You are slightly taller than Frodo for sure








This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Sep 6 2023 06:20am

Big part which is underreported is the type of crude that has been drained from SPR. They have so far been stabilizing the market of medium/heavy sour crude (historically coming from Iran/Russia) which is used for eg diesel and jet fuel production. This is now basically running completely dry inside the SPR - hence attempts by OFAC to keep crude flowing by asking buyers to keep buying within the price cap so US can have access to medium/heavy sours.

https://www.ft.com/content/36c5367b-06f9-48e7-9867-20671665c8a7

Whatever is left inside the SPR now represents light sweet crudes from eg Saudis, WTI, North Sea and so on which can be used as well although it yields different products with different refining margins. Historically light sweet crudes traded at a premium to sours - which is now being inverted as west is starved for diesel and jet to fuel planes + logistics + agriculture. Hence these wierd buying schemes with India: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-fuel-oil-eu-sanction/

Another fun fact is that US is using US strategic reserve to stabilize global prices by selling their SPR crude to Asia instead of using it domestically for emergencies like it was initially designed. Something has to break if US cannot refill the SPR at the prices they want to.

Energy transition should in theory help reduce reliance on crude production coming from increasingly hostile emerging markets as you can in theory recycle your batteries infinitely - so long as you generate power from something renewable - however this will take a few decades to really get traction at scale.

This post was edited by Malopox on Sep 6 2023 06:39am

Good color on the different blends. Probably at least somewhat explains why jet fuel has been mooning?

Appreciate sharing that commodities podcast awhile back also. Really wish with time to pivot/specialize into that industry rather than sticking with financials.

Yeah I mean in the grand scheme of things there is still about 300m++ barrels left in the SPR and the last emergency authorization due to Ukraine war in 2022 was for 180m barrels.

They will only have to authorize again in case US changes stance and completely cuts Russian oil off the market with SDN sanctions and enforcing those with NATO military, but that’s not what anyone wants anywhere in the world, despite all moral grandstanding in the news.

Russian oil will keep flowing, Russians will still be earning hard cold cash. Although this is being made hard with non-convertibility of some of the currencies they have to trade in now and absence of equal bilateral trade eg between India and Russia (reportedly Russia has $35bn++ stuck in rupees in Indian banks and they are struggling to figure out what to do with them). In the long run you could foresee stagnation of russian production compared to global standards, but this might take decades.

This post was edited by Malopox on Sep 6 2023 08:34am

Interesting posts about the oil situation guys

Great links as well

16 civilians killed in a Russian missile strike on a market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66731927

Those guys Pepsi'ed

Lol speaking of pepsi, they just recently got added to ukraines list of international sponsors of war, Finland is particularly upset with them it seems

Yes, move the goal or deflect, then ask people to answer silly "questions".





Can also upgrade the ruscist bullshit to level 12D chess so we know how Ukraine is "rekt" in 3 months.



Konstantinivka, Ukraine. Ruzzian missile hit the central part of the city. At least 16 people (all civilians) lost their lives…

Let's say it frankly: those doing jokes over this terror attack deserve to take the place of the victims.



This post was edited by Meanwhile on Sep 6 2023 10:32am