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#32541
Aug 10 2023 08:39am
Quote (Goomshill @ 10 Aug 2023 16:24)
Can you think of a historical precedent for a long anticipated counteroffensive into entrenched positions being the subject of successful disinformation and counterintelligence?


With Operation Overlord, there was a multitude of viable landing spots for the Allied invasion. Also, in that case, the military of the attackers (Allies) was magnitudes stronger than the worn down, exhausted forces of the Nazis.
In Ukraine, there was basically no other option for the main thrust of the counteroffensive than the region between Melitopol and Berdjansk. No amount of disinformation can make up for a lack of feasible alternative attacking routes.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 10 2023 08:40am
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#32542
Aug 10 2023 08:42am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 10 2023 03:39pm)
With Operation Overlord, there was a multitude of viable landing spots for the Allied invasion. Also, in that case, the military of the attackers (Allies) was magnitudes stronger than the worn down, exhausted forces of the Nazis.
In Ukraine, there was basically no other option for the main thrust of the counteroffensive than the region between Melitopol and Berdjansk. No amount of disinformation can make up for a lack of feasible alternative attacking routes.


Is that really the case? i mean the areas we are talking about are vast.

genuinely curious.

also,
Goomshill
that post about the spring offensive was very good. I really dont understand this spring / summer offensive. Why announce it like that, it makes no sense to me at all. Why even do it. As a defender, it makes no logical sense to counter attack into entrenched positions, you lose defenders advantage etc. I simply dont understand the logic at all when your opponent outnumbers you in men and weapons. kick russia out, but why set yourself a time limit to do something thats not going to happen in a day, month or year.

The more I look at it the more Ukraine seemed to believe that this would work. This suggests bad military intelligence on the part of both Ukraine and the US. Russia did not have any magic weapons here.

The only thing I can think of is that Ukraine wanted to or were encouraged to retake as much land as they could. They believed they could do it, and the thinking presumably, was that having gained some land they could negotiate some kind of truce. But this flies in the face of the rhetoric of retaking all of Ukraine and Crimea, which is what they are saying as a mantra. Every way I look at it this counter offensive just smells bad.

I have no clue how Russia will respond to increased attacks on Russian soil. It sounds like a plausible tactic on the part of Ukraine but I dont understand what it is meant to do, I guess I need to read more opinions on this over the coming weeks/months.

This post was edited by ferdia on Aug 10 2023 08:56am
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#32543
Aug 10 2023 10:54am
Quote (fender @ 10 Aug 2023 12:41)
it's absurd really. only a complete moron would ever fall for the whole "de-nazifying" angle, considering how high the percentage of neo-nazis within the russian army (and sadly russia in general) is, how those fascist are a significant part of pootin's personal protection crew and crucial allies in his not-so-official dealings making him one of the richest people on the planet, and how russia sponsors (and in turn is defended by) fringe far right groups all across the west.

it's such an obvious propaganda op, i'd be embarrassed if i ever argued that's really (part of) their motive for invading and murdering all those people in ukraine...


Btw it is not about directly supporting Putin, too embarassing, but more likely spitting on "The West" (while getting all the benefits of it, including free speech...), which ends up delivering nearly the same result:
Ukraine becoming the one escalating Or a tool of agression, depending of the kind of deflection used. One common rule will be to never talk about the conflict directly, but more likely using distant stretches and cherry pickups.
I guess we can name them "Collaborators". Well know concept here, it is a palpable part of the population anywhere, anyway.

One of the key of this perversion:
It is much easier to question a concrete, measurable, assistance to Ukraine than to make the effort to assess the long-term humanitarian, political and economic consequences of an invasion by Russia.
Yep, they just have to follow this 80 IQ way.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Aug 10 2023 10:57am
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#32544
Aug 10 2023 11:12am
Quote (WNxIrvine @ Aug 10 2023 09:38am)
Do you actually think that if there was a media blackout on the topic that the ruskies would have just been like "holy shit, didn't see that coming!"? :lol:


They’ve literally broadcasted that they will try and cut off Russias land bridge at least 6 months prior.

They should have applied at least some level of misdirection instead of first broadcasting what they will do and doing exactly what they said.
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#32545
Aug 10 2023 12:21pm
Quote (ferdia @ Aug 10 2023 04:42pm)
Is that really the case? i mean the areas we are talking about are vast.

genuinely curious.

also, ^Goomshill that post about the spring offensive was very good. I really dont understand this spring / summer offensive. Why announce it like that, it makes no sense to me at all. Why even do it. As a defender, it makes no logical sense to counter attack into entrenched positions, you lose defenders advantage etc. I simply dont understand the logic at all when your opponent outnumbers you in men and weapons. kick russia out, but why set yourself a time limit to do something thats not going to happen in a day, month or year.

