Quote (Thor123422 @ 27 Oct 2020 07:10)
Biden is pulling ahead in PA a week before the election and if Trump loses that he's sunk. It might be over early on election night and not even be close.
Not necessarily. Trump could lose PA based on Philadelphia and still pull out close victories in Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida, to win a narrow 270-268 or 269-269 victory.
(Based on how NE-2 goes. Note that in this scenario, Trump will definitely win ME-2 and Republicans are almost guaranteed to control 26+ state delegations in the contingent election in the House.)
According to 538's model, locking FL and NC for Trump and PA for Biden brings us back to square one, with Trump having a conditional win probability of 12%:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#PA:0,FL:1,NC:1But yes, this is of course grasping at straws like crazy. This scenario where Trump holds AZ and NC while losing PA can only materialize if black turnout surges relative to white turnout while Trump overperforms his polls with suburban whites. The opposite seems more likely: suburban whites moving away from Trump and black turnout being closer to its 2016 than its 2012 levels.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 27 2020 02:59am