We we we .

Russia might just go and grab Poland + Baltics after Ukraine falls. Do you see "stupid" Russians nuking Western Europe when their drones fly to Moskow to kill civilians there? Yeah, Nato is playing with fire. Imagine Russia doing the same. Are you going to Nuke Russia for conventionally attacking Poland? What if Russia says Ukrainian separatists are invading Poland and not themselves but they provide them with everything?

Poland and Baltics are in real danger btw. Germany and other western European states aren't interesting for Russia for security reasons but those are.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jul 4 2023 05:52am

There is no basis for Russia to grab Poland. If they were going to do that, they would have done it decades ago. its like Finland to them, they dont care.
Russia has tolerated drones in Moscow and have not gone bat shit crazy. They showed restraint. There is no need to imagine Russia nuking the west noting there is no history of Russia doing a first strike.

Declassified documents have shown that the US had plans to nuke Russia during the cold war if Germany was invaded. There is a precedent of the west using nuclear weapons. With brevity, yes, in a scenario where Russia invades Poland, it is likely that the west would respond with conventional weapons first.

understand Russia invading Poland is as likely as the winning the lottery. Sure you can rig it to win, and sure some people can buy all the tickets to win, but honestly...

Russia does not want this war, just as China does not want a war with Taiwan. Russia wants to return to the status quo and China wants to be unimpeded. There is simply no way that Russia is invading Poland when it is not even attempting to overthrow all of Ukraine!

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 4 2023 05:58am

you are both wrong. babun is hilariously clueless, i've just been toying with him for fun. although the polaks (somewhat understandably given their history) are hyperventilating over a possible russian invasion, i don't think they are in danger of that. they are a NATO member and any direct aggression would inevitably trigger article 5. no, poland is not the target.

you are wrong too though. pootin most definitely wants all of ukraine, and more. any concession of ukrainian territory now would only be a second (remember crimea) step, the rest would follow soon if he gets away with it AGAIN. his next targets (in the west) would be transnistria, and likely the rest of moldova. georgia is also still very much on the menu at some point.

your suggestion that they "just" want donbas and crimea outright ignores recent historic precedent, it's pure copium...

I am just saying, Russia invading Ukraine seemed hilarious before it happened. Nato countries test Russian patience with providing weapons which can strike Russia within its inland (drones for now, more is promised to be delivered). What keeps Russia from doing the same once Ukraine falls? I wouldn't be too sure. We opened a can of worms in Ukraine.

You're right, Russia isn't going to give up Ukraine long term. Nato can strengthen its in army in Europe until then. Buying time is worth it.


This post was edited by babun1024 on Jul 4 2023 06:02am

I made this topic before Russia invaded.

There is ample evidence throughout this topic to support the notion that Russia did not want this war and is looking for an off-ramp. When you say " What keeps Russia from doing the same once Ukraine falls" my response is: It is not guaranteed that Ukraine will fall. Understand it is my view Ukraine will probably have to fall and its government replaced for Russia to be closer to the position it wants to be in (i.e. a neutral Ukraine). It goes back to what are Russia's goals. Russia's goals are to resolve its security concerns, not to intrude on Nato's security concerns. The idea is a neutral Ukraine, not a outright war with the West.

I accept the West narrative is Russia Imperialistic etc etc, but when you look at the conflict in Ukraine there is no suggestion of Russia taking over the entire country, rather they are holding what they have. In such a scenario, invading Poland is no where on the Radar.

in my opinion.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 4 2023 06:07am

You can't let Russia take the initiative. Always assume the worst case scenario in security matters. What if they decide to militarize Ukraine and to use it for proxy war with Poland? It's a possibility. Ukraine wasn't a buffer zone for Russia alone, it was also a buffer zone between Russia and mainland Europe.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jul 4 2023 06:09am

It is a problem in all of western civilization to varying degrees, it has been dying for a long time and I'm pretty sure all the chaos and division we are seeing now is its final death throes.

It is sad to see of course, and I think we should complain about how it is happening, despite it being inevitable IMO. I think the West would be better off using its current power to ensure its future prosperity in a world it doesn't control, instead of throwing away its values and culture in some twisted attempt at eternal hegemony.

I accept that is hawk thinking but the counter argument here is that while Russia COULD invade and take over ALL of Ukraine, it has not. It has taken the region that had a large Russia minority, and which was bombed for 7 years, and it is holding crimea, which independent observers acknowledge as being predominantly pro-russian.

I would suggest that the US and Russia have spoken about this and the US is aware that Russia does not want all of Ukraine, noting if troops were on Polands border, Nato would be having fits.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 4 2023 06:13am

still waiting for your realistic peace deal proposal. where is the master diplomat now? still hiding? still dodging?

This post was edited by fender on Jul 4 2023 06:12am