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May 25 2023 11:52am
Quote (Malopox @ 25 May 2023 19:38)
You actually came up with a perfect metaphor.

We all know exactly what the farmer will do with the hen once it’s no longer needed (cannot lay eggs).

Farmer does not run an animal shelter. He has kids to feed and diesel to buy.

Sad.


yes. that's why all the other hens are dead now, doing so much worse than russia for example. it's not like they all became stronger, safer, more prosperous, and more independent after joining the farm, right? all dead and fed to the kids.... OH WAIT!

i love how kremlin bots have to completely ignore the history of recent decades in order to spin their propaganda about evil NATO and the terrible fate that awaits one if they ask to join, lol...
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May 25 2023 12:07pm
Quote (fender @ 25 May 2023 19:52)
yes. that's why all the other hens are dead now, doing so much worse than russia for example. it's not like they all became stronger, safer, more prosperous, and more independent after joining the farm, right? all dead and fed to the kids.... OH WAIT!

i love how kremlin bots have to completely ignore the history of recent decades in order to spin their propaganda about evil NATO and the terrible fate that awaits one if they ask to join, lol...


Hey, welcome back, it’s always a pleasure to have a debate with you.

Where shall we start?

I can give you an example of eg Kazakhstan or Finland. Both have peculiar and long history with Russia with their own individual ways. Although Finland did recently join NATO, they were a prime example of “toeing the line” and they did incredibly well since their independence from Sweden (although as a protectorate of the Russian Empire) and then as independent Finland once Lenin granted them independence in 1917. USSR did attack Finland in 1940 which to be honest based on available evidence and with the morals and standards of today that seems largely unprovoked. That did not stop great relations between Finland and USSR after World War 2 where both Finland and USSR (and then Russia) benefited greatly from mutual trade. Great deal of stuff Russians bought from the west was imported through Finnish ports of Kotka and Hamina.

I also believe Kazakhstan is a prime model of understanding the geopolitics of being locked up between China and Russia with US always interested in “influencing” their internal policy. Nevertheless Kazakhs are trying to lead their own way, with distinct culture, language and traditions and transitioning into a full democracy (eg by “retiring” Nazarbayev and his clan recently). I’ve spent a lot of time working with Kazakhs in the oil industry and I really have grown to respect what they have done to their country since the dissolution of the USSR. Kazakhs are incredibly proud and nationalistic (which was exploited by eg Borat) however the managed not to degrade into nazi style ethnic cleansings like Chechens or Ukrainians did.

Baltic states did well and arguable they would have done well without NATO, just with EU-integration alone, coupled with trade with Russia and Belarus as ports of Latvia and Estonia for exports of its commodities and products.

Turkmenistan was not so lucky as it got a hilariously comical dictator. He is not particularly friendly with Russia as they do not share a border. However human rights in Turkmenistan seem to concern people less than they did in eg Libya/Iraq/Syria or wherever.

Other -stans like Uzbekistan/Tajikistan were not so lucky, but that perhaps would be another story.

/edit

See below interesting graph how several countries did in GDP PPP per capita since the dissolution of USSR. The best improvement seems to be for Belarus which was arguably one of the poorest countries in the Union absolutely devastated in world war 2 in terms of population and not exactly blessed with resources so they historically relied on agri production (hence the joke about potatoes).

https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD&locations=RU-KZ-UA-LV-BY



This post was edited by Malopox on May 25 2023 12:36pm
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May 25 2023 12:29pm
news | May 25, 2023
2 SU-25 ATTACKS WERE
BROKEN DOWN BY THE NATIONAL
GUARD IN THE ZAPORIZK
DIRECTION
NATIONAL GUARD OF UKRAINE
SOUTHERN OPERATIONAL-TERRITORIAL ASSOCIATION




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May 25 2023 12:33pm
Quote (Goomshill @ May 25 2023 03:41pm)
An important point to bear in mind when we compare to the Cuban missile crisis and first strike jupiter missiles upsetting the balance- we were still held in check by the number of Russia's launch sites far exceeding jupiter capabilities to knock them out, and more importantly the untargetable submarine launched missiles. The soviets already had enough SSBNs at that point to a
serve as a deterrant and the US had just introduced a few a year earlier.

