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May 26 2023 07:16am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ May 25 2023 10:08pm)
Remember you thought the war would be over in 3 months?

Maybe avoid making predictions kremboy :D


Would've been over in 3 months without massive Western support

Would've saved a couple trillion dollars too if you add everything up

Emotional trash

#D1shonesty
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May 26 2023 07:29am
Quote (Ironfister @ 26 May 2023 14:42)
When the Russians attacked Finland, they lost 5 soldiers for every single finnish soldier. 350k soviets vs 70k finnish people. Despite Finland having little tanks, planes.
Fines did an excellent job defending. I'm in awe, for sure they did much better than French or Polish people during ww2.
Also there are 188000 lakes in Finland.
And its difficult to attack across water. We have seen it many times even in current war, with all the modern technologu, where both sides couldnt really advance across water and suffered heavy casualties when they tried.
No other country has that many lakes.
Finnish leader told the Soviet dictator: "I am old now, but you must remember that if you enter Finland, they will shoot at you from behind every bush and stone." And Stalin probably took this into account. Will you have such a level of citizenship self defense in another countries? I dont think so. French people gave up to Hitler in like 3 weeks, and then resistance was very little.
Yet if the Russian motivation were higher, they would attack Finland anyway.
That's the reason that Finnish people joined NATO recently, because they have seen Putin motivation to conquest higher than it was in the past, even during the cold war.


Are you talking about the first Finnish war? How’s that related to my comment about economic development of states that were formally controlled by Russian Empire / USSR?

Losses in first Finnish war were quite staggering for the Soviet Union indeed. Finnish put up a good fight as they knew their lands and how to fight during the winter and in the swamps. Soviets came badly prepared as they just rolled over Poland that didnt put up any resistance. They were worried (rightfully, in hindsight) that Finland would soon ally itself with Nazi Germany and this would enable Germany to attack USSR from the north, laying siege to eg Leningrad (ha!). They decided to invade preemptively under questionable casus belli of a border incident which got USSR expelled from League of Nations (and served as a catalyst for eventual demise of League of Nations).

Soviets did manage to achieve a victory but it turned out Pyrrhic. in hindsight. Soviets took over big chunks of Lapland as well as pushing the border 50km away from Leningrad all the way to Vyborg. I’ve read accounts that this fumbled invasion emboldened and convinced Hitler to assume the rest of Soviet forces are as badly prepared and inept and USSR can be rolled over in a few months via a Blitzkrieg.

Finland did join Nazi Germany 15 months after in a second USSR-Finnish conflict laying siege to Leningrad which can be argued was one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes of the Second World War. Eventually USSR managed to turn the tide of the war and liberate Leningrad advancing fast on Helsinki. Finnish government sued for peace and left Second World War conflict.

Am I missing anything?

/edit: strongly reccomend two movies about the second Finnish conflict: (Cuckoo, 2002) a movie in three languages, Russia, Finnish and Saami. It’s quite heartwarming and shows tragedies of simple people who had to fight in this brutal war. (Sisu, 2023) is a recent one - John Wickesque action packed thriller with lots of explosions and badass scenes.

This post was edited by Malopox on May 26 2023 07:55am
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May 26 2023 07:29am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ May 26 2023 10:58am)
The same can be said about the Nato Apologist and vice versa. Ad no one is apologizing for the Russians maybe one or two in the thread.
We are discussing about realpolitik , geo politics and geo economics between great powers , why it happened and how it happened and how we see it in the future.


I really struggle with the feasibility of the ukrainian plan. they backed out of a deal last year because they were losing 2 slices of cake. this year 3 slices of cake are gone and next year there might be no cake left. If russia sees the war as an existential threat (regardless of whether it is an existential threat or not) then thats what it is. In such a scenario, regardless of capabilities, it is very difficult to see a ukrainian win where they somehow manage to get russia to regurgitate whats left of the cake. "here is your cake back, well, whats left of it, is very unlikely to happen".

And in this regard, I, and others, question why the west believes they will "win" and continue with this policy of enabling ukraine to fight to the last man.

meanwhile the de-globalization policies of america is catapulting china's own industries into orbit, hastening the international (if not US) dependence on china, as a viable alternative.

all very confusing what the US is doing right now.

Russia was irrelevant, China was the issue, I just dont see the rationale for pushing all of Russia over under China's umbrella. I am flabbergasted that there is no recognition of this.

This post was edited by ferdia on May 26 2023 07:33am
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May 26 2023 07:31am
Quote (Djunior @ 26 May 2023 15:16)
Would've been over in 3 months without massive Western support

Would've saved a couple trillion dollars too if you add everything up

Emotional trash

#D1shonesty


https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

Since the war began, the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support.
Lets say 1/3 of that was humanitarian help.
So that leaves us with 50billion USD.
Lets say EU gave as much. So we have 100billion total.
Where trillions you talking about?
Ukrainians are fighting vs 100mln Russian people.
So apparently US/EU spent only 1000usd to stop a single Russian during 15months. per month of war that was only like 60usd per head. And 60usd is about 3hours of work for an average person.
While the Russian spend like 30hours per month.
So US/EU spending is only like 10% of Russian spending.
Russian is depleting its resources.
West is doing a good deal on that.
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May 26 2023 07:34am
Quote (Djunior @ May 26 2023 02:16pm)
Would've been over in 3 months without massive Western support

Would've saved a couple trillion dollars too if you add everything up

Emotional trash

#D1shonesty


Sad junior :<
#3months

You do realise the aid sent is a fraction of any NATO countries overall military spend, especially the US. You realise that right?
No risk to NATO troops themselves and massive casualties and loss of hardware to Russia.

