Quote (Goomshill @ 3 Apr 2022 11:18)
I'd still really like to know what's actually going on in Ukraine. Because it still doesn't make much sense
Other people doubted the warnings of invasion based on some thought of sanctions pressure or oligarchs holding sway or whatever. It seemed to me the biggest part of the calculation would be the question- why? What does Putin stand to gain? Most of Ukraine's natural resources and productive farmland are already in the separatist regions under Russia's sphere, whereas West Ukraine is mostly a true shithole, the poorest region of the poorest country in Europe. Was there some real goal in mind that could only be accomplished taking the whole country instead of the just the best cut of it? Then even when Russia did invade, they encircled major cities and basically stalled out. So at that point and on, we know Kiev was threatened but never actually being flattened. Lets not pretend otherwise, Russia clearly has the conventional weapons power to wipe out a city like Kiev. The allies had far lesser technology in WW2 and look at the bombings of Dresden, Tokyo, Hamburg, etc. If the goal was to massacre everyone, they easily could. But instead we see Kiev is intact enough it still has all major infrastructure and utilities functional. Water, gas, electricity, internet, etc. But we also saw the siege and bombardment of Mariupol, far harsher. So the presumption there was that Russia was making an example of one city, chosen for its far-right contingent, and use that to convince other cities to surrender or face the same fate. But then Russia withdrew from Kiev. So clearly, that's not the case. And its not like Putin is some humanitarian afraid of killing innocent people, look to the atrocities we see in the wake of the Russian withdrawal from Irpin, the slaughter there. And yet, for everything that's happened, the gas is still flowing through Ukraine, from Russia to the EU. The pipelines haven't been shut down or attacked. The Ukrainians are still permitting it. Why? Nord Stream II has been frozen and abandoned, but Russian gas still flows. For all the geopolitical manuevering to literally go around ukraine's transit leverage, that's seen no action so far this war.
It all makes perfect sense if you ask me.
The strategic minimum goal was to create a land connection between the separatist regions in Donbass and Crimea and to seize control over the north Crimean water channel so the Ukrainians can't cut off the peninsula's water supply. Therefore, Mariupol had to be captured whatever it takes, even if it means bombing the city into the ground. That Mariupol was a stronghold of an actual nazi battalion only made the decision to approach this partiuclar city with utmost force easier.
With regard to other big cities, flattening them made no sense. Bombing Kyiv, Kharkiv or other Ukrainian cities into the ground would only produce downside risks for Russia: in case Russia conquers these places, it would amount to a destruction of assets. In any case, it would risk even harsher sanctions, NATO or UN troops intervening in the conflict, creating a destablized and impoverished shithole on Russia's doorstep, potentially creating a terrorist movement which retaliates in Russian cities, further isolating Russia on the international stage, prompting some holdouts like India to join the Western sanctions against Russia and so on.
The gas is still flowing because Putin needs the revenue from the sales just as much as Germany, Italy and other European countries need the gas. There exist no gas pipelines to China* or India with which Putin could replace Western Europe as the customer of his gas. Without the foreign currency he earns from these sales, the Russian state would default within months and the ruble would enter hyperinflation within 1-2 years. I've repeatedly called cutting off gas shipments to Europe the "economic equivalent of the nuclear option" for good reason, the principle of MAD also applies here.
* the existing pipelines from Russia to China have a much lower capacity than those to Europe, also, the European and the Chinese gas pipelines are served by different Russian gas fields. It would take thousands of miles of new intra-Russian pipelines to allow the fields which served Europe so far to even be connected to the pipeline network with China.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 3 2022 09:21am