The more I look at it the more Ukraine seemed to believe that this would work. This suggests bad military intelligence on the part of both Ukraine and the US. Russia did not have any magic weapons here.

The only thing I can think of is that Ukraine wanted to or were encouraged to retake as much land as they could. They believed they could do it, and the thinking presumably, was that having gained some land they could negotiate some kind of truce. But this flies in the face of the rhetoric of retaking all of Ukraine and Crimea, which is what they are saying as a mantra. Every way I look at it this counter offensive just smells bad.

I have no clue how Russia will respond to increased attacks on Russian soil. It sounds like a plausible tactic on the part of Ukraine but I dont understand what it is meant to do, I guess I need to read more opinions on this over the coming weeks/months.


for me there are 2 points here

first of all, this counteroffensive was complete and utter madness from the start

there is not a single example in the history of modern warfare, where the attacker was successful against entrenched positions that are backed by both artillery and air superiority

how exactly was this supposed to work when russia dominates the sky and fires like 10 times the artillery daily?

which leads to point number 2, ukraine had to make a move and get results somehow to ensure the continued support of the west

they fully understand that the assistance can disappear quickly based on political events in the west and their own performance on the battlefield

surely the nazis dreaming about marching through moscow also played a role, but not so much in the bigger picture

This post was edited by JohnnyMcCoy on Aug 10 2023 12:22pm
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#32546
Aug 10 2023 12:23pm
Massive piece in WaPo painting a pretty bleak picture.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/

Is there a realistic chance to resolve this anytime soon?
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#32547
Aug 10 2023 12:45pm
Quote (Malopox @ Aug 10 2023 11:23am)
Massive piece in WaPo painting a pretty bleak picture.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/

Is there a realistic chance to resolve this anytime soon?


The war isn't exactly "winnable" by the Ukraine/West.

All Russia has to do is wait. They don't need to try to push in further than they already are. They can simply wait for the West to run out of money or wait for civil discontentment against funding the war, then push in further if they want to.

Just my pragmatic view of the situation. The West has relatively more expenses than Russia does.

The best outcome for Ukraine is to sue for peace and agree to new borders along the current zones of occupation. Then, they can focus on strengthening these borders along with fixing their government/corruption enough to be able to possibly join NATO
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#32548
Aug 10 2023 12:50pm
Quote (El1te @ 10 Aug 2023 20:45)
The war isn't exactly "winnable" by the Ukraine/West.

All Russia has to do is wait. They don't need to try to push in further than they already are. They can simply wait for the West to run out of money or wait for civil discontentment against funding the war, then push in further if they want to.

Just my pragmatic view of the situation. The West has relatively more expenses than Russia does.

The best outcome for Ukraine is to sue for peace and agree to new borders along the current zones of occupation. Then, they can focus on strengthening these borders along with fixing their government/corruption enough to be able to possibly join NATO


Yes but this will mean at least another year of needless deaths, demoralized civilians, slaughtered youths and babushkas freezing to death in bombed out apartments.

I doubt it’s realistic to expect that Russians will just fuck off to whence they came.

What’s the realpolitik play to resolve this asap?
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#32549
Aug 10 2023 12:56pm
Quote (Malopox @ Aug 10 2023 07:23pm)
Massive piece in WaPo painting a pretty bleak picture.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/

Is there a realistic chance to resolve this anytime soon?


No.

i Either way Ukraine will spend years trying to get their land back.
ii Either way Russia is going to bring its Nuclear Arsenal and army up to date.
iii Either way Europe will have to build its army to counter Russia.
iv Either way if the US pulls out of Ukraine all of the above will still happen.

Quote (El1te @ Aug 10 2023 07:45pm)
The best outcome for Ukraine is to sue for peace and agree to new borders along the current zones of occupation. Then, they can focus on strengthening these borders along with fixing their government/corruption enough to be able to possibly join NATO


The Ukraine strategy, based on their stated intent, (is to sue for peace and then) have another war with Russia a few years later. Whether that happens or not is irrelevant and does not prevent i-iii above.

all in my opinion.

This post was edited by ferdia on Aug 10 2023 12:58pm
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#32550
Aug 10 2023 01:02pm
Quote (Malopox @ Aug 10 2023 07:50pm)
Yes but this will mean at least another year of needless deaths, demoralized civilians, slaughtered youths and babushkas freezing to death in bombed out apartments.

I doubt it’s realistic to expect that Russians will just fuck off to whence they came.

What’s the realpolitik play to resolve this asap?


What is your definition of this in this instance, noting multiple things are happening right now.

The War in Ukraine ?
The Restart of a cold war with Russia ?
The heightening of tensions between the East and West ?

This post was edited by ferdia on Aug 10 2023 01:03pm
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