Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Apr 11 2023 08:41am)
I will say at least 40 to 50 years. Even then it is almost impossible to take away the dollar unless the United States collapse completely .
The scary part is , because of the fear of de dollarization. The United States government might do something drastic and trigger a larger conflict that might inevitably end up in a major war.
Another thing that is rather uncomfortable is Lee Kuan Yew's prediction. He already said this 15 to 20 years back, it will take the Chinese about 2 to 3 generation to make their own passenger aircraft.
And here we are....
I think a lot of people in the world did not expect United States decline to be that quick and did not expect the Chinese to rise in such an unprecedented manner.
The idea of America declining is creating a knee jerk reaction which culminated to what we are experiencing right now in regards to the " East " and " West" conflict.
Instead of putting up a dangerous narrative of America " decline " . United States should promote and take a " Reclining " position instead. And when they are doing a reclining position, they should do house keeping and fix serious existing problems they are facing domestically.
And if they do that, within half or one generation, they will be back in business.
But of course, when it comes to pride and dignity and her war like , and control problem. It is less likely they will take that step.
I think dollar getting replaced by CBDC will probably happen faster than 40-50. It's going to coincide with our debt crises with interest on debt that will eat away the annual budget. So what they'll do is monetize that debt and have some new central bank currency take over. I think something like this happens in the next 20 years.
The subsequent question though is how readily will the rest of the world accept this new US cbdc, or maybe it will be US/Europe/Japan backed, idk. If it's backed by a basket of strong economies, the US may retain its hegemony for subsequent decades. I think how wide this adoption is going to show us what happens to US hegemony thereafter, who knows though, none of us have a crystal ball.