Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 25 2022 01:31pm)

Agreed.

It seems that Russia scaled back its goals throughout this conflict.

"Take all of Ukraine in a blitzkrieg."
"Take all of Ukraine, even if it requires more time than anticipated."
"Take Kyiv and everything to the east of the Dnieper River."
"Take the entire Ukrainian Black Sea Coast plus the entire Donbass."
"Secure Donbass and a land connection to Crimea." <- we are here

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After the Russian annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian authorities greatly cut the volume of water flowing into Crimea via the canal, citing a huge outstanding debt on water supplies owed by the peninsula. This caused the peninsula's agricultural harvest which is heavily dependent on irrigation to fail in 2014.[2][3]

Crimean water sources are being connected to the North Crimean Canal to replace the former Ukrainian sources. The objective is to restore irrigation and urban supplies to the Kerch Peninsula and to smaller communities on the east coast of Crimea.[4] In 2014, a reservoir was built to store water of the rivers of the Eastern Crimea near the village of Novoivanovka, Nyzhnohirskyi Raion. The North Crimean Canal is connected with the Novoivanovka reservoir

On 24 February 2022, the first day of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops advancing from Crimea established control over the North Crimean Canal.[16] The Head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, told local authorities to prepare the canal to receive water from the Dnieper river and resume the supply of water, which was planned for the following day.[17][18]

On 26 February 2022, Russian forces destroyed the concrete dam by an explosion and the water supply was resumed.

Quote (ferdia @ Mar 25 2022 01:42pm)

The critical question re: Nato, remains.

Quote (ofthevoid @ 25 Mar 2022 19:02)

I think the we are here point is where they will make a stance. After 2014 when Russia took Crimea, Ukraine severely limited water flow to Crimea from the Dnieper. From my understanding this caused a lot of crop failures in Crimea. Not sure which city the water flow was controlled from, idk maybe Kherson? But imo, i think Russia will look to maintain that city and some stretch to the east towards Donetsk.

Interesting read on this subject
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal#:~:text=In%20Crimea%2C%20numerous%20smaller%20canals,to%20the%20city%20of%20Simferopol.



NATO membership being off the table is a given at this point, it was a given like a day or two into the war.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 25 2022 11:33am)

Yep, I agree with all of this. Russia will insist on formal approval of Crimea, a land border between Donbass and Crimea as well as Ukraine officially renouncing a NATO membership.

Like you said, Russia cannot accept any agreement in which Ukraine would retain its ability to cut off the water supply to Crimea. On the flip side, Ukraine cannot accept Russian control over the mouth of the Dnieper River around Kherson - the Russians cutting them off from sea access via this route would cripple Ukraine's economy. The heavy industry located around Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv as well as large parts of the country's agricultural exports use this waterway to reach international waters, a land-based transport to e.g. Odessa would not be feasible at the required scale.

Another open question regarding the post-war order is EU membership.

Quote (thundercock @ Mar 25 2022 03:13pm)

The war is still ongoing and the Ukrainians seem to be somewhat successful in their counterattacks. I think the question is: Can Ukraine get reinforcements into the East before the Russians really dig in? A lot of that hinges on Kyiv and Kherson counterattacks. Realistically speaking, I don't think Ukraine can capture Crimea since it has quite a few chokepoints. A diplomatic solution would be for Ukraine to cede Crimea to Russia under the condition that all coastal resources a split between Russia and Ukraine. Fat chance of that happening though.

Quote (thundercock @ 25 Mar 2022 20:13)

The war is still ongoing and the Ukrainians seem to be somewhat successful in their counterattacks. I think the question is: Can Ukraine get reinforcements into the East before the Russians really dig in? A lot of that hinges on Kyiv and Kherson counterattacks. Realistically speaking, I don't think Ukraine can capture Crimea since it has quite a few chokepoints. A diplomatic solution would be for Ukraine to cede Crimea to Russia under the condition that all coastal resources a split between Russia and Ukraine. Fat chance of that happening though.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 25 2022 04:01pm)

Of course! A lack of motivated troops and logistical issues are Russia's main problems right now. But Russia's demography is not affected by Western sanctions either way. This is not a point against my argument that an oil and gas embargo against Russia will not - at least in the forseeable future - affect or even stop Russia's ability to continue this war.

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According to Pentagon officials to NYT, Russian forces no longer have full control of Kherson. Russian forces have started to prioritize eastern Ukraine.

Quote (dro94 @ Mar 25 2022 02:38pm)

I just don't agree. 200,000+ young Russians have fled the country because of sanctions and the growing totalitarianism brought by the war, many parts for weapons and vehicles will be imported and subject to sanctions, lead times are very long regardless

Quote (thesnipa @ Mar 25 2022 07:42pm)

I dont get how people can see protests where a hundred people or so go in knowing they'll be jailed all over Russia every single day and think this is sustainable, we're still at the start of the conflict. its clearly taking a toll as are the economic sanctions. drawing conclusions a month into hyperinflation and lack of products available is too hasty.