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Aug 1 2023 06:55am
dead bodies can't cry
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Aug 1 2023 06:56am
Quote (babun1024 @ 1 Aug 2023 12:26)
Africa as a continent is sliding into a crisis. Inflation + increased food prices are going to be the next ticking time bomb to go off. Breaking off the grain deal made matters way worse. Africans are openly hostile towards the west now. China is trying to sway western puppet regimes with the help of Russia/Wagner and infrastructure projects their way.

During the Russia-Africa summit a couple of days ago, the African leaders were explicitly rebuking Putin, and they were calling for a resumption of the grain deal. The Western clout in Africa might be slipping, but I think it's too simplistic to assume that this autmatically implies that they will become tied to Russia/China. And there already is a sizable backlash against China in those African nations which were the first to make large deals with the Chinese, e.g. Tanzania.

Also note that the battle lines might not neatly fit an oldschool West vs East scheme. Currently, the ECOWAS countries are threatening military intervention in Niger if the former president isn't reinstated while the coupist regimes in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have declared their solidarity with the coupists in Niger by saying that they would consider an ECOWAS intervention in Niger a declaration of war against themselves. (The militaries of minnows like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger would of course stand no chance whatsoever against the forces of the ECOWAS states.)


Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 1 Aug 2023 13:51)
its confirmed that very little of the grain from the grain deal is even going there

Sure, but when grain exports from Ukraine hit the world market, they're still taking away some pressure and will - ceteris paribus - lead to decreasing prices around the world.


Quote
africa is powder keg regardless of the ukraine conflict, multiple failed states, civil wars, genocide/ethnic cleansings

the overpopulation problem is growing every day

Yup, Africa will become a total clusterfuck

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 1 2023 06:58am
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Aug 1 2023 07:41am
Quote (Mondain @ Aug 1 2023 01:54pm)
That is what Africa gets for not siding with USA and allowing China + Russia to invest in it's region.

If a country chooses not to side with the worlds only super power, they will be destabilized.


This time around, it's not the leaders but the people. They're not stupid. They know millions of aid which is paid by western countries are actual bribes which are never invested in real projects. They disappear in the pockets of politicians. China isn't good at all, they follow their own interests but instead of financing puppet regimes and exporting shitloads of weapons to further destabilize the region they try to lure them with infrastructure projects and affordable trade.
This way common African isn't just a defacto ressource excavator slave for peanuts but gets their living standard improved as a whole.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 1 2023 07:43am
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Aug 1 2023 07:52am
Quote (babun1024 @ 1 Aug 2023 21:41)
This time around, it's not the leaders but the people. They're not stupid. They know millions of aid which is paid by western countries are actual bribes which are never invested in real projects. They disappear in the pockets of politicians. China isn't good at all, they follow their own interests but instead of financing puppet regimes and exporting shitloads of weapons to further destabilize the region they try to lure them with infrastructure projects and affordable trade.
This way common African isn't just a defacto ressource excavator slave for peanuts but gets their living standard improved as a whole.


Agree on the bolded in your comment, they are quite menacing to their neighbours. But they are threading the line very carefully because they know they can't afford to be too much of a prick.
Long story short this is what I call the Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

You need a few to balance each other out, but that being said, it might also end up in a conflict which will be ruinous to all.
Which is why, Diplomacy, negotiations and talks between " great powers " are so important.
Powers that recognize each other's sphere of influence and security.

USA that Recognizes Russia's Red Line i.e Ukraine
China's Red line i.e Taiwan
China to recognize USA's Red Line i.e Cuba , Mexico , Central and South America
Russia to Recognize NATO's red lines.

Might sound simplistic but that's how I view it.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 1 2023 07:52am
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Aug 1 2023 08:34am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Aug 1 2023 09:52am)
Agree on the bolded in your comment, they are quite menacing to their neighbours. But they are threading the line very carefully because they know they can't afford to be too much of a prick.
Long story short this is what I call the Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

You need a few to balance each other out, but that being said, it might also end up in a conflict which will be ruinous to all.
Which is why, Diplomacy, negotiations and talks between " great powers " are so important.
Powers that recognize each other's sphere of influence and security.

USA that Recognizes Russia's Red Line i.e Ukraine
China's Red line i.e Taiwan
China to recognize USA's Red Line i.e Cuba , Mexico , Central and South America
Russia to Recognize NATO's red lines.

Might sound simplistic but that's how I view it.


America's red line is Japan, our greatest ally and most important friend. Japan's red line is Taiwan and the defense of Okinawa. It was always going to be war after all. See you in Taipei, glhf.
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Aug 1 2023 08:39am
Quote (bogie160 @ 1 Aug 2023 22:34)
America's red line is Japan, our greatest ally and most important friend. Japan's red line is Taiwan and the defense of Okinawa. It was always going to be war after all. See you in Taipei, glhf.


