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Aug 1 2023 10:58am
Quote (babun1024 @ Aug 1 2023 12:56pm)
I would date women from anywhere before an American or British woman (white/black doesn't matter). I don;'t regard them as women anymore, just male buddies with a v**** and their days 1 time in month. First lesson to learn from native Africans: they smile and are happy/easygoing, goes both for men and women. I wish our people relearned the basic ways of homo sapiens instead of being rude in mememe style.


You were pretty specific, I was just responding accordingly

Quote (babun1024 @ Aug 1 2023 12:16pm)
I know Africans first hand. They're nothing like Americans with African/European origins (most Afroamericans have at least 10% white genes). Keep being xenophobic.


You called me a xenophobe and I wanted to publicly state that I'm not, specific to the context you provided.
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Aug 1 2023 11:07am
Quote (Mondain @ Aug 1 2023 01:58pm)
You were pretty specific, I was just responding accordingly



You called me a xenophobe and I wanted to publicly state that I'm not, specific to the context you provided.


You definitely are though lol
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Aug 1 2023 10:39pm
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

Its hard to believe that casualties can be anything other than incredibly lopsided against Ukraine when we're hearing from pro-UKR sources about how Russia is using tactics of not just bogging down the ukrainian offensive in mine fields and layered defense with artillery, but also dropping mines behind any advance to reseed the mine fields and cut off their reinforcement and escape. All tactics that have minimal exposure for the russians but clearly have been the leading causality source for ukraine.

The US can ship in weapons systems and tanks all day long, but what's going to happen when they run out of military age ukrainian men?

Quote
Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER referred questions about the counteroffensive to the Ukrainian military, but noted that β€œit has and will continue to be a tough fight for them.”

Even when Ukrainian forces manage to clear a minefield and advance, Russia will use artillery and helicopters to drop more mines behind them, trying to trap units between minefields, according to a person who advises the Ukrainian government.


Same thing that happened in Syria, I guess.
At this point I'm assuming the most likely outcome to this war isn't a negotiated peace, but a quiet fizzle when the inertia has completely stopped
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Aug 1 2023 11:12pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Aug 2 2023 01:39am)
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

Its hard to believe that casualties can be anything other than incredibly lopsided against Ukraine when we're hearing from pro-UKR sources about how Russia is using tactics of not just bogging down the ukrainian offensive in mine fields and layered defense with artillery, but also dropping mines behind any advance to reseed the mine fields and cut off their reinforcement and escape. All tactics that have minimal exposure for the russians but clearly have been the leading causality source for ukraine.

The US can ship in weapons systems and tanks all day long, but what's going to happen when they run out of military age ukrainian men?



Same thing that happened in Syria, I guess.
At this point I'm assuming the most likely outcome to this war isn't a negotiated peace, but a quiet fizzle when the inertia has completely stopped


If they run out of military age Ukrainian men they will send non military age Ukrainian men, or Ukrainian women, probably some Poles too. They just need to constantly threaten the Russian occupied areas so Russia has to defend them. They can maintain that type of pressure for a long time with western support IMO, if we assume Ukrainian leadership has no qualms with the sacrifice of those people.

I think the US can dump Ukraine at any point it wants, once it has outlived its usefulness it will be forgotten about by any but the fringe weirdos who nobody cares about and it will be on to the next great evil (China)

The American right is already being prepped for a war with China, if the Republicans win the presidential election I'm predicting they pull out of Ukraine and escalate things with the Chinese, not a direct conflict but probably some wars in Africa and South/Central America.


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Aug 1 2023 11:18pm
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ 2 Aug 2023 13:12)
If they run out of military age Ukrainian men they will send non military age Ukrainian men, or Ukrainian women, probably some Poles too. They just need to constantly threaten the Russian occupied areas so Russia has to defend them. They can maintain that type of pressure for a long time with western support IMO, if we assume Ukrainian leadership has no qualms with the sacrifice of those people.

I think the US can dump Ukraine at any point it wants, once it has outlived its usefulness it will be forgotten about by any but the fringe weirdos who nobody cares about and it will be on to the next great evil (China)

The American right is already being prepped for a war with China, if the Republicans win the presidential election I'm predicting they pull out of Ukraine and escalate things with the Chinese, not a direct conflict but probably some wars in Africa and South/Central America.


I believe they will trigger one in South China Sea. IMO the conflict that arise out of South China Sea is a lot more probable than Taiwan.
Miscalculations and accidents is more likely to happen in that Area.

Taiwan is just a distraction....

Philippines will be the main trigger point. They do have a security agreement with Philippines. But there will be a lot of internal conflicts because Durtete's influence in the government is still quite strong.
This will put ASEAN into a very difficult position , the same way that EU is being put into a difficult position due to the Ukraine war.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 1 2023 11:19pm
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Aug 1 2023 11:30pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Aug 2 2023 02:18am)
I believe they will trigger one in South China Sea. IMO the conflict that arise out of South China Sea is a lot more probable than Taiwan.
Miscalculations and accidents is more likely to happen in that Area.

Taiwan is just a distraction....

Philippines will be the main trigger point. They do have a security agreement with Philippines. But there will be a lot of internal conflicts because Durtete's influence in the government is still quite strong.


Yeah I don't think it will be Taiwan either, barring some unforeseen situation anyway.

What makes you think it will be the Phillipines in particular? I really don't know much about the situation there, is it just about control of the South China Sea or is there more to it?

I'll do some reading/watching about it, if you have any good sources I'd appreciate it :)
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Aug 1 2023 11:34pm
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ 2 Aug 2023 13:30)
Yeah I don't think it will be Taiwan either, barring some unforeseen situation anyway.

What makes you think it will be the Phillipines in particular? I really don't know much about the situation there, is it just about control of the South China Sea or is there more to it?

I'll do some reading/watching about it, if you have any good sources I'd appreciate it :)


Start at 51.37
It is a short 5 to 10 mins commentary.


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Aug 1 2023 11:55pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Aug 2 2023 02:34am)
Start at 51.37
It is a short 5 to 10 mins commentary.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl7goPRw_eE


Thank you :thumbsup:
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Aug 2 2023 04:02am
Quote
Congress has authorized President Joe Biden to draw aid for Taiwan from American military stocks β€” the same way that Washington has provided large quantities of assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022.


https://tribune.net.ph/2023/07/30/america-hands-taiwan-345-m-military-aid/

I won't comment for the faint one but people with brains would interpret the info accordingly.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 2 2023 04:04am
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Aug 2 2023 06:05am
So file this one under 'extremely predictable series of headlines'

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-753222
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hits-port-grain-silo-ukraines-odesa-region-official-2023-08-02/

Reporters / social media / twitter / etc post a ton about how ships are supposedly running the Russian blockade of Ukraine. Except they weren't actually entering Ukrainian ports on the black sea, but sticking to Romanian waters and then going up the Danube river to ports there. Russia couldn't blockade or intercept them without blockading Romania, so its a clear attempt to bait Russia to the other side of the border, which unto itself is a bit of dangerous attempt to conjure up a casus belli, but also obviously not what the reporters tried to spin it as, 'blockade running'
Then today Russia simply bombarded the main port on the Ukrainian side of the Danube in Izmail and Reni, and Romania is complaining;
https://twitter.com/KlausIohannis/status/1686655318120366080

Ukraine's only grain export path open is going to be overland through Poland and Romania and that hasn't exactly been working out, maybe Russia will start arming Polish farmers so they can do their own maidan ^^
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