They can still be a country if they call onto the Russians for peace talks. More like a cold peace. Draw a line aka 38th parallel like NK / SK.
But I don't think the US will allow it.

there already was a peace deal in place and the US nuked it

so its safe to assume they want ukraine to fight to the last man

I think if the US ever did allow it, it would be a sign they no longer want to support the war and if that's the case Russia would probably be better off pushing until the Ukrainian government collapses and they can install a puppet regime.

I was musing about the contours and principles of geopolitics. Of course "size disparity" can't be considered on a nation state basis if alliances and blocs are competing with each other.
Originally, I was talking about Japan and the prospect of them overtaking either China or the US, in either the military or the economic sphere. The disparity in population is 12:1 and 3:1 against Japan in these examples, the disparity in land mass is even more lopsided against them.


When it comes to Ukraine/Russia, the disparity in population and economy is roughly 4:1 in favor of the Russians. Two key distinctions though: first, with Russia/Ukraine, it is the larger country which is the aggressor, trying to subjugate the smaller country. In the Japan/USA and Japan/China mind games, the smaller country was the aggressor. Second, Japan is an island nation without land borders to any of its rivals, which makes invasions magnitudes more difficult (in either direction). By contrast, Ukraine and Russia share a long land border without many natural obstacles, so it's much easier to just waltz in there with your tanks.


All this being said, I believe that the 4:1 disparity between Russia and Ukraine is on the verge of what is feasible for a successful war of aggression, i.e. one which doesn't require the aggressor to sustain catastrophic losses himself. Add Western support for Ukraine to the equation and it seems wholly impossible for Russia to crack them without going for a total war. On the flip side, this doesn't imply that Ukraine will be able to crack Russia's entrenched defenses either - and the way the counteroffensive is going right now, it seems very unlikely that they will.

So the bottom line, in my humble opinion, is that there's a very high likelihood of this conflict ending in a stalemate/getting frozen at roughly the current lines. Which by the way is the outcome I was already predicting here on PaRD 14 months ago, after Russia withdrew from Kyiv in early April of 2022.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 3 2023 05:56pm

Wild how the Ukrainians could walk through nukes but the entrenched defenses are proving difficult for them

Today, I unironically read the take that "the sprawling scrub in Southern Ukraine is slowing down the counteroffensive significantly". Basically, because the war has prevented the usual agricultural activity for 1.5 years, the farmland is getting overgrown and that's supposedly turning the fields of Southern Ukraine into an impassable, Vietnam-style jungle or something along those lines.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 3 2023 07:17pm

Mines are going to remain there forever. You have to cut down everything first before using a minesweeper.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 3 2023 07:18pm

Yeah I saw that too, or I assume it is the same report anyway.


I definitely wouldn't want to be out clearing those fields with all the mines around, especially those petal mines, those things are terrifying. Saw a video of one attached to a hedgehog

lol, weeds are a factor

This seems like a silly take. A few weeds or small shrubs will have a minimal impact. Western sources try so hard to basically misdirect or find some excuse because for almost a year they've sold that Russia's army is in complete disarray and once Ukraine gets the superior NATO training and weapons they will steam roll the shovel wielding coward Russians. Instead of being truthful and just saying Russians defense lines are well built and formidable they pen this type of nonsense. It's frankly embarrassing, I said ISW & UK's briefings are kind of a joke like 8 months ago. It's propaganda and wishful thinking masquerading as 'intelligence'

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Aug 3 2023 08:12pm

That sounds about right lol

Someone on Twitter posted "took the Russians long enough to weaponize bushes and shrubs" with this pic