Quote (Prox1m1ty @ May 26 2023 04:13pm)

All the appeasers in here hoping the western hegemony collapses.

Keep dreaming and get used to it.

Thr west is best.

Quote (Malopox @ 26 May 2023 22:23)

I assume the plan is to either:

a) force Russians out of Donbass/Crimea through decisive military action using provided matériel. Russians will sue for peace as they will realize the case is lost and will turn over their foreign reserves to help Blackrock rebuild Ukraine.

b )drag the war or freeze the conflict long enough for Putin to either die of natural causes or to either orchestrate coup or wait for Putins inner circle to take him out and replace Russian top brass with pro-western leaders who will sign a ceasefire and will give Ukraine back their conquered lands.

I’m not sure any of those are realistic at this point in time. Plan A requires taking over Crimea and there is a very big chance Russians will announce full mobilization (bringing in 10-20 million soldiers) and will start nuking things in self-defence. This will cause catastrophic military and civilian casualties and will irradiate fertile Ukranian soil crippling food production for decades. This will be pretty dire situation as this will be condemned by most of the nations worldwide and Russia will probably lose support of China/India/and whoever was still there. Russia will become an outcast nation. An UN SC intervention will be proposed which will be vetoed by Russia which will cause UN SC crisis and possible dissolution of UN SC with Russia being kicked out. I doubt a full scale invasion of Russia will happen as people are still scared of getting nuked. The only way I see an invasion happen if Russia would shatter into states a-la Balkans and you would be able to pick them off one by one starting with those that will not inherit nuclear capabilities (similar fashion as Former Soviet Block was picked up apart by NATO, rinse and repeat).

Plan B assumes that whoever comes after Putin will change strategy - which in my personal view is not realistic as Russian national pride will be hurt and it will be difficult to find a willing negotiator as he will be immediately assasinated by nationalists as he or she will be viewed as a traitor of the whole Russian heritage.

Both plans will result in significant turmoil in Eurasia with several failed states being created and hundreds of millions in distress for decades. I’m not sure Europeans would enjoy this.

I’m hoping cool heads will prevail before we get to the nuking stage.

Quote (ferdia @ 26 May 2023 15:29)

I really struggle with the feasibility of the ukrainian plan. they backed out of a deal last year because they were losing 2 slices of cake. this year 3 slices of cake are gone and next year there might be no cake left. If russia sees the war as an existential threat (regardless of whether it is an existential threat or not) then thats what it is. In such a scenario, regardless of capabilities, it is very difficult to see a ukrainian win where they somehow manage to get russia to regurgitate whats left of the cake. "here is your cake back, well, whats left of it, is very unlikely to happen".

And in this regard, I, and others, question why the west believes they will "win" and continue with this policy of enabling ukraine to fight to the last man.

meanwhile the de-globalization policies of america is catapulting china's own industries into orbit, hastening the international (if not US) dependence on china, as a viable alternative.

all very confusing what the US is doing right now.

Russia was irrelevant, China was the issue, I just dont see the rationale for pushing all of Russia over under China's umbrella. I am flabbergasted that there is no recognition of this.

Quote (Ironfister @ 26 May 2023 22:32)

You still dont understand US politics? In order to stay one of world leaders they need to maintain friends/allies in Europe and Asia, using lowest possible cost.
Ukrainians want to fight Russian, they just need little assistance, little ammunition, little $$. Not a single drop of American blood needed. No western infrastructure damaged, since the war takes place in Ukraine.
This is much, much cheaper than defending Germany spilling USA soldiers blood, and destroying german infrastructure.
Also Germany are not really closest USA allies, because they play their own politics.
Ukraine, Poland, Baltics, Czechia are close allies.
They will be a nice firewall against Russians, that lets USA focus on Asia.

Quote (Ironfister @ 26 May 2023 16:32)

You still dont understand US politics? In order to stay one of world leaders they need to maintain friends/allies in Europe and Asia, using lowest possible cost.
Ukrainians want to fight Russian, they just need little assistance, little ammunition, little $$. Not a single drop of American blood needed. No western infrastructure damaged, since the war takes place in Ukraine.
This is much, much cheaper than defending Germany spilling USA soldiers blood, and destroying german infrastructure.
Also Germany are not really closest USA allies, because they play their own politics.
Ukraine, Poland, Baltics, Czechia are close allies.
They will be a nice firewall against Russians, that lets USA focus on Asia.

Quote (Ironfister @ May 26 2023 03:31pm)

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

Since the war began, the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support.
Lets say 1/3 of that was humanitarian help.
So that leaves us with 50billion USD.
Lets say EU gave as much. So we have 100billion total.
Where trillions you talking about?
Ukrainians are fighting vs 100mln Russian people.
So apparently US/EU spent only 1000usd to stop a single Russian during 15months. per month of war that was only like 60usd per head. And 60usd is about 3hours of work for an average person.
While the Russian spend like 30hours per month.
So US/EU spending is only like 10% of Russian spending.
Russian is depleting its resources.
West is doing a good deal on that.

Quote (Norlander @ 26 May 2023 16:52)

Quote (Meanwhile @ 26 May 2023 17:07)

I read elsewhere that F16s are not very useful, maybe this money should be used in providing new generation of jamming-proof drones, but maybe Ukrainians have a plan, no idea.
Maintenance cost alot.

Quote (Bananii @ May 26 2023 03:30pm)

Yes, youre against worldpeace, we all undetstood :wacko: