You were pretty specific, I was just responding accordingly



You called me a xenophobe and I wanted to publicly state that I'm not, specific to the context you provided.

You definitely are though lol

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

Its hard to believe that casualties can be anything other than incredibly lopsided against Ukraine when we're hearing from pro-UKR sources about how Russia is using tactics of not just bogging down the ukrainian offensive in mine fields and layered defense with artillery, but also dropping mines behind any advance to reseed the mine fields and cut off their reinforcement and escape. All tactics that have minimal exposure for the russians but clearly have been the leading causality source for ukraine.

The US can ship in weapons systems and tanks all day long, but what's going to happen when they run out of military age ukrainian men?



Same thing that happened in Syria, I guess.
At this point I'm assuming the most likely outcome to this war isn't a negotiated peace, but a quiet fizzle when the inertia has completely stopped

If they run out of military age Ukrainian men they will send non military age Ukrainian men, or Ukrainian women, probably some Poles too. They just need to constantly threaten the Russian occupied areas so Russia has to defend them. They can maintain that type of pressure for a long time with western support IMO, if we assume Ukrainian leadership has no qualms with the sacrifice of those people.

I think the US can dump Ukraine at any point it wants, once it has outlived its usefulness it will be forgotten about by any but the fringe weirdos who nobody cares about and it will be on to the next great evil (China)

The American right is already being prepped for a war with China, if the Republicans win the presidential election I'm predicting they pull out of Ukraine and escalate things with the Chinese, not a direct conflict but probably some wars in Africa and South/Central America.

I believe they will trigger one in South China Sea. IMO the conflict that arise out of South China Sea is a lot more probable than Taiwan.
Miscalculations and accidents is more likely to happen in that Area.

Taiwan is just a distraction....

Philippines will be the main trigger point. They do have a security agreement with Philippines. But there will be a lot of internal conflicts because Durtete's influence in the government is still quite strong.
This will put ASEAN into a very difficult position , the same way that EU is being put into a difficult position due to the Ukraine war.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 1 2023 11:19pm

Yeah I don't think it will be Taiwan either, barring some unforeseen situation anyway.

What makes you think it will be the Phillipines in particular? I really don't know much about the situation there, is it just about control of the South China Sea or is there more to it?

I'll do some reading/watching about it, if you have any good sources I'd appreciate it

Start at 51.37
It is a short 5 to 10 mins commentary.

Thank you

https://tribune.net.ph/2023/07/30/america-hands-taiwan-345-m-military-aid/

I won't comment for the faint one but people with brains would interpret the info accordingly.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 2 2023 04:04am

So file this one under 'extremely predictable series of headlines'

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-753222
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hits-port-grain-silo-ukraines-odesa-region-official-2023-08-02/

Reporters / social media / twitter / etc post a ton about how ships are supposedly running the Russian blockade of Ukraine. Except they weren't actually entering Ukrainian ports on the black sea, but sticking to Romanian waters and then going up the Danube river to ports there. Russia couldn't blockade or intercept them without blockading Romania, so its a clear attempt to bait Russia to the other side of the border, which unto itself is a bit of dangerous attempt to conjure up a casus belli, but also obviously not what the reporters tried to spin it as, 'blockade running'
Then today Russia simply bombarded the main port on the Ukrainian side of the Danube in Izmail and Reni, and Romania is complaining;
https://twitter.com/KlausIohannis/status/1686655318120366080

Ukraine's only grain export path open is going to be overland through Poland and Romania and that hasn't exactly been working out, maybe Russia will start arming Polish farmers so they can do their own maidan ^^