Quote (bogie160 @ 22 Aug 2023 21:09)

Was the USSR inherently unstable? I don't think Putin would necessarily agree. Gorbachev's sin was that he tried to fill shoes a few sizes too big. Had he been Deng Xiaoping the story might have played out differently. The sin of communism is rooted in the Dunning–Kruger effect, it takes a certain level of competence to recognize how complicated economies are, and how little in effect we understand. Communism's great conceit is that central bureaucrats can successfully plan the economic minutiae of hundreds of millions of souls. The off-ramp to communism is to liberalize the economy while maintaining party rule, and as the Chinese understood (and understand), that requires that the rulers maintain the mandate of heaven. What clearer mandate can there be than to say that you have made your people wealthy and strong?

The thesis of the last thirty years was Fukuyama's "end of history". The antithesis is the return of multipolarity and great power politics, and the synthesis is a new breed of nationalist authoritarianism. Nationalism is unique to the time and place, so how it unfolds in Hungary is going to be very different from how it plays out in Turkey, Iran, Russia, India, or China.



Moderation is key in government, but that moderation will not necessarily take the form that we've developed over the past few hundred years.

Quote (bogie160 @ 22 Aug 2023 21:09)

Was the USSR inherently unstable? I don't think Putin would necessarily agree. Gorbachev's sin was that he tried to fill shoes a few sizes too big. Had he been Deng Xiaoping the story might have played out differently. The sin of communism is rooted in the Dunning–Kruger effect, it takes a certain level of competence to recognize how complicated economies are, and how little in effect we understand. Communism's great conceit is that central bureaucrats can successfully plan the economic minutiae of hundreds of millions of souls. The off-ramp to communism is to liberalize the economy while maintaining party rule, and as the Chinese understood (and understand), that requires that the rulers maintain the mandate of heaven. What clearer mandate can there be than to say that you have made your people wealthy and strong?

The thesis of the last thirty years was Fukuyama's "end of history". The antithesis is the return of multipolarity and great power politics, and the synthesis is a new breed of nationalist authoritarianism. Nationalism is unique to the time and place, so how it unfolds in Hungary is going to be very different from how it plays out in Turkey, Iran, Russia, India, or China.



Moderation is key in government, but that moderation will not necessarily take the form that we've developed over the past few hundred years.

Quote (Malopox @ 26 Jun 2023 06:10)

Wagner posted terms of the agreement. Quite interesting stuff, but seems like a major shakeup within MoD.

Shogu/Gerasimov gone.

Surovikin gets to lead Wagner which becomes part of MoD.. Evkurov/Alekseev stays. Dyumin (guy who managed Crimea operation) gets Shoigus job.

A lot of other interesting details, but seems like a massive shakeup of “traitors” as a result of quick actions by Prigozhin+Putin.

Quote (Vastet @ 22 Aug 2023 22:40)

I do think the USSR was inherently unstable, but I wouldn't say that instability was why it fell. With some decent rng rolls (leadership transitions) it could have lasted centuries. But inevitably that system has a power flaw. So much power is concentrated in so few individuals that are human and susceptible to human errors and poor judgements that you get manufactured disasters like the famine and the USSR's performance early in WW2, just to name 2 of dozens of crucial errors Soviet administrations made. The strength of authoritarianism is in how quickly it can react to changing circumstances. But that very strength can be used to destroy itself utterly, with or without intent, in record time scales. The USSR collapse was impressively sudden and chaotic, which was it's destiny. Without a competitor that it tried too hard to compete with and more forward thinking and intelligent leadership it could have kept going a very long time. But not indefinitely. It's doom was guaranteed.

Quote (bogie160 @ 22 Aug 2023 15:09)

Was the USSR inherently unstable? I don't think Putin would necessarily agree. Gorbachev's sin was that he tried to fill shoes a few sizes too big. Had he been Deng Xiaoping the story might have played out differently. The sin of communism is rooted in the Dunning–Kruger effect, it takes a certain level of competence to recognize how complicated economies are, and how little in effect we understand. Communism's great conceit is that central bureaucrats can successfully plan the economic minutiae of hundreds of millions of souls. The off-ramp to communism is to liberalize the economy while maintaining party rule, and as the Chinese understood (and understand), that requires that the rulers maintain the mandate of heaven. What clearer mandate can there be than to say that you have made your people wealthy and strong?

The thesis of the last thirty years was Fukuyama's "end of history". The antithesis is the return of multipolarity and great power politics, and the synthesis is a new breed of nationalist authoritarianism. Nationalism is unique to the time and place, so how it unfolds in Hungary is going to be very different from how it plays out in Turkey, Iran, Russia, India, or China.



Moderation is key in government, but that moderation will not necessarily take the form that we've developed over the past few hundred years.

Quote (Meanwhile @ Aug 22 2023 04:42pm)

"Moderation" or "Unstability"? You already got that with the CCP killing 50–80 million people or with Stalin's USSR, which "stabilized" its "country" using state police and killed 10–20 million people.
You can do genocide, slavery, complete oppression, and freedom suppression while being "stable." By the way, the concept of democracy was invented at least 2000 years ago.

The ideal functioning of a society has been defined in antiquity as when the education level is so high that any adult citizen (randomly picked up) has the skills to administrate the city.
when people who are voting know exactly what they are dealing with.

Your freedom to defend authoritarianism, no one will send you in laogai or gulag for this (here...)

Genocide, definitions points:

Killing members of the group
Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part
Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group
Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

=>

- Executing civilians
- Raping, torturing civilians
- Destroying heating sources (electricity) in full winter
- Deporting children far away in Russia, "re-educating" them

Quote (ferdia @ 22 Aug 2023 23:46)

which civilization of 2000 years ago are you referring to ? In terms of ideals, it goes back to the benign dictator argument. regardless, that was 2000 years ago and we are no closer to your ideal functioning society. On an aside, if you have a source for this ideal, feel free to provide for information purposes.

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Aug 22 2023 05:05pm)

He obviously never read through Plato's republic and have any idea of the Peloponnesian war , what led to it , the characters involved and how Socrates died. :rofl:

I mean if you can't even be bothered reading through the things and links you post and analyze the videos you post. You will have huge problem going through 100s of pages of material on your hands. :P

Quote (ferdia @ 22 Aug 2023 17:46)

which civilization of 2000 years ago are you referring to ? In terms of ideals, it goes back to the benign dictator argument. regardless, that was 2000 years ago and we are no closer to your ideal functioning society. On an aside, if you have a source for this ideal, feel free to provide for information purposes.