Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 25 2022 11:58am)

The underlying reason for the surging prices on the housing market, which go back over 10 years, is the money printing by the central banks. All the central bank money has fueled asset price inflation, exacerbated by some socio-economic macro trends (rural flight, a shift from an industrial to a knowledge-based society, high levels of immigration which also tends to focus on cities).

Of course the "money printer go brrrr"-response to the pandemic has only made this problem worse. No idea by how much though.





I would be very cautious when it comes to polls like these. People tend to underestimate the sting of personal sacrifice while they aren't suffering from it yet.
Moreover, poll questions like this one, which put a moral cause against personal self-interest, are particularly prone to social desirability bias.

This poll reminds me of these polls about masks where some 60-80% of respondents said they'd continue wearing masks once mandates are lifted. We all know how that turned out...

----------------

Regarding your last sentence: the Russian arms industry is largely autarkic. They have the factories and the natural resources to keep going. Likewise, the big military investments, namely buying tanks and jets, already lie in the past. On the economic side of things, Putin needs just two things to keep up the ongoing war: oil for his tanks (which they have in spades) and roubles to pay his soldiers (the central bank can just print them if necessary). Simply put, it would be foolish to expect an embargo on Russian oil and natural gas to hamper the Russian ability to continue this war in the short-term. It would take many months, if not years, until the loss of heavy material which cannot be replaced by Russia's arms industry or surging inflation due to too much money printing put an economic end to this war.

Quote (Surfpunk @ Mar 25 2022 10:00am)

Where in anything I posted regarding this do I indicate that it was inevitable that the rate of home prices would double?

Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 25 2022 09:09am)

When you make the point that the housing market has been on fire for years so it's not due to Covid, that's not accurate.

Baseline growth pre-covid per annum has settled in around 5-6%.

HPI growth in 2020 is double the baseline, in 2021 it's triple the baseline, in 2022 it's projected to once again be double the pre-covid baseline.

So, with that in mind, you then have to try to explain what happened in 2020 onwards for the dramatic deviation from the baseline. You can't just say well home prices were going up pre-covid so it has nothing to do with Covid response.

Here's a doc, go to page 4 for a user friendly visual of what im talking about. Or even better next page, where it shows a longer time series.

https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/HPI_2021Q4.pdf

Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 24 2022 09:33pm)

No, actually. The sharp increase in prices, not only in homes but honestly all across the board has to do with the COVID response. Some of us warned that shutting down the economy could lead to some very bad economic effects. You can't simply create value out of thin air by printing and the government giving out free checks. Then you combine that with the supply chain issues also caused by shutdowns and this is what you get. Wages are rising but wages have a huge impact on costs so those are rising by just as much, if not more.

It's like, here's 2k in stimulus... then a year later you see home prices up by 25%, food prices up by 25%, gasoline prices up by like 30%... Fuck your 2k, your shit actions are costing me tens of thousands...

Quote (Surfpunk @ Mar 25 2022 08:25am)

It absolutely did.

Quote (WiziLiCe @ Mar 25 2022 09:40am)

There you go

Quote (Surfpunk @ Mar 25 2022 02:41pm)

Way to ignore the rest of my post.

Quote (Surfpunk @ Mar 25 2022 09:25am)

Again, you're arguing a point I'm not making. Nowhere in this thread have I said that COVID didn't have an impact on the housing market. It absolutely did. Just that it didn't start the trend of housing price increases outpacing the rate of inflation.

Quote (Lebanon961 @ Mar 25 2022 08:35am)

So the USA is doing charity work against their own interest... sure is some serious stuff you are paddling :)
Arming Ukraine further = prolonging the war... that is a serious and actually not clown fact you should wrap your head around before you state that 'there is no other way to take being pro Russia than being pro war'.

Quote (Djunior @ Mar 25 2022 08:57am)

Except there is. Ukraine should defend itself, the West should stay out of it instead of pumping all kinds of weapons into the country and 1) cause Ukraine to be levelled and 2) risk all out (nuclear) war.

Ezd

Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 25 2022 06:43am)

In 2017, 2018, 2019, average annual home price appreciation was between 5-6% annually. In 2020 HPA was 11% and in 2021 it was 17%, in 2022 it's projected to be up another 10%. Covid actions absolutely exasperated the issue by significantly expanding the money supply and damaging supply lines.

Quote (Surfpunk @ Mar 25 2022 09:25am)

Again, you're arguing a point I'm not making. Nowhere in this thread have I said that COVID didn't have an impact on the housing market. It absolutely did. Just that it didn't start the trend of housing price increases outpacing the rate of inflation.