At no point in the Cuban missile crisis was either side really put in a position where MAD was jeopardized. So when we're looking at escalations and a hot war in Ukraine where Russia is committed to reciprocal escalation, backing out not being an option, we're quite possibly closer to a nuclear showdown now than then. Simply because Russia could nuke Ukraine without triggering MAD with NATO. And we're playing a game were either Russia wins a conventional war or flips the table.


There are a couple of books relating to the Cuban crisis where it is outlined that the US attacked a Russian sub, the captain was going to launch but he was countermanded by the military attache. So maybe not MAD, but Russia was moments from launching a nuclear missile at america, during that crisis, which is likely to have resulted in a nuclear response. There were several close calls down through the years, from several countries. The India Pakistan one being the most memorable of course. Thank god for America stopping that (and they did stop it). Pakistan is not looking too safe these days though.

This post was edited by ferdia on May 25 2023 12:34pm
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May 25 2023 12:56pm
Quote (Djunior @ May 25 2023 07:11pm)
You're responsible for gems like "the Ukrainians are going to grind the orcs out of Ukraine"

Well they just had an excellent opportunity to grind the orcs out of Soledar and Bakhmut.

Ukraine had received billions upon billions in aid from the West including a bunch of Western "game changers", were trained by the West and received Western intelligence (meaning NATO was basically running the show).

No lies, facts

Explain to us what happened and why the glorious Ukrainian heroes were ground to a pulp by a bunch of mercenaries from a gas station that ran out of ammo back in April last year


daaaaaamn ^_^



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May 25 2023 01:25pm
Quote (Djunior @ May 25 2023 12:11pm)
You're responsible for gems like "the Ukrainians are going to grind the orcs out of Ukraine"

Well they just had an excellent opportunity to grind the orcs out of Soledar and Bakhmut.

Ukraine had received billions upon billions in aid from the West including a bunch of Western "game changers", were trained by the West and received Western intelligence (meaning NATO was basically running the show).

No lies, facts

Explain to us what happened and why the glorious Ukrainian heroes were ground to a pulp by a bunch of mercenaries from a gas station that ran out of ammo back in April last year


The whole point of doggedly holding those towns was to inflict casualties while preparing their offensive (which appears to have been highly successful). Seeing as they haven't thrown their counterpunch yet, your assessment is ridiculously premature.
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May 25 2023 01:40pm
Quote (Santara @ 25 May 2023 19:25)
The whole point of doggedly holding those towns was to inflict casualties while preparing their offensive (which appears to have been highly successful). Seeing as they haven't thrown their counterpunch yet, your assessment is ridiculously premature.


Take care you a talking to the military expert who predicted that Ukraine would fall in 3 months.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut => NATO estimate: One-fifth of the number of Russian casualties
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May 25 2023 01:42pm
Quote (Malopox @ 25 May 2023 20:07)
Hey, welcome back, it’s always a pleasure to have a debate with you.

Where shall we start?

I can give you an example of eg Kazakhstan or Finland. Both have peculiar and long history with Russia with their own individual ways. Although Finland did recently join NATO, they were a prime example of “toeing the line” and they did incredibly well since their independence from Sweden (although as a protectorate of the Russian Empire) and then as independent Finland once Lenin granted them independence in 1917. USSR did attack Finland in 1940 which to be honest based on available evidence and with the morals and standards of today that seems largely unprovoked. That did not stop great relations between Finland and USSR after World War 2 where both Finland and USSR (and then Russia) benefited greatly from mutual trade. Great deal of stuff Russians bought from the west was imported through Finnish ports of Kotka and Hamina.

