I think you misunderstood me. I said the war will get worse, I did not say that Russia would collapse.

You said you hope to be wrong, and I agree. Btw like the General Miley said, and he has obviously some experience on it:

Assistance to Ukraine can be planned for a long period but many things can happen such as a collapse of the front line or the government.

And i will be honest: Escalations too. Escalation is a thing, i have many things to say about escalation.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Sep 21 2023 06:54am

Poland well within their rights not to send any more military aid to Ukraine. Poland has stepped up and done so quickly. They have more than earned the right to act independently of the EU. Especially in light of Germanys reluctance to take a leading role early in supporting Ukraine. We all remember the helmets gaffe.

I think its mainly a political statement for internal audiences with Polish elections imminent; It is not however helpful for Ukraine or for the EU unity to have those statements publicly aired.
Likely also to be a sign that Zelensky pushed too far on the grain issue and that has forced Polish politicians to appear firm on protecting its own agricultural sector.
Understandable that Zelensky would do this considering Ukraines existential situation. Also understandable the Polish government would act in self preservation in the run up to an election. And try to mitigate the effect of Polands absorption of Ukrainian refugees on its domestic powerbase.

In a broader context Poland has stepped up to the plate in its support of Ukraine, likely with also its own interests in mind; If Russia is busy in Ukraine militarily, it is less busy in Belarus, Kaliningrad or the Baltics in general.
Also important to note that Polands military aid has been substantial at 3 billion euros, but that is less that Denmark or Norway. It is less that half of the amount pledged by the UK.

EU support for Ukraine on a whole appears steadfast.

"Over the summer, the EU has sent a clear signal by announcing a new €50 billion multi-year support package to be delivered through 2027, which doubles total EU commitments. The EU’s “Ukraine Facility” is showing a lasting commitment to support Ukraine.  
In addition, there have been important new multi-year commitments from individual European countries, in particular a 4-year military support package of Germany worth €10.5 billion (2024–2027) and Norway’s “Nansen Support Program” worth €6.6 billion over 5 years. Additional multi-year packages were committed by Denmark, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Portugal, and Lithuania. "

The impact of the Polish PM statement in my opinion will be more rhetorical and less of a tangible blow to Ukraine's military situation as it may appear. The effect on the narrative for the EU and potentially on unity is clear but may be reversed if the Polish elections go one way or the other.

Edit: source
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Sep 21 2023 06:56am

From the article:

"While in Ukraine we are fighting for global liberty and the ideology of victory, too many in Moscow and across the world are still caught up in focusing on the tired trope of gender chaos," Ashton-Cirillo said in the video."

No one in the west wants to fight Russia in the name of trans rights, just so people understand lol

I still can't figure out what audience they were hoping to appeal to by hiring that dude. Just made this whole thing look like more of a clown show than it already is.

The conspiratorial side of me believes that the west hiring troops in positions of authority is designed as a demoralization campaign to make the west weak. It seems to be working as intended as well. All for the glory of greater Israel of course

"Take notes"

Sure, look, it's happening, for real:



bueheheh.

People in charge of EU sanctions apparently have the same level of critical thinking and do the same amount of fact checking as our resident pierre here

Using Wikipedia as a source for decision making. Jesus Christ what a mess. No wonder sanctions don’t really work. Now I understand why Ukranian propaganda is effective. A whole generation who grew up without any ability to discern between fake news.

https://www.politico.eu/article/shaky-grounds-secret-slipshod-evidence-eu-use-sanction-russia-oligarchs/

It’s a very easy explanation. Most of Europe was willing to give away their Soviet era leftovers, especially as the US promised to basically replace it with more modern weapons. Those are gone. Now the euros are being asked to buy and actually pony up the cash for war to continue. Even the most ardent supporters like Poland are chafing at it. These aren’t rich nations and when you combine much higher energy costs and how they are spurring inflation, they can’t really keep feeding hundreds of millions into Ukraine when domestic inflation in places like Poland and Baltic states is over 10%. At some point people care more about the price of bread and stop giving a fuck about how Russia will supposedly invade Europe if we don’t continue the war. This is a real threat to politicians in democratic countries. You can only ignore the voters for so long.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Sep 21 2023 09:06am