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Mar 24 2023 10:25am

,
thanks for the reply on the solution part. I am trying to think of something similar to Ferdia.
And see how I can reply .
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Mar 24 2023 10:26am
Quote (Neptunus @ 24 Mar 2023 17:25)
Thanks, thats why we need a military alliance. Ukraine is alone and its not very nice.


You are not member of NATO ?
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Mar 24 2023 10:26am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 24 Mar 2023 17:20)
Key question, do you think more banks will follow suit? Will there be a domino effect?
And if does will it affect the US support in Ukraine especially when it comes to providing the money needed to fund the war?
I think I ask something similar a few days back , haven't got a reply yet . :hail:

^malopox


Nobody has the crystal ball really on what's going to happen next. As things are right now - its not a systemic issue as we have seen in 2008. Credit Suisse was rather unique and the reasons it failed weren't the same as in case of SVB. In my opinion current situation in Europe is pretty robust and I don't expect any dramatic failures (haha, famous last words). If shit really starts going down the drain - i would expect ECB / FED to restart QE/TARPs to take off some deeply discounted assets and free up liquidity at the expense of prolonged inflation. As things are right now - banks don't have issues with deliquencies/credit risk as fiscal policies are very loose and people are supported left and right against this unfolding crisis(depositors bailed out, stimulus checks, unemployment benefits, etc). This can change in the future if central banks continue to increase rates as people need to refinance adjustable mortgages/corporate facilities/margin calls now cost 5%.

I'm personally not a big fan of eg Lagarde (ECB chief) as she seems to be "surprised" constantly which is a bad sign in banking business. Banks (and Central Banks) are all about trust and confidence. It's extremely hard to build up - it takes years literally - and then you can lose it overnight with a few unfortunate remarks. That's why bankers are usually risk averse and try to keep their cool / public image managed.

This post was edited by Malopox on Mar 24 2023 10:32am
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Mar 24 2023 10:29am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Mar 24 2023 12:20pm)
Key question, do you think more banks will follow suit? Will there be a domino effect?
And if it does will it affect the US support in Ukraine especially when it comes to providing the money needed to fund the war?
I think I ask something similar a few days back , haven't got a reply yet . :hail:

^malopox


Probably not, governments are doing a lot to shore up liquidity in the background. Banks desperately need governments to stop hiking though.

I talked about this awhile back, I think sending hundreds of billions to Ukraine will be a really hot topic issue during the election. If normal people have experienced years of inflation, various types of problems (like this banking crises) etc, the appetite to spend hundreds of billions on wars will be dampened. Questions will be without a doubt why are we spending there when we’re hurting here.
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Mar 24 2023 10:33am
Quote (Malopox @ 25 Mar 2023 00:26)
Nobody has the crystal ball really on what's going to happen next. As things are right now - its not a systemic issue as we have seen in 2008. Credit Suisse was rather unique and the reasons it failed weren't the same as in case of SVB. In my opinion current situation in Europe is pretty robust and I don't expect any dramatic failures (haha, famous last words). If shit really starts going down the drain - i would expect ECB / FED to restart QE/TARPs to take off some deeply discounted assets and free up liquidity at the expense of prolonged inflation.

I'm personally not a big fan of eg Lagarde (ECB chief) as she seems to be "surprised" constantly which is a bad sign in banking business. Banks (and Central Banks) are all about trust and confidence. It's extