d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > Democrat Division Megathread
Prev12829303132205Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 54,190
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Apr 1 2019 07:45pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ 2 Apr 2019 02:32)
The Senate is safe R until 2022, when it will flip to D. That's why the ideal scenario is Trump winning in 2020 so that there is a guaranteed D majority Congress starting in 2022 that can pass things like M4A right out the gate in 2024. RBG is the dangerous part of this.

The Democratic leadership in closed door meetings are trying to decide if winning in 2020 and then losing the House in 2022 and the Presidency in 2024 is worth risking RBG living for two more years.


Even if Dems flip the Senate in 2022, they wont achieve a supermajority, so Republicans could still filibuster most bills, and they could definitely prevent President Trump's veto from getting overwritten. (I dont think the Dems would reach the 290 votes needed in the House either.)
So they could pass a ton of symbolic bills which would die either in the Senate filibuster or on Trump's desk. In 2024, there will once again be 21 Dems, 2 independents who caucus with the Dems and just 11 Republicans on the Senate ballot. So even if Dems win a small majority in the Senate in 2022, there's a good chance they lose it again in 2024 and dont hold the Senate when their new president is sworn in in early 2025 in your scenario.



So no, I dont think that this specific argument for preferring a 2nd Trump term makes sense from the pov of a Democrat/liberal/progressive/leftist.
The more convincing argument imho is that Trump is an inefficient president who wastes the time when Rs are on top without passing lasting legislation; and that he is so divisive and erratic that he is the Democrats' best campaign worker.

Also... who says if the Dems win the WH in 2020 that they would lose it again in 2024?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 1 2019 07:48pm
Member
Posts: 61,688
Joined: Mar 14 2006
Gold: 28.77
Apr 1 2019 07:51pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 1 2019 06:45pm)
Even if Dems flip the Senate in 2022, they wont achieve a supermajority, so Republicans could still filibuster most bills, and they could definitely prevent President Trump's veto from getting overwritten. (I dont think the Dems would reach the 290 votes needed in the House either.)
So they could pass a ton of symbolic bills which would die either in the Senate filibuster or on Trump's desk. In 2024, there will once again be 21 Dems, 2 independents who caucus with the Dems and just 11 Republicans on the Senate ballot. So even if Dems win a small majority in the Senate in 2022, there's a good chance they lose it again in 2024 and dont hold the Senate when their new president is sworn in in early 2025 in your scenario.



So no, I dont think that this specific argument for preferring a 2nd Trump term makes sense from the pov of a Democrat/liberal/progressive/leftist.
The more convincing argument imho is that Trump is an inefficient president who wastes the time when Rs are on top without passing lasting legislation; and that he is so divisive and erratic that he is the Democrats' best campaign worker.

Also... who says if the Dems win the WH in 2020 that they would lose it again in 2024?


It may not make sense to a center right liberal but it definitely makes sense to a leftist.

All I can say is watch my predictions come true over the next 4 years. I was right in 2016, I expect I am right this time, too. Not because I think I'm smart or anything, but because I run a company that gives me deep access to the Democratic Party and their leadership and this is legitimately what is being discussed.

This post was edited by inkanddagger on Apr 1 2019 07:53pm
Member
Posts: 54,190
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Apr 1 2019 07:53pm
Ok, so this is all getting too complicated.

The tldr in my opinion is this:

For the forseeable future, I dont see the Democrats simultaneously holding the White House and the Senate.


edit: deleted a part of my prediction which was nonsense.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 1 2019 07:55pm
Member
Posts: 54,190
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Apr 1 2019 07:54pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ 2 Apr 2019 02:51)
It may not make sense to a center right liberal but it definitely makes sense to a leftist.

All I can say is watch my predictions come true over the net 4 years. I was right in 2016, I expect I am right this time, too.


Sorry, I only joined PaRD after the 2016 campaign - what was your prediction in 2016?
Member
Posts: 61,688
Joined: Mar 14 2006
Gold: 28.77
Apr 1 2019 07:54pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 1 2019 06:53pm)
Ok, so this is all getting too complicated.

The tldr in my opinion is this:

For the forseeable future, I dont see the Democrats simultaneously holding the White House and the Senate, and I dont see the Republicans simultaneously holding the White House and the House of Representatives.
Imho, we're on track to maaaany years of split government.
Complete and utter gridlock is the new norm.


Gridlock is good.
Member
Posts: 54,190
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Apr 1 2019 07:57pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ 2 Apr 2019 02:54)
Gridlock is good.


from the point of view of someone on the far left, yes.

if you consider everything the republicans do to be bad; and also oppose 80% of the agenda of the democratic party; and are only interested in passage of sweeping far-left policies like M4A, and nothing else, then what you say makes sense.
Member
Posts: 64,763
Joined: Oct 25 2006
Gold: 0.00
Apr 1 2019 08:28pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 1 2019 07:57pm)
from the point of view of someone on the far left, yes.

if you consider everything the republicans do to be bad; and also oppose 80% of the agenda of the democratic party; and are only interested in passage of sweeping far-left policies like M4A, and nothing else, then what you say makes sense.


I've actually heard far more from the right that gridlock is good. It was a lot of Republicans excuse for the obstruction during the Obama years. The system was working as it should since no party had full control.
Member
Posts: 54,190
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Apr 1 2019 08:37pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 2 Apr 2019 03:28)
I've actually heard far more from the right that gridlock is good. It was a lot of Republicans excuse for the obstruction during the Obama years. The system was working as it should since no party had full control.


Well, the left has been winning most of the culture war(s), so the right has been the side which was on the defensive most of the time over the last 15 or so years.
There was a short period of time from Trump's election in late 2016 until the healthcare debacle in the summer of 2017 where it seemed like the right might, for the first time in a long time, get to play some offense of their own, but that dream turned into a nightmare when McCain gave his thumbs down.

Right now, they seem to be playing defense once again, hoping that the Democrats cannibalize themselves.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 1 2019 08:37pm
Member
Posts: 64,763
Joined: Oct 25 2006
Gold: 0.00
Apr 1 2019 08:41pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 1 2019 08:37pm)
Well, the left has been winning most of the culture war(s), so the right has been the side which was on the defensive most of the time over the last 15 or so years.
There was a short period of time from Trump's election in late 2016 until the healthcare debacle in the summer of 2017 where it seemed like the right might, for the first time in a long time, get to play some offense of their own, but that dream turned into a nightmare when McCain gave his thumbs down.

Right now, they seem to be playing defense once again, hoping that the Democrats cannibalize themselves.


I mean, conservatism is by its very nature defensive. They do not build, they seek to maintain previously established hierarchies. That's what makes them conservatives.
Member
Posts: 33,928
Joined: Oct 9 2008
Gold: 2,528.52
Apr 1 2019 09:25pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Apr 1 2019 09:28pm)
I've actually heard far more from the right that gridlock is good. It was a lot of Republicans excuse for the obstruction during the Obama years. The system was working as it should since no party had full control.


The Democrats, being the cunts they are, have brought the idea much farther than anyone could have ever imagined. Only a screaming toddler would obstruct EVERY judicial nominee.

Quote (Thor123422 @ Apr 1 2019 09:41pm)
I mean, conservatism is by its very nature defensive. They do not build, they seek to maintain previously established hierarchies. That's what makes them conservatives.


Derp. All modern computer advancements were created by the Republican policies of the 80's.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Apr 1 2019 09:27pm
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
Prev12829303132205Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll