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Aug 17 2023 06:56am
Quote (Meanwhile @ Aug 17 2023 05:37am)
Russia situation could be like being blocked in an elevator with a crazy guy carrying an hand grenade (representing the nuclear weapon).
Even if you have a gun: a shot in the head is too risky and shooting in the leg could only enrage him.

Imho the "best" solution is to wound him with a knife and to let him slowly bleed up to losing consciousness/vigilance (representing Putin/close elite) at this point: take the grenade off his hands.


france imports snails from russia

Quote (Vastet @ Aug 17 2023 05:50am)
Moar projecting by a low class troll.


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Aug 17 2023 06:58am
Quote (TiStuff @ 17 Aug 2023 08:56)


Monkey boy advertising his ignorance in multiple off topic threads now.

This post was edited by Vastet on Aug 17 2023 06:58am
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Aug 17 2023 07:44am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Aug 17 2023 06:33am)
You can't make the argument that Russia's actions with the grain deal indirectly affect the poor because of supply to global markets without acknowledging that exclusion of Russia from SWIFT, then forcing insurance companies to not insure Russian ships which carry food and oil wouldn't have a similar effect. The west weaponized the financial markets and the means for one of the largest global suppliers of commodities to get it's good sold, so like I said, both are responsible.


Russian ships ARE being insured, so long as the price of the commodities is constrained. Russia shipped record amounts of (stolen) wheat last year, and expects to exceed it again this year. Weaponization of commodities shipments has actually improved the plight of food dependent nations. Russia is just trying to hurt the West by spiking grain prices.
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Aug 17 2023 07:45am
https://www.politico.eu/article/eurozone-is-in-a-technical-recession/

Europe is in a technical recession. After Germany, Netherland was hit by recession (5th biggest EU economy), too.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dutch-economy-enters-recession-inflation-bites-2023-08-16/

Sanctions != shooting yourself in the foot

Sanctions = policies which hurt the adversary overproportionally more than oneself. Sanctions are directed. They're meant to leave out univolved bystanders.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 17 2023 07:49am
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Aug 17 2023 07:56am
TLDR: there are secure messaging and payment clearing alternatives to reliance on SWIFT

SWIFT is essentially a secure messaging system helps payments (SWIFT doesn’t provide payment clearing though - that goes elsewhere) and makes banking messaging standardized and easy. You can use alternative systems eg Europe uses SEPA/TARGET2 systems for payments without Americans snooping in. SEPA/TARGET2 is harmonized with SWIFT but is controlled by Europeans (ECB and member states). US controls SWIFT even though it’s located in Belgium.

China uses their own payment / messaging system China UnionPay / CIPS. Russia has developed their own alternative as well (Mir/NSPK) for payments in roubles - that’s why Visa/Mastercard cards issued in Russia continue working internally and in countries connected with Russian payment system.

International trade for Russian goods is moving to alternative currencies / settlement systems which ultimately just increase the cost of your transaction, but those become invisible to EU/US essentially as they are settled elsewhere in other currencies using different banking messaging systems.

Ships are insured by Lloyds if they comply with price cap (crude oil only) and don’t call sanctioned ports. There are no sanctions on Russian metals/ags to my knowledge. You can agree to use non-Lloyds insurance with the buyer/seller directly although this is obviously riskier than relying on Lloyds.

This post was edited by Malopox on Aug 17 2023 08:09am
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Aug 17 2023 07:57am
Quote (babun1024 @ 17 Aug 2023 21:45)
https://www.politico.eu/article/eurozone-is-in-a-technical-recession/

Europe is in a technical recession. After Germany, Netherland was hit by recession (5th biggest EU economy), too.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dutch-economy-enters-recession-inflation-bites-2023-08-16/

Sanctions != shooting yourself in the foot

Sanctions = policies which hurt the adversary overproportionally more than oneself. Sanctions are directed. They're meant to leave out univolved bystanders.


Netherlands is going get hit because US pressured them to stop selling DUV and EUV to China. It is not only Russia, EU is going to get a double whammy.

Semi conductor , chip manufacturers are moving to US. In the end everyone will buy from the US.
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Aug 17 2023 08:20am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Aug 17 2023 02:57pm)
Netherlands is going get hit because US pressured them to stop selling DUV and EUV to China. It is not only Russia, EU is going to get a double whammy.

Semi conductor , chip manufacturers are moving to US. In the end everyone will buy from the US.


relating to same ~

In January 2023, the Netherlands and Japan agreed with the United States to impose controls on the export of certain semiconductors and related products to China. This followed a push by the Biden Administration to ensure the effectiveness of related U.S. export controls that were introduced in October 2022.

and

The Dutch government has formally joined US efforts to deny China access to equipment and software essential to expanding the Middle Kingdom's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities.

The measures, revealed in a letter to the Dutch parliament from Trade minister Liesje Schreinemacher this week, doesn't name China or ASML, but does explicitly restrict the sale of deep ultraviolet lithography machines. These complex multi-million-dollar assemblies used to etch microscopic features into silicon.

"Semiconductors are of great strategic importance for future military and civilian applications. The Netherlands plays an important role in this value chain world," the letter, translated to English reads. "Given the technological developments and the geopolitical context, the government has come to the conclusion that it is necessary for national and international security to expand the existing export control of specific semiconductor production equipment."

The document outlines three goals which include preventing Dutch goods from contributing to undesired military applications by foreign powers; preventing unwanted strategic dependencies; and maintaining Dutch technological leadership.

======

Germany and Holland both getting the raw end of de-globalization.

This post was edited by ferdia on Aug 17 2023 08:21am
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Aug 17 2023 08:23am
Quote (ferdia @ 17 Aug 2023 22:20)
relating to same ~

In January 2023, the Netherlands and Japan agreed with the United States to impose controls on the export of certain semiconductors and related products to China. This followed a push by the Biden Administration to ensure the effectiveness of related U.S. export controls that were introduced in October 2022.

Germany and Holland both getting the raw end of de-globalization.


yup. The peak of de globalization is still some time away, but the textbook is there, the script is written and everything is moving as plan at least from the US strategy.
Basically we are going back to the previous era where the world is being split into two.

But here is the interesting part. You are forcing the Chinese to make it themselves, it will take awhile but they will get there.

Read this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Amendment

and this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_International_Space_Station

And now they have their own space station. Many believed that it was an impossible task for them , because they are being excluded from space program by everyone.

Similarly speaking , nobody believed in the past that the Japanese can make decent automobiles that will ever challenge the United States.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 17 2023 08:28am
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Aug 17 2023 08:43am
cutting ties with, who you plan on making your enemy, so-that when you go to war you can do w/e you want, hurts both ways when they independently make what you wont trade. i dont think certain people got that memo.
I dont see how Russia and China being forced to do everything themselves is a win for us.

This post was edited by ferdia on Aug 17 2023 08:47am
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Aug 17 2023 08:48am
Quote (ferdia @ 17 Aug 2023 22:43)
cutting ties with the enemy sothat when you go to war you can do w/e you want, works both ways. i dont think certain people got that memo.


Ruinous for all. But the US have no choice.
When it comes to choosing between security and economy. Security always comes first.

The concerns that the US have is correct. But the strategy is probably .....you know what I mean.

Should have use Kissinger strategy of using the Chinese against the Soviets and reapply it to the current situation but in reverse. Crimea and disallowing Ukraine into NATO is a small price to pay. But this is before the war.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 17 2023 08:50am
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