Quote (Malopox @ Aug 11 2023 06:25am)
TLDR:
A pro-Western, democratically elected minority (Arab) president got ousted by a military junta.
Commentators argue that Niger was important to France as its base of operations in Africa and a source of Uranium. There is also a significant American presence on the ground with a base and a significant contingent of soldiers. Claims are made that Wagner PMC assisted in the coup. Calls are made to intervene and restore democratically elected president and two main powers that are able to do that is France and ECOWAS alliance of African nations. France is hesitant, ECOWAS doesn’t seem to be coordinated enough.
Stability in Niger (junta or elected) is also important to Nigeria as land route for a proposed gas pipeline to Europe has to go through Niger. I also understand Niger airspace is now closed creating a massive detour for everyone who wants to fly in Africa (Lybia, Sudan, Niger airspace’s are closed blocking off huge chunk of land).
I’m not sure we have good examples of a military coup d etat leading countries to prosperity (Qadaffi Libya? Assuming you close your eyes on his abuses of power). Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world and is proper fucked either way.
Goomshill started a thread here:
https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=101608717&f=119And to illustrate that a bit, Niger was a banana republic not a real democracy, that 'democratically elected minority president' won an 'election' where his main competitor was imprisoned and not allowed to run. Same with previous 'elections'. Ie in 2008 opposition leader Hama Amadou was arrested on charges of embezzlement (of less money than I have in my bank account, I mean, this is Niger). He called it completely made up, but the government stripped him of immunity, imprisoned him and forbade him from running in the 2009 elections while his supporters protested- at which point the government banned rallies by his supporters. In 2010 that government was ousted in a coup, and he returned and won a 103-1 vote for president of the assembly, opposed to the national president Issoufou, who then arrested him on charges of
baby trafficking (!?), again stripping him of parliamentary immunity. He tried to run again in 2016, arrived in the capitol and was immediately arrested, the elections held with the majority party boycotting it while that minority 'won' with 92.5% of the vote.
The point being we're talking about subsaharan, sahel africa, the shithole of the world's shithole, where any pretense of democracy and social ideals are just a paper thin farce. Whether its a French colony or US puppet or client junta of Russia, its not like they ever had true self-determination. At least there's pretty good evidence the populist sentiment of the nigerien people is behind Russia instead of the west, but not even remotely in the sense of ethnic ruskies of east ukraine actually joining Russia as equals, we're talking trading one slavemaster for another.