Crude prices are heading to over 100usd/barrel, this is going to put even more pressure on Europe while offering Russia a welcomed revenue increase. Even with a ~20-30% discount they may offer, they would still be above the average crude price of the last 10 years.

18-19 months after the start of the main invasion there's still a very clear majority of europeans supporting Ukraine's independance while dozens of billions already have been locked for future assistance. Up to 2032, european side.

US power change can occurs in - 16 months - Alot of stuff can be send to Ukraine in this time.

Btw: https://avherald.com/h?article=50e4701a&opt=0

Sanctions.

Provided Trump is in Jail or Dead I dont see the US elections changing US foreign policy, i.e. they are more likely to send even more aid (read: sell even more weapons), then to freeze or cancel future aid.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/10/us-presidents-war-elections-democracy-domestic-foreign-policy/
https://ecfr.eu/publication/brace-yourself-how-the-2024-us-presidential-election-could-affect-europe/

This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 12 2023 09:22am

You mean provided Trump is not in Jail or Dead ?

We have several alternatives emerging like JFK and Vivek which could challenge Biden even if Trump is removed from the race.

Biden is also 81+ and has high chance of literally dying before getting elected again.



Pilots did an amazing field landing. These planes don't land on fields very well. In fact, had this happened during the wet season, this could have had a very different outcome.

If anything I fail to see how sanctioning civilian aviation’s helps achieve anything. Russians will have to revive IL96 and SSJ program and increase production of those to displace Airbus/Boeings going forward.

This post was edited by Malopox on Sep 12 2023 09:30am

It's like everything else: They will do or get bad or very bad maintenance at high price. I don't think they will even be able to "revive" old stuff.



10 years later: OK I WAS WRONG.



This post was edited by Meanwhile on Sep 12 2023 09:49am

It's not really unexpected that roughly 800million people across 30 different countries could poll differing opinions.
This is what naturally happens in the absence of a stifling dictatorship.

1st Bold.

If he gets elected in any outside chance, things are going to get even worst. What he will do is get out of the Russo Ukraine Theater and shift resources to the East.
Realpolitik wise. this will be a welcome move if things are being done on a rational level.
But here are the points that you have to look at.

1. His race and color ( I don't think US or Conservatives are ready for another " Obama " but republican style. )
2. He is still an Indian , he will definitely have cultural ties which might complicate Geo Politics ( It might be a good thing if you are considering getting India closer to the Liberal West, but things can go south rather quickly.)
3. As above, the same reason he shouldn't be elected, is the same reason why Victoria Nuland shouldn't handle the Ukraine Portfolio or Katherine Tai being USA trade representative.

2nd Bold

They don't have to revive the program, they already have a joint program with the Chinese but it is going through some problems at the moment.
The C919 which the Chinese made is now being used domestically.
I don't think the Russians will care much about international travel due to the current conflict and for quite a number of years to come.
Their domestic aviation problems will be pretty much soften from the impacts of sanctions.
They can just buy from China.


This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Sep 12 2023 09:55am

Vivek !!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Ramaswamy#Political_positions

#1 Monotheistic Hindu for republican party

Hindu is probably the oldest civilization. All modern mice can be traced DNA wise back to a mouse family from India from 10000 years ago. Mouse = corn or grain storage. The Brits reduced them to what they are today but not even mongols or all Chinese dynasties could conquer India.

He can't be the solution for the US though. Hindus are the most peaceful and conservative people on planet earth. Any other nation would've had countless wars under the conditions they're living but not them. Democrats need a Mexican president with a cartel past