The point is Russia is too passive. If they just wait there and defend Ukraine is going to get an opening at some point. Then you'll see scenes like last year in Cherson. I'd wait out and see how that counter offensive unfolds.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jun 22 2023 04:11am

The Russian goals as I see it :

1. To keep Eastern Ukraine
2. To keep Crimea
3. Probably to stop Ukraine from entering Nato

The Ukrainian goals as I see it :

1. To liberate Eastern Ukraine
2. To capture/liberate Crimea
3. To join Nato

(Crimea is a tricky one noting by all accounts its inhabitants want to be part of Russia)

To my mind when you look at the situation it looks like the Russian strategy is fundamentally flawed, as Ukraine will not tolerate 1,2 and are pushing for 3, while Russia is not looking to overthrow the Ukrainian government. For Russia to achieve its objectives it would need to fundamentally change how Ukrainians view the conflict. As it stands, If/When the Ukrainian counter attack halts, I don't envisage Russian changing strategy, I see Russia just sitting on what they have. What that would mean is that it will give Ukraine more time to keep pushing/push again. Eventually the West will give Ukraine long range capabilities (planes/missiles) and we may start to see Nato troops in Ukraine.

With all that in mind, I see the war continuing and I see it escalating, because Russia is too passive, they react rather then act.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 22 2023 04:41am

Interesting take.

Would you say that in order to stop the conflict Russia has to aim for regime change in Kiev as war of attrition will never yield their desired results?

Diplomacy clearly failed way before the war started.

Yes,

understand I am being dispassionate here, not taking a side, just objectively looking at the situation, leaving morals at the door.
The door should always be open for negotiation and diplomacy, the refusal of same from the west (for whatever reasons) yesterday and today does not mean that it will be refused tomorrow. But there is a problem with current "diplomacy".

You only have to look at the recent US visit to China to ease tensions and then listen to what Biden said about China's leader a day later. When you then look at the minsk accords, (agreeing to something but then changing the goalposts) the levels of trust on the part of Russia, and China, of the West, is pretty low (not rock bottom, but low). That to my mind suggests, even if Russia and China agree to something, the West will just come back for more more more, which is ever the problem, and can be evidenced in history (Nato expansion, the colonizing of the US etc).

Therefore, even if there is a "peace" it is likely to be a period of Ukraine building up for another offensive to retake eastern ukraine/crimea (and again they said this in interview in 2018 - they ever envisaged several wars). With that in mind Russia at a certain point is going to have to seriously think about how it realistically wants to end this war, permanently.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 22 2023 05:58am

Yeah, no reason for the Ukraine to back off unless Russia crushes their fighting capabilities long term. That's why Ukraine should be provided with any means they need for now. The only other take which could end the war would be recession in almost all of EU and US.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jun 22 2023 07:01am

What would regime change look like though? Throw a few missiles at the currents heads of government?

They would just be replaced and become martyrs, imagine western media if Zelensky got dropped by a missile tonight, the hero president dying defending his country, it would be PR gold.

I think just turtling on the land they've captured and letting Ukraine break itself on their defenses is probably the best the option actually, Russia has an abundance of Soviet era weaponry and poor villagers to send, whereas Ukraine is much more limited in manpower and has probably burned through much of its own equipment so is now dependent on cold war stocks from Europe/US.

So to me the only thing Russia needs to worry about is ending western support for Ukraine, and IMO the best way to do that is through boredom.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html

I don't think there's much pressure on Russia at all. Ukraine cannot afford to lose another 100,000 men, Russian lines appear well fortified, and Ukraine is struggling to advance through thoroughly prepared defensive lines.

The conditions for a ceasefire right now are along the current line of control. I'm not sure I see what leverage Ukraine has to demand more than that.

Putin and Shoigu talk a lot and are strangely more self-confident compared to the last offensive. I think they'll make a push of their own before the peace talks can take place. The result is going to be the final peace line.

Footage of Ka alligator and some other helicopters working in tandem. It’s from a pro Russian account but it’s good footage. Air support/helicopter overwatch has been absolutely devastating in Ukraine’s counter these last few weeks. Even if tanks and vehicles are getting past mine fields they have these things inflicting damage.

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1671853629358104576?s=46&t=Clvaf6rKkSLkdAtdE744Gg

country in war = no nato join .