Its a win, win for NATO. I know thats hard to you to accept.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on May 26 2023 07:36am
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May 26 2023 07:42am
Quote (ferdia @ 26 May 2023 21:29)
I really struggle with the feasibility of the ukrainian plan. they backed out of a deal last year because they were losing 2 slices of cake. this year 3 slices of cake are gone and next year there might be no cake left. If russia sees the war as an existential threat (regardless of whether it is an existential threat or not) then thats what it is. In such a scenario, regardless of capabilities, it is very difficult to see a ukrainian win where they somehow manage to get russia to regurgitate whats left of the cake. "here is your cake back, well, whats left of it".

And in this regard, I, and others, question why the west believes they will "win" and continue with this policy of enabling ukraine to fight to the last man.

meanwhile the de-globalization policies of america is catapulting china's own industries into orbit, hastening the international (if not US) dependence on china, as a viable alternative.

all very confusing what the US is doing right now.

Russia was irrelevant, China was the issue, I just dont see the rationale for pushing all of Russia over under China's umbrella. I am flabbergasted that there is no recognition of this.



Ego , Theodore Roosevelt doctrine , up and coming elections to stay in power , existential threat of losing power for the democrats and the endless zeal and vigor for the Republican to dethrone and grab back the power to rule and control.

China is just the "fall guy" this time round.

And if recent history reminds you well.

USSR, Iran and communism was the enemy of the people back in the 50s all the way up to the late 80s

The Vietnamese in the 60s and 70s

The Japanese in the mid 70s up to the early 90s ( The United States handled them pretty well and beat them back into a puppet as they should be " plaza accords "

Iraq in the early 90s ( Justified )

Serbia in the mid 90s to late 90s

9/11 and terrorism for 20 years

Colour Revolution and Arab Spring.


Long story short every single time the American election starts and who ever who wins it , need a war to prove that they are Hero of the people and the free world in order to prove their worth.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on May 26 2023 07:43am
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May 26 2023 07:53am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ May 26 2023 03:12pm)
Have a schnitzel and relax hans.


Yes ill eat it fast before you polski steal it, kurwa :)
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May 26 2023 08:13am
All the appeasers in here hoping the western hegemony collapses.

Keep dreaming and get used to it.

Thr west is best.
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May 26 2023 08:21am
British Parliament has recognised the Holodomor as a genocide.
Btw Gareth Jones (d. 1935).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Jones_(journalist)
=> Soviets really tried to hide it, thus we can notice the big influence they had on EU at this time.
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May 26 2023 08:23am
Quote (ferdia @ 26 May 2023 15:29)
I really struggle with the feasibility of the ukrainian plan. they backed out of a deal last year because they were losing 2 slices of cake. this year 3 slices of cake are gone and next year there might be no cake left. If russia sees the war as an existential threat (regardless of whether it is an existential threat or not) then thats what it is. In such a scenario, regardless of capabilities, it is very difficult to see a ukrainian win where they somehow manage to get russia to regurgitate whats left of the cake. "here is your cake back, well, whats left of it, is very unlikely to happen".

And in this regard, I, and others, question why the west believes they will "win" and continue with this policy of enabling ukraine to fight to the last man.

meanwhile the de-globalization policies of america is catapulting china's own industries into orbit, hastening the international (if not US) dependence on china, as a viable alternative.

all very confusing what the US is doing right now.

Russia was irrelevant, China was the issue, I just dont see the rationale for pushing all of Russia over under China's umbrella. I am flabbergasted that there is no recognition of this.


I assume the plan is to either:

a) force Russians out of Donbass/Crimea through decisive military action using provided matériel. Russians will sue for peace as they will realize the case is lost and will turn over their foreign reserves to help Blackrock rebuild Ukraine.

b )drag the war or freeze the conflict long enough for Putin to either die of natural causes or to either orchestrate coup or wait for Putins inner circle to take him out and replace Russian top brass with pro-western leaders who will sign a ceasefire and will give Ukraine back their conquered lands.

I’m not sure any of those are realistic at this point in time. Plan A requires taking over Crimea and there is a very big chance Russians will announce full mobilization (bringing in 10-20 million soldiers) and will start nuking things in self-defence. This will cause catastrophic military and civilian casualties and will irradiate fertile Ukranian soil crippling food production for decades. This will be pretty dire situation as this will be condemned by most of the nations worldwide and Russia will probably lose support of China/India/and whoever was still there. Russia will become an outcast nation. An UN SC intervention will be proposed which will be vetoed by Russia which will cause UN SC crisis and possible dissolution of UN SC with Russia being kicked out. I doubt a full scale invasion of Russia will happen as people are still scared of getting nuked. The only way I see an invasion happen if Russia would shatter into states a-la Balkans and you would be able to pick them off one by one starting with those that will not inherit nuclear capabilities (similar fashion as Former Soviet Block was picked up apart by NATO, rinse and repeat).

Plan B assumes that whoever comes after Putin will change strategy - which in my personal view is not realistic as Russian national pride will be hurt and it will be difficult to find a willing negotiator as he will be immediately assasinated by nationalists as he or she will be viewed as a traitor of the whole Russian heritage.

Both plans will result in significant turmoil in Eurasia with several failed states being created and hundreds of millions in distress for decades. I’m not sure Europeans would enjoy this.

I’m hoping cool heads will prevail before we get to the nuking stage.

Any other ideas?

This post was edited by Malopox on May 26 2023 08:29am
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