what is your definition of the term "working" in this context ? i.e. what is the point of the sanctions on the part of the west.

1. if the purpose of the sanctions is to make life difficult - yes the sanctions will have that effect.
2. if the purpose of the sanctions is to punish the current invasion - yes this will have that effect.
3. if the purpose of the sanctions to to change Putin's mind - i do not believe that sanctions will have this effect.

/e ofthevoid is here, ill afk for a day or so

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 23 2022 06:19am

Sanctions do very little to actually displace the decision makers in power. Look at Iran, NK, Cuba, Venezuela and pretty much every other country that has been sanctioned. Like I understand the logic, and in theory it makes sense. If you put pressure on the people economically, the people start suffering and eventually the suffering people will put pressure on those decision makers to change course, in reality that's not how it works though.

In the long term economic forces ultimately prevail. Europe needs Russian gas and there is no way around that. Renewables are not there yet and natural gas is the transition energy source. Other sources of gas are more expensive and require extensive infrastructure. Sure over years, this infrastructure can be built and reliance on Russian gas reduced by 5% or whatever before it becomes too expensive, but that is far from game-changing. In the big picture, Russia will be a partner of Europe, and they have shown they will not be some junior partner subservient to USA like many Europe countries are. They want to sit as a major player and partner... and the economic interests dictate that they sit at the table. I could speculate it is just as likely, in the long term, European countries see NATO in its current form as more detrimental than beneficial to their interests.

Of course, USA will try its hardest to plant a wedge between Russia and EU, but that is an uphill battle in the long term

Putin's system is built on a class of elites/oligarchs/opinion leaders who are generously funded by the Russian state and its vast natural resources. If there is less money to go around, then these people will lose a ton. The idea is less that misery will drive ordinary Russians into hunger revolts or anything like that - no, the idea is that people from Putin's inner circle of power will start wondering whether they want continue making personal sacrifices for Putin's dreams of restoring former Soviet glory.

Do you have any idea how uncomfortable things will get at home for the Russian oligarchs when their trophy wife can no longer go on shopping trips to Paris or Milan and is asked to use Russian cosmetics and "luxury" goods instead of Gucci and Prada?




The sanctions will of course not change Putin's mind - but they can undermine his power by making it harder for him to fund his war and to keep his cronies happy.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 23 2022 06:37am

So now the banking is on the wife of the oligarch
This is funny.

I think you underestimate just HOW bitchy their wives will get if they're asked to compromise on their luxurious lifestyle.
(I'm of course just joking, in case anyone didn't realize...)

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 23 2022 06:45am

People in power always find a way. These oligarchs have tens if not hundreds of millions they are playing with. A few yachts or a few western mansions isn't going to change much lol. Even if you reduce their cash flows in the grand of scheme it doesn't really impact their quality of living as many of them already have so much money stacked. They'll still get their Gucci bags and luxury products it'll just be a little harder and more expensive. This does however impact the average Russian who will have his work hours cut or he will be laid off as exports have dried up, or all those western corporations who provided jobs in Russia now don't.

Yes yes. But the theory about oligarchs pressuring Putin won't work. As I said before this carrot and stick mentality assumes your adversary is a donkey.
Russian decision-makers see Ukraine as part of an almost existential battle for the future of Russia's place in Europe for decades to come.
Do not underestimate their resolve. Ain't no oligarch's yacht or wife gonna put a stop to that.

The pro-russian party was the plurality Party of Regions, which won the last democratic election in 2014 with Yanukovych as the head, and was overthrown in a coup. That party ceased to exist when its base of support seceded. What Zelensky just banned was not the pro-russian opposition party, but rather the 'moderate' opposition party, who officially denounced the Russian invasion. If they were pro-russian, they'd support the russian invasion. Rather, they opposed both Russian aggression and NATO expansion, and sought to renegotiate the EU agreement and strike a neutral path between the EU and Russia. Zelensky turned the country into a one-party state and also seized control of all media and folded them under that one party state apparatus.

I've already said numerous times how there isn't any credible democracy in Ukraine when the lawfully elected government was overthrown in a coup and the new government was "elected" with half the country not participating. But with this weeks developments, any pretense or superficial trappings of democracy were cast aside and now Zelenksy has simply instituted a one party ruled dictatorship. No opposition parties allowed, no opposition media allowed. I think he deserves another standing ovation in US congress.

Of all the shit fucking foreign policy America has engaged in over the past few decades, this is by far the most obviously misguided engagement. We are prodding on a war without being willing to intervene to win it, making the loss inevitable. Our only contribution is to make it far more bloody and catastrophic than it needs to be. We're siding with literal Nazi war criminals, openly reveling in their violations of the Geneva Conventions. We've driven a wedge into international relations and put the entirety of the rest of the world against our alliance, even countries that had close ties to us. We're driving right up to the bring of nuclear annihilation without actually challenging the rival that truly threatens us- instead we're ceding the Chinese a geopolitical boon as Russia is driven into their open arms. And all this in the supposed name of 'democracy' in a country that overthrew its elected government and now rules as a repressive dictatorship. We have absolutely nothing to gain, no national security at stake, no proliferation of weapons, no terrorists to stomp on. And unlike killing Gaddafi to protect the petrodollar, we're jeopardizing it.

- The democratically elected parliament of Ukraine had ratified the association agreement with the EU, which was veto'd by Yanukovych. This was the spark that ignited the shitshow in 2014 in which both Western and Russian intelligence messed with the protests and wrestled for control.
- Yanukovych's election was mired in allegations of voter fraud and manipulation. He was not a leader elected in a squeaky-clean election.
- Zelensky banned the moderate pro-Russian party after Russia invaded his country. Authoritarian, anti-democratic measures are par for the course during wartime.
- There is no wedge between "the rest of the world and the Western alliance". Here's a map of the UN resolution to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine:


Almost all of Latin America sided with the West, as did half of Africa, most of the Middle East and all of South East Asia with the exception of Vietnam. The only countries explicitly siding with Russia were Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. Even Kazakhstan, an explicit ally of Russia whose president was saved from a coup d'etat by Russian paramilitary forces mere weeks before this vote, decided to abstain. Hell, even the Taliban in Afghanistan and the genocidal military dictatorship in Myanmar sided with the West.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 23 2022 07:31am