Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Apr 11 2023 10:37am)
^ferdia ^ofthevoid ^malopox
What are your views on the gradual dedollarlization ?
I dont have any concrete view at the moment. I am still thinking about it. Here is a draft attempt of my preliminary views but understand I need to read more and its all interlinked. If what follows repeats alot of stuff that I already said - im taking a page out of the book of people more intelligent then me: you have to repeat your position because not everyone will have read your past musings to understand how you got to your position, and sometimes rewording of a position will make people view events/position differently. so without further ado:
The US sees "democracy" as the only form of government and sees all other forms of government as a threat/wrong. The US had hoped that China would become democratic but realized some time ago that this was not going to happen. The US acknowledges that China wants to be a regional superpower, and the US views this as a situation not in their interests. In response, the US, in my opinion, is preparing to go to war with China. In order to be successful, they first need to "de-couple" from China. This means, to drastically reduce their dependence (trade) with China, in order to attempt to do to China what they did to Russia. This takes years to do because they trade so much with China currently and they need to figure out how not to be reliant on China going forward. It does not help that the blueprint for this war on Russia | war on China is so vastly different. Russia had few allies, China has alot of allies. Russia was isolationist, China is not. Russia did little trade with everyone, China just has alot of stuff and trades with everyone.
In its simplistic form:
Globalization = Trading with China
De-Globalization = No longer trading with China
A comment on Globalization : This has led to all of the benefits that we see day-to-day in western society, where there has been more money to go around and stuff is cheaper then ever before. Most countries on the planet have greatly benefited from Globalization for decades and this equated to a reduced cost of living. While China is only 1 country, it is a massive trade entity.
A comment on De-Globalization : As the US decouples from China (a move I find counter productive) the natural consequence (in my opinion) will be an accelerated growth of China with those countries that WILL trade with China. In this regard a lot of countries will hoover up the trade that the US (or other countries, such as those in the EU) no longer wants. That basically means an increased cost of living for those countries that dont trade with everyone.
War in Ukraine & De-Globalization = increased cost of living = more unrest everywhere = emergence of more nationalistic leaders opposed to declining economies = gravitate naturally to those countries that are championing Globalization = Less dependence on US dollar and Rise of an alternate currency.
Goomshill, as usual, gave a much briefer (and better) concise summary to support the position of cause and effect.
The US to my mind would have been far better off if had acted in good faith with Russia and China. There is no evidence whatsoever that they will ever change their mind, therefore some things at this point are inevitable.
This post was edited by ferdia on Apr 11 2023 04:48am