Quote (DizzyBusiness @ Jun 19 2023 01:47am)
I didn't mean to imply that China is trying to do so, just that if I were the US/EU/NATO I would view Ireland as a potential avenue for that sort of strategy.
I'm not very well educated on the scope of it but as far as I know the IRA worked with nazi Germany in WW2 to some extent, so it wouldn't be without precedence.
So given that, if I were the US/EU/NATO I would fund and elevate politicians/academics within Ireland who support policies that bring it closer into their sphere of influence, which means integration into global organizations like NATO. That would allow them to dictate policy changes within the organization that require member countries to adapt their own laws or leave the organization which is usually unfeasible due to the economic investment involved.
yes thats exactly what they ARE doing.
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ Jun 18 2023 11:50pm)
Maybe Ireland itself is the threat? For example, say another world power like China wanted to exploit divisions within a powerful EU country in order to stoke a conflict like we see the US do around the world. Ireland seems like it would be a prime target for that type of strategy, given their history with the UK. I don't think China is necessarily planning that or anything but I think the US wants to defend against what it would do in China's situation, if that makes sense.
We have come a long way, we no longer fear or dislike England. We just pity them now, its like they had a fatal car crash and are brain damaged. no one wants to see that happen to anyone.
Quote (ofthevoid @ Jun 19 2023 03:13am)
While I generally agree with the decline of the US and China ascending, lately i'm starting to be a bit skeptical of the doom scenarios.
US debt is an issue and the US is overstretched but I don't think the decline will be as severe as people expect it. We (the US) remain the tech hub of the world, with tons of capital from all over flowing in here, which is an immensely positive sign. What's more likely to happen is as people like RFK Jr & other start to get a critical mass of followers the mainstream politicians wont be able to keep ignoring runaway military spending. It's already front and center with the new spending bill having language to freeze military spending (this however excludes spending for Ukraine which is being funneled into discretionary)
So what's most likely to happen, maybe not in the next election or one after that, but at some point, grown ups will say ok, military spending has to come down as a %. It's just not feasible to be spending as much as we do, in peace time, and rising debt/debt servicing will put even more pressure on it. Our military interference may just quietly fade in the next 20-30 years as internal issues crowd out that as a priority.
As far as China, they are heading for a huge population decline cliff, and that's an immense challenge. Countries like Japan are living through that right now, and it's not pretty, with working age population slated to shrink by 20% by 2040. I think China is going to have big internal issues, doesn't necessarily mean they won't ascend, but it's not all roses for them, still a lot of challenges.
That would be a policy shift, and it remains to be seen when it will happen. certainly not in the next few years however.
Also, yes there are alot of articles about China (and Japan, and alot of developed countries) relating to age population etc. I think the fact that China is a dictatorship offsets this somewhat (remember I am removing my view of ideology here), and as they value life differently, they dont mind breaking a few eggs to get to where they want to be by 2040? 2050? With a unified plan like this, with no one in the way (or if ppl are in the way, they are removed), I think China will overcome their internal age/population issue.
I watched a few interesting video's recently which put forward that the belt and roads is a shortcut to avoiding the US - rather then navigate around its Navy (which surrounds China) they are looking to create land routes, which would bypass blockades/troubled waters. It was interesting to read/listen to.
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ Jun 19 2023 02:00am)
Speaking from experience?
I dont think he got it, but I did teehehe.
This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 19 2023 02:13am