The 2008 was a sudden crash, granted it continued for three years until mind 2011 (in my country anyway) my view is we are looking at a prolonged decline, which will take longer then 3 years to reach rock bottom.

The Western sanctions were never able to stop Russian exports altogether, just reduced the market for them and increased the cost, with the idea being that some of the additional costs imposed through the sanctions would eat into Russia's profit margin. Furthermore, their exports could resume as soon as the Western sanctions are lifted. By contrast, it will take years to replace destroyed ships or terminals.

Also, let's not pretend like Western sanctions were focused on Russia's grain exports - the focus has always been oil and natural gas.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 18 2023 05:28am

why?

why oil and natural gas exports and not other things ? why not everything ?

This post was edited by ferdia on Aug 18 2023 05:30am

Because oil and natural gas exports are the big money makers for Russia. Basically their entire public finances hinge on the revenue from state-owned oil and gas companies.

Gas is not sanctioned - Europeans can buy it if they want to.

Crude/oil caps are being subverted by removing eu/us element from trade chain and overcharging for shipping.

Ags and metals were never sanctioned as well.

Gas in indirectly sanctioned because we're withholding key tools and equipment for maintenance and exploration which Russia can't produce themselves, and because we're making it harder for Russia to find insurance for LNG ships which could export their gas to non-Western consumers.

They can't use SWIFT to transact right ? Opening LC or SBLC ?

ukraine throwing everything at the russians

This is real time ?

That’ must have the biggest single stupid decision by the Germans about these sanctions. If you don’t provide turbines to pump gas - you get no gas and can’t blame the Russians they don’t deliver (weaponise) gas deliveries. German Uniper goes bust and you have to spend hundreds of billions of Euros bailing them out. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

LNG is still floating fine: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/spanish-imports-russian-gas-jump-may-nearly-28-total-2023-07-10/

EU is also withholding funding from Norwegian drilling and offshore service companies yet Europe expects Norway to bail out Europe with their gas supplies replacing Russian. Norwegians are openly laughing at Europeans and get US/Japanese/Chinese funding for their drilling and oil&gas businesses. Try solving that riddle lol.