Real threat is hybride warfare cancer, along with China: they are trying to push our population on the streets plain and simple, and not for the sake of demcoracy. I'm affraid that we could take counter measures but too late.



Everytime there's "human rights" they vote "in favour" ...

There's no evidence that they would want to go anywhere beyond their eastern European sphere of influence. Pro-war Neocons continuously repeating this in their echo chambers to amplify support for the war doesn't make it so.

Also you're seriously over-estimating European military capabilities on a stand-alone basis. Please look around and tell me how eager the average 20 year old is to join the military in Germany, or other Euro country? There's a reason why there's this attitude of 'we have to make a stand in Ukraine'.

For example:



https://www.dw.com/en/german-military-facing-recruitment-gap-says-commissioner/a-65206735

This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 1 2023 02:33pm

Russia is struggling to maintain momentum against a country with one fourth the population, in a theater of war which is located just some 100-200km from Russia's border. After everything we've witnessed over the past 14 months, does anyone think that the Russian military would be able to cope with the logistics if they had to fight 1000-1500km away from home, in Poland or Romania?

And yes, as run-down and pathetic as they are, the combined military might of the current, standing armies of the UK, France, Poland, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Romania and Czechia still easily exceeds whatever Russia can muster. Particularly now that they've exhausted their reserves of men and ammunition in Ukraine.

This is a point of emphasis that's highlighted very often. Why is it not paired with the honest analysis that it's not just Russia vs Ukraine? We literally are emptying Europe of armaments and sending hundreds of billions to fight this war. US alone sent more in 2022 than the whole of Russia's annual military expenditure. So no its not just Ukraine vs Russia.

2nd bold: If you think the average German, Dutch, Belgian, Spanish, Italian soldier is eager to go fight Russians in Ukraine I have a bridge to sell you. Maybe Poles, to a certain extent being the exception. Literally any person that wants to fight can go join unofficially, some do but 99.98% want no part of it.

Do you seriously think that the average Ukrainian was eager to fight the Russians before Feb22 ? Sure, some Azov types were, but the average Ukrainian?
And note that most European armies are staffed with professional soldiers, rather than recruits. Second, if the Russian tanks were standing on their border and artillery started shelling Polish/German/Romanian towns, the motivation to fight back would surely surge.



Your first point is more salient. Yes, Europe is emptying its depots and ammo reserves, but we're still not nearly fighting with everything we got. Our air force is largely unused, and technologically far superior to Russia's. If they had to fight the Europeans far away from mother Russia, how would they prevent our jets and bombers from obliterating their ground forces? How would they prevent our far superior navies from flattening Saint Petersburg? And the truth also is that we haven't nearly sent all the modern battle tanks and howitzers to Ukraine yet. Aside from ammunition and perhaps portable air defense, we have still kept most of the good stuff to ourselves.

And last but not least, keep in mind that Europe has a tremendous industrial base. If we really had to, we could set up a very potent wartime economy. For example, do you really think that the thousands of tons of steel that the German car manufacturers are processing every day couldn't be used to produce bullets and helmets if it was really necessary?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 1 2023 02:59pm

Sorry but i have to correct you: we don't really have "neo-con" here... We aren't in U.S.
In Europe Putin's regime is very popular for the anti-all uniformed population & related populists. Left and Right side.
Multipartism history...

This is a serious problem, easily 1/3 of the population. This cancer is growing faster with social medias, and so on: it has to stop.

Your whole point is predicated on the assumption that Russia is and will be looking to push through Europe when it's done with Ukraine. Do I see Germans or Spaniards picking up arms if Russia is bombing German or Spanish cities? Yes, but that's not a realistic scenario. A realistic scenario is these soldiers are asked to go fight in Ukraine, that's why Euro armies are having trouble recruiting adequate numbers of soldiers.

Of course combined Europe has number, wealth and tech superiority, what they don't have is the willingness and existential drive that Ukrainians and Russians have in this war. You and I are happy to live our lives getting old and fat, sipping our favorite craft beers and enjoying the average western comforts. You live in an alternate reality if you think zoomers and millennials in the west are eager to go fight for a country and a people that are not their own, and largely don't give two shits about.

You're shifting the goal posts. The debate was originally over the question if Russia would pose a threat of conquering further European countries if it was hypothetically done with Ukraine. So we were debating a scenario in which Russian tanks are crossing the Polish, or even German, border. And in this scenario, we would of course get our butts out of our seats.

NATO is expanding when countries decide they need protection from Russia and apply to join NATO.
Russia/USSR is expanding when it conquests either by force (Chechnya, Ukraine etc) or by corruption (Belarus).

Baltics are small countries, dont compare them to Ukraine.
Its like 5:1 I think.
Baltics invasion can be done quickly, before the NATO manages to move their troops.
Plus as I said, after Russia conquer Ukraine their potential increases, by like 40% I would say.

NATO isn't monolith, we see it clearly.
The more far away from Russia, the less motivated country is.
There is a feeling among some western countries (and Hungary) that Russia ain't really bad, and that stops them from taking necessary actions.
They think just because USSR didnt attack them during Cold war, they won't attack. But its wrong way of thinking, because for example Russia didnt attack Ukraine for 25years, so a time proof doesnt really prove anything.

That's why its important to have a strong Eastern Europe NATO section, because we know how to deal with Russians.
But we need Ukraine on our side, because Russia is 120mln country and Eastern NATO is currently only like 80mln.

Why were you surprised ?