Quote (Meanwhile @ Sep 30 2023 09:37pm)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs
Summary
The content is a video discussing the defense production of Russia and Ukraine. The author analyzes data and statements from Russian politicians, the Russian defense budget, Russian corporate data, and Rosstat manufacturing indices to determine the extent of Russia's defense production. The author notes that Russian statements on defense production are often vague or contradictory, and that the Russian government's story on defense production is not clear. The author also suggests that Ukraine's allies may need to mobilize their defense industrial resources to match Russia's production. The author concludes that militaries require complex inputs and that the impact of critical shortages will depend on a variety of factors, including the combat power of the Ukrainian military.
What are the problems with the Russian government's claimed defense production numbers?
There are two main problems with the Russian government's claimed defense production numbers. The first problem is that there seems to be a clash between the claimed production figures and the relatively small claimed increase in the defense budget. The second problem is vagueness, where the statements are often vague or contradictory, and they clash with other things that official Russian sources are telling us.
How reliable is the information provided by Russian senior leaders regarding defense production?
The reliability of information provided by Russian senior leaders regarding defense production is questionable. Given the nature of the Russian system and the way it encourages corruption and deception, it's possible that even quite senior Russian leadership don't know the exact figures. Additionally, the statements made by Russian leaders are often vague or contradictory, and they clash with other things that official Russian sources are telling us. Therefore, it can be difficult to evaluate changes in Russian defense production based solely on statements made by Russian leaders. It is important to cross-reference this information with other sources, such as observed battlefield fielding and loss data, Russian industrial indices, and the Russian budget, to get a more accurate picture of the situation.
Can the Russian defense industry meet the military's need for continued re-supply?
The answer to this question is not straightforward. On one hand, there are claims that the Russian defense industry is more than sufficient to keep up with the military's need for continued re-supply. However, there are also observations that suggest that the Russian defense industry is not able to keep up with the rate of general materiel consumption and attrition. This means that the quality of equipment in the Russian force is likely to continue to polarize, and Russian stockpiles will continue to run down.As a result, Russia may have to look for alternatives, such as foreign supply or reactivating legacy equipment from storage. While some dangerous modern equipment may still be present, there are better than even odds that the fire support will come from a system designed in the 40s, 50s or 60s.In conclusion, the available evidence suggests that Russia was pretty slow to mobilize additional defense production output in 2022, at least in terms of new-built equipment. The data in 2023, however, does suggest some increases in output and efforts to increase it further going forward, alongside some increase in budget allowances. Despite sanctions, the evidence we have suggests that Russian defense production in some of the examined categories, things like artillery ammunition, missiles, drones, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles, is all increasing despite sanction pressures. However, it is still unclear whether the Russian defense industry can meet the military's need for continued re-supply in the long run.
- -> Russia out of missiles since April 2022
Quote (Meanwhile @ Sep 30 2023 10:45pm)
You should have underlined the word escalation, but as usual you don't get it SMH