dead bodies can't cry

During the Russia-Africa summit a couple of days ago, the African leaders were explicitly rebuking Putin, and they were calling for a resumption of the grain deal. The Western clout in Africa might be slipping, but I think it's too simplistic to assume that this autmatically implies that they will become tied to Russia/China. And there already is a sizable backlash against China in those African nations which were the first to make large deals with the Chinese, e.g. Tanzania.

Also note that the battle lines might not neatly fit an oldschool West vs East scheme. Currently, the ECOWAS countries are threatening military intervention in Niger if the former president isn't reinstated while the coupist regimes in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have declared their solidarity with the coupists in Niger by saying that they would consider an ECOWAS intervention in Niger a declaration of war against themselves. (The militaries of minnows like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger would of course stand no chance whatsoever against the forces of the ECOWAS states.)



Sure, but when grain exports from Ukraine hit the world market, they're still taking away some pressure and will - ceteris paribus - lead to decreasing prices around the world.



Yup, Africa will become a total clusterfuck

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 1 2023 06:58am

This time around, it's not the leaders but the people. They're not stupid. They know millions of aid which is paid by western countries are actual bribes which are never invested in real projects. They disappear in the pockets of politicians. China isn't good at all, they follow their own interests but instead of financing puppet regimes and exporting shitloads of weapons to further destabilize the region they try to lure them with infrastructure projects and affordable trade.
This way common African isn't just a defacto ressource excavator slave for peanuts but gets their living standard improved as a whole.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 1 2023 07:43am

Agree on the bolded in your comment, they are quite menacing to their neighbours. But they are threading the line very carefully because they know they can't afford to be too much of a prick.
Long story short this is what I call the Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

You need a few to balance each other out, but that being said, it might also end up in a conflict which will be ruinous to all.
Which is why, Diplomacy, negotiations and talks between " great powers " are so important.
Powers that recognize each other's sphere of influence and security.

USA that Recognizes Russia's Red Line i.e Ukraine
China's Red line i.e Taiwan
China to recognize USA's Red Line i.e Cuba , Mexico , Central and South America
Russia to Recognize NATO's red lines.

Might sound simplistic but that's how I view it.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 1 2023 07:52am

America's red line is Japan, our greatest ally and most important friend. Japan's red line is Taiwan and the defense of Okinawa. It was always going to be war after all. See you in Taipei, glhf.

Japan Yes.

Taiwan is not Japan's or America's core issue rather a Peripheral issue. But things have changed and Taiwan is now a more important Trump card after losing Hong Kong although it was always used as a chess piece for negotiations with the Chinese.
It is more likely that a conflict will happen in South China Sea as compared to Taiwan. So Taipei is not an issue.

An Amphibious assault on Taiwan by the Chinese is almost a guaranteed tragic end for the Chinese military for the next 10 to 15 years at least.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 1 2023 08:42am

In German, da gibt es genug Interessenverpflechtungen. Hinter jedem Ausgang sind jedoch die EU die Loser. Wir sind nicht nur die Wasserträger in diesen Konflikten, wir dürfen nicht mal das Wasser trinken, welches wir dahin tragen

USA doesn't want diplomacy because they can't win that way. They're bound to lose to China if they don't do anything.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 1 2023 08:42am

I don't think they will lose to China per say. But they will lose some of their influence in ASEAN , that is for sure.
The US Dollar is still strong and will remain so for quite a long time.

You can check with our resident Pard bankers and for their views .

It's funny you say that!
The USA has somewhat reacently threatened to pull aid from certain Africa nations.

As it was said before, "Korea is a dagger pointed at the heart of Japan". Taiwan is not so different. China cannot control the sea without controlling Taiwan. Hostile control of Taiwan restricts American forces to beyond the first island chain, which in turn threatens Okinawa and the Japanese periphery.

I agree that an invasion is unlikely for at least 15 years.