Quote (Black XistenZ @ 27 May 2023 01:02)
Yes, I'm from Germany. :)
I agree the US benefit from NATO and from their military alliance with Japan and SK, and would be worse off if these allies were completely self-reliant. I think the situation in Europe is different from the one in East Asia though. The strategic conflict with China was a long time coming, so US strategists have had an interest in the so-called "pivot to Asia" for quite some time. This, in turn, means that they have an interest in Europe being able to hold its own, so that the US can shifts its focus and resources more toward the Pacific region. So I don't think their pleas for Germany et al. to spend more on defense were phony.
This also sheds a new light on the geostrategic implications of the current war in Ukraine: the US have a strong geostrategic interest in the Russian military being worn down to the point where their offensive capacities are exhausted for years to come. Since Russia is the only feasible military threat to Europe, such a situation would mean that Europe is safe on its own (at least for some time) and the US are free to finally go all in with their pivot to Asia. Likewise, the Chinese have a geostrategic interest in prolonging this conflict to delay this development and buy themselves more time.
So, simply put: the US don't want this war to end before the Russian army is depleted and thoroughly run-down, but they would prefer to arrive at this outcome as quickly as possible (without risking WW3). The Chinese, by contrast, have a strong interest in prolonging the war of attrition and thus keeping the US tied up on the other side of the globe while they can play catch-up.
OH MY GOD I can totally agree with this , a week back I was listening to John Mearsheimer's interview with the Ex Finance Minister of Indonesia and he also said that the Chinese wanted to prolong the war as well. I was thinking about it, although the Chinese seems to be trying to put both Ukraine and Russia into some kind of peace talks, I thought to myself very hard as the events begin to unfold one after another and I was saying to myself , it is not that simple. The Americans don't want it to stop and the Chinese wanted it to prolong a little more at least until the next Presidential election in the United States.
If Ukraine and Russia is going to cease fire , it will at best be a cold peace and this will not be settled between them for at least half a century and even then it is a stretch.
In regards to Pivot to Asia, I clearly remembered my Ex Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew telling the Americans since the Clinton administration, but they decided not to listen then and use a "
Engage and Hedge " strategy instead. It was not until Trump got into office that the republicans and foreign policy establishment started to take this issue seriously.
Whatever you see Biden and his administration is doing at the moment , doubling down one after another, their concept was nevertheless proposed and discussed and planned out by Robert Blackwill.
This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on May 26 2023 11:17am