Quote (ferdia @ 4 Jul 2023 15:29)
thx for posting. i wont hold my breath on a response from other quarters relating to whether Crimea should be Ukrainian or Russian. For all of their comments of peace they go all quiet when the details are explained to them.
I’ll give it a go.
Crimea status is currently disputed as international community largely does not recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia. As there is no effective legal way to make countries leave disputed land known to humanity except 1) outright invading and freeing the occupied land, 2) signing an agreement ceasing this land. As such this is will be the future and current status quo.
Russians claim it’s theirs due to historical reasons and security reasons however they did sign 1994 and 1997 memorandums which makes them in breach of those.
This might change if eg Russia “wins” this and signs a peace treaty that will force Ukraine to revoke territorial claims to Crimea and then if that peace treaty will be recognized by the international community (big if).
I have serious doubts if Ukraine is able to reclaim Crimea militarily as Russians will probably use tactical nukes to repel the invasion of the island. The only way for them to reclaim it is for current Russian govt to be removed and a treaty (similar to eg Brest-Litovsk treaty of 1918) signed by the successors. I don’t think this is realistic as unlike Nicholas II situation of 1917 - Putin has very high support in polls which I feel is genuine from my discussions with Russians.
There are plenty of disputed occupied territories in the world right now eg Northern Cyprus, Golan Heights, Diego Garcia etc. Which essentially poses the same challenge from international law perspective albeit most of them are a lot less known.
I’ve actually had a pretty interesting conversation with a Turk and a Cypriot over a barbecue few weeks ago drawing historical parallels between Northern Cyprus conflict and what is going on now.
This post was edited by Malopox on Jul 4 2023 08:04am