin and Ukraine becomes independant, with no hard feelings / clingy ex husband.
2. He subsumes Ukraine into Russia. I don't expect this to happen, but from Putin's stand point this would be the better option for Russia on a fast forward 20-40 years (i.e. if its part of Russia and no longer "exists" then the idea of it self governing and declaring itself independant is removed).
ukrainians are impossible to control. with ukraine "fake" independent or ukraine part of russia, they will continue to resist for decades like the polish did under both russians and germans in WW2.