I also believe Kazakhstan is a prime model of understanding the geopolitics of being locked up between China and Russia with US always interested in “influencing” their internal policy. Nevertheless Kazakhs are trying to lead their own way, with distinct culture, language and traditions and transitioning into a full democracy (eg by “retiring” Nazarbayev and his clan recently). I’ve spent a lot of time working with Kazakhs in the oil industry and I really have grown to respect what they have done to their country since the dissolution of the USSR. Kazakhs are incredibly proud and nationalistic (which was exploited by eg Borat) however the managed not to degrade into nazi style ethnic cleansings like Chechens or Ukrainians did.

Baltic states did well and arguable they would have done well without NATO, just with EU-integration alone, coupled with trade with Russia and Belarus as ports of Latvia and Estonia for exports of its commodities and products.

Turkmenistan was not so lucky as it got a hilariously comical dictator. He is not particularly friendly with Russia as they do not share a border. However human rights in Turkmenistan seem to concern people less than they did in eg Libya/Iraq/Syria or wherever.

Other -stans like Uzbekistan/Tajikistan were not so lucky, but that perhaps would be another story.

/edit

See below interesting graph how several countries did in GDP PPP per capita since the dissolution of USSR. The best improvement seems to be for Belarus which was arguably one of the poorest countries in the Union absolutely devastated in world war 2 in terms of population and not exactly blessed with resources so they historically relied on agri production (hence the joke about potatoes).

https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD&locations=RU-KZ-UA-LV-BY

https://i.imgur.com/COHYrpi.jpg


so your "argument" shifted from 'NATO membership means certain death' (chicken is killed after it can't lay eggs any longer) to 'economically, countries can develop without NATO' (no shit, as it isn't an ECONOMIC alliance, but a military one), lol?

guess that's what happens when your analogy gets completely rekt by history. also, you might want to compare standards of living in former warsaw pact NATO members (like poland and czechia for example) with those of belarus and russia for example, if you want to have an actually meaningful indicator of what it means to ally with the west vs. what it means to be in the russian sphere of influence.
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May 25 2023 01:45pm
Quote (Santara @ May 25 2023 09:25pm)
The whole point of doggedly holding those towns was to inflict casualties while preparing their offensive (which appears to have been highly successful). Seeing as they haven't thrown their counterpunch yet, your assessment is ridiculously premature.


Nope, the orcs won the battle of Soledar and Bakhmut while Ukraine is saying they still hold Bakhmut and Western MSM are all spreading that propaganda. *Guffaw*

BTW

Their counteroffensive will need to break through well prepared defenses while a whole lot of artillery / missile systems are waiting and drones are constantly monitoring the situation.

Looks like there are a couple hundred thousand Russian forces that were mobilized and haven't been committed yet meaning they're by now fully trained reserves and no doubt will be rushed in when needed.


Quote (Meanwhile @ May 25 2023 09:40pm)
Take care you a talking to the military expert who predicted that Ukraine would fall in 3 months.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut => NATO estimate: One-fifth of the number of Russian casualties


And that's 100% correct, Ukraine is beaten and only kept in the fight because of massive Western support. And still Ukraine can't win...
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May 25 2023 01:50pm
Quote (Djunior @ May 25 2023 12:45pm)
Nope, the orcs won the battle of Soledar and Bakhmut while Ukraine is saying they still hold Bakhmut and Western MSM are all spreading that propaganda. *Guffaw*

BTW

Their counteroffensive will need to break through well prepared defenses while a whole lot of artillery / missile systems are waiting and drones are constantly monitoring the situation.

Looks like there are a couple hundred thousand Russian forces that were mobilized and haven't been committed yet meaning they're by now fully trained reserves and no doubt will be rushed in when needed.




And that's 100% correct, Ukraine is beaten and only kept in the fight because of massive Western support. And still Ukraine can't win...


your cheerleading is pretty pathetic.
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