Japan Yes.

Taiwan is not Japan's or America's core issue rather a Peripheral issue. But things have changed and Taiwan is now a more important Trump card after losing Hong Kong although it was always used as a chess piece for negotiations with the Chinese.
It is more likely that a conflict will happen in South China Sea as compared to Taiwan. So Taipei is not an issue.

An Amphibious assault on Taiwan by the Chinese is almost a guaranteed tragic end for the Chinese military for the next 10 to 15 years at least.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Aug 1 2023 08:42am
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Aug 1 2023 08:39am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 1 2023 02:56pm)
During the Russia-Africa summit a couple of days ago, the African leaders were explicitly rebuking Putin, and they were calling for a resumption of the grain deal. The Western clout in Africa might be slipping, but I think it's too simplistic to assume that this autmatically implies that they will become tied to Russia/China. And there already is a sizable backlash against China in those African nations which were the first to make large deals with the Chinese, e.g. Tanzania.

Also note that the battle lines might not neatly fit an oldschool West vs East scheme. Currently, the ECOWAS countries are threatening military intervention in Niger if the former president isn't reinstated while the coupist regimes in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have declared their solidarity with the coupists in Niger by saying that they would consider an ECOWAS intervention in Niger a declaration of war against themselves. (The militaries of minnows like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger would of course stand no chance whatsoever against the forces of the ECOWAS states.)

In German, da gibt es genug Interessenverpflechtungen. Hinter jedem Ausgang sind jedoch die EU die Loser. Wir sind nicht nur die Wasserträger in diesen Konflikten, wir dürfen nicht mal das Wasser trinken, welches wir dahin tragen :lol:
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Aug 1 2023 03:52pm)
Agree on the bolded in your comment, they are quite menacing to their neighbours. But they are threading the line very carefully because they know they can't afford to be too much of a prick.
Long story short this is what I call the Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

You need a few to balance each other out, but that being said, it might also end up in a conflict which will be ruinous to all.
Which is why, Diplomacy, negotiations and talks between " great powers " are so important.
Powers that recognize each other's sphere of influence and security.

USA that Recognizes Russia's Red Line i.e Ukraine
China's Red line i.e Taiwan
China to recognize USA's Red Line i.e Cuba , Mexico , Central and South America
Russia to Recognize NATO's red lines.

Might sound simplistic but that's how I view it.

USA doesn't want diplomacy because they can't win that way. They're bound to lose to China if they don't do anything.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Aug 1 2023 08:42am
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Aug 1 2023 08:44am
Quote (babun1024 @ 1 Aug 2023 22:39)
In German, da gibt es genug Interessenverpflechtungen. Hinter jedem Ausgang sind jedoch die EU die Loser. Wir sind nicht nur die Wasserträger in diesen Konflikten, wir dürfen nicht mal das Wasser trinken, welches wir dahin tragen :lol:

USA doesn't want diplomacy because they can't win that way. They're bound to lose to China if they don't do anything.


I don't think they will lose to China per say. But they will lose some of their influence in ASEAN , that is for sure.
The US Dollar is still strong and will remain so for quite a long time.

You can check with our resident Pard bankers and for their views . ^_^
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Aug 1 2023 08:47am
Quote (babun1024 @ Aug 1 2023 09:41am)
This time around, it's not the leaders but the people. They're not stupid. They know millions of aid which is paid by western countries are actual bribes which are never invested in real projects. They disappear in the pockets of politicians. China isn't good at all, they follow their own interests but instead of financing puppet regimes and exporting shitloads of weapons to further destabilize the region they try to lure them with infrastructure projects and affordable trade.
This way common African isn't just a defacto ressource excavator slave for peanuts but gets their living standard improved as a whole.


It's funny you say that!
The USA has somewhat reacently threatened to pull aid from certain Africa nations.
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Aug 1 2023 08:48am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Aug 1 2023 10:39am)
Japan Yes.

Taiwan is not Japan's or America's core issue rather a Peripheral issue. But things have changed and Taiwan is now a Trump card after losing Hong Kong.
It is more likely that a conflict will happen in South China Sea as compared to Taiwan. So Taipei is not an issue.

An Amphibious assault on Taiwan by the Chinese is almost a guaranteed tragic end for the Chinese military for the next 10 to 15 years at least.


As it was said before, "Korea is a dagger pointed at the heart of Japan". Taiwan is not so different. China cannot control the sea without controlling Taiwan. Hostile control of Taiwan restricts American forces to beyond the first island chain, which in turn threatens Okinawa and the Japanese periphery.

I agree that an invasion is unlikely for at least 15 years.
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