Quote (Goomshill @ 3 Apr 2022 18:29)
But the whole reason for Nord Stream II was that Ukraine had implicit veto power over the pipelines as a transit country. Not just that Russia could shut it off, but Ukraine could too. Pipelines run through Kiev, Lviv, Odessa. Most have exits near the south of Lviv and the Ukrainian government could have sabotaged them at any time.
This argument was based on the assumption of peace/normal times, not an ongoing war in which Ukraine's survival depends entirely on the amount of Western support they receive.
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We're still seeing headlines about "what if Russia turns off gas to germany". But Ukrainians could have done it at any time, all the Russian-German gas runs through their country. How can the Ukrainians be in such desperate straits that they're basically at the stage of Germany's last resistance circa spring 1945, and still be unwilling to cut off the leverage Russia holds over Europe?
Again: if Ukraine sabotaged the gas pipelines, they would trigger a massive recession and loss of wealth in Western Europe. If the West found out about the Ukrainian responsibility, the outrage would know no bounds and public opinion would do a 180. We'd basically tell the Ukrainians that they can go fuck themselves and are on their own. We all know how long they'd last against Russia in that scenario. The course of action you're proposing essentially amounts to the Ukrainians gambling their existence on the West not finding out that the devastating stop of Russian gas shipments is a false flag.
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And I still truly don't get the Russian willingness to butcher people but unwillingness to flatten cities. They already triggered one of the maximum possible international responses. All the countries who could be swayed by humanitarian concern have been swayed. Countries that have rational self interests and don't gauge this conflict any more than Syria or Yemen, aren't going to respond either way. They already left a very radicalized Zelenksy regime in charge of the Ukrainian government, and now its heavily armed with western weapons. They could have carpet bombed Lviv and Kiev until they surrendered. Or they could have avoided it entirely, and left the cities beyond the edges of the Donbass and its water supply untouched. Instead they did all this encirclement maneuvering, then abandoned it. Unless he's about to nuke Kiev, I can't understand that.
- If Russia's actions were genuinely driven by concern over NATO expansion, it would serve their goals to leave Ukraine as a smoldering ruin. By contrast, if they want to force Ukraine back into their sphere of influence, become part of the Russia-dominated "Eurasian Economic Union" and all that, they want to preserve as much of Ukraine's infrastructure as possible. Likewise, if Putin was mainly driven by concern over Ukraine becoming a functioning democracy and thus a risk of igniting the democratic spark in Russia, then producing pictures of Ukrainian cities being ruthlessly bombed into the stone age would also be counterproductive.
- Such images might also have made it harder for his allies and businesspartners, like China, India or Turkey, to stay away from sanctions or diplomatic action.
- The current Ukrainian government is heavily armed with Western weapons, yes, but only light weapons like javelins and stingers. Until now, the West has refused to give jets or modern tanks to Ukraine, just like they have refused to get involved in the conflict with troops of their own. Russia going for a no-prisoners approach would risk these stances changing once the Western public sees images of the carnage.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 3 2022 11:49am