/Failed

I asked you to work it out

I condescend because I expect people to be logical and rational when they express their views.

When you say it’s likely, there has to be some background knowledge or fair assessment to make it so.

You realize that a peace treaty to be signed, Russia will for sure demand Ukraine not join NATIO. Most people that have followed this war fully know that this has been one of their key demands in all of this. Yet somehow it’s ‘likely’. Okay.

You do it not just in this thread though. See the abortion thread in which you dipped out after quite literally just describing the crux of the abortion debate while still retaining your condescending attitude.

What was there left to talk about lol. I’m not here to respond to every single comment.

I pointed out the hypocrisy of holding body autonomy of the mother as some ultimate right at the expense of body autonomy of the child. if you wanted to further engage you could asked a question idk?

I won't detract from the context of this thread by diving into the abortion element further, but suffice to say that you often speak with an air of superiority.

Is Russia, short of being able to outright win, likely to prolong the conflict to take advantage of NATO's condition of not letting countries with active conflicts be admitted? Sure. Nobody is denying that. That doesn't change the fact that current NATO members and their heads of state have articulated a "When not if" sentiment about Ukraine's admission.

What amuses a deep and complex mind like yours? Lol

It depends on how the war goes. If Russia cannot break through Ukraine's defenses, what is the alternative? Remain in a constant state of war?

Russia hasn't shown the ability thus far to fully mobilize to the extent required to defeat and occupy Ukraine. A rump Ukraine in NATO might be the compromise.

It would be more apt to state that Russia has not shown the inclination to take over all of Ukraine.

The deal on the table proposed early last summer with both sides tentatively agreeing is that Ukraine doesn't join NATO and gets guarantees from certain countries on it's security with Russia withdrawing to pre-war boundaries. Just recently NATO basically said they aren't considering Ukraine's membership and used language such as 'Ukraine must win the war' for consideration, something that's clearly a monumental task for an admission. What does winning mean? Kicking Russia out of the Donbass let alone Crimea is completely unrealistic, so how realistic is that ask of 'winning'?

Why would Russia give up it's key ask now? They aren't getting routed, they're dug in while Ukraine is throwing western weapons at brick walls. I just don't see why Russia would pull that key ask because they are in a better bargaining position today than they were last year during which time they lost most of Kharkov gains, lost west bank of Kherson, etc.

Today they are in a stronger bargaining position IMO post the offensive failures of Ukraine's counter. Russia to me hasn't really showed the desire to fully mobilize and to completely occupy Ukraine. They can be doing a lot more than they are but they're not, lets remember they had a single wave of mobilization of 300k. If it was truly about occupying as much territory as possibly, there's a lot of low hanging fruit with sparsely populated areas around Northern Sumy and Chernihiv that they can easily take, but they're not.

So with all this being said, i think the likeliest outcome is a stalemate and that same deal being revisited or some slight tweak and variant of it. Ukraine gets outside guarantees but doesn't join, and in return they get some territory (most of Zap, Kherson). Although at this time I find it difficult to see how they would let Ukraine have access to Azov sea.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jul 12 2023 04:03pm

oops!