Quote (babun1024 @ Jun 18 2023 03:37pm)
Historically, things which don't make sense sort themselves out over time. The US trying to tell China what they're supposed to do from their Island without neighbouring/having a border with China or having any cultural ties is stupid af. The US is bound to fail longterm because of "overstretching", a thing any empire in history was confronted with. Europe should have an army and should take care of its security itself. The US shouldn't be needed. EU is way too decadent/ complacent as of now. That's not US' fault.
We'll have a multipolar world some day where every continent has a say. I am afraid, the US is going to fall hardest because to this day they don't have a proper culture/identity. Europe is going to suffer the most but bounce back later.
The final nail on the coffin was the US and allies freezing Russia's assets in the banks/privat sector. Petrodollar and printing more dollars won't work anymore. A semi bankrupt state is going to be forced to live within its means by abandoning and retreating from their bases all around the world. Without bases and close partners, the US is just North America.
China isn't interested in a war with the US at all. The US is already losing as of now. The US wants war because otherwise they won't stand a chance in 15-20 years to come.
China's plan to get rid of the US in their region (Taiwan) is very different from what being projected in MSM. They're going to surround Taiwan not allowing any craft to enter or exit its borders until they capitulate. No naval invasion in the works because it's stupid. The US wanted to make new "freedom fighters" out of Uigurs but that failed big time by China's response. I don't support in any way and totally condemn how China "solved" their problem but by doing so they prevented an Ukraine.
While I generally agree with the decline of the US and China ascending, lately i'm starting to be a bit skeptical of the doom scenarios.
US debt is an issue and the US is overstretched but I don't think the decline will be as severe as people expect it. We (the US) remain the tech hub of the world, with tons of capital from all over flowing in here, which is an immensely positive sign. What's more likely to happen is as people like RFK Jr & other start to get a critical mass of followers the mainstream politicians wont be able to keep ignoring runaway military spending. It's already front and center with the new spending bill having language to freeze military spending (this however excludes spending for Ukraine which is being funneled into discretionary)
So what's most likely to happen, maybe not in the next election or one after that, but at some point, grown ups will say ok, military spending has to come down as a %. It's just not feasible to be spending as much as we do, in peace time, and rising debt/debt servicing will put even more pressure on it. Our military interference may just quietly fade in the next 20-30 years as internal issues crowd out that as a priority.
As far as China, they are heading for a huge population decline cliff, and that's an immense challenge. Countries like Japan are living through that right now, and it's not pretty, with working age population slated to shrink by 20% by 2040. I think China is going to have big internal issues, doesn't necessarily mean they won't ascend, but it's not all roses for them, still a lot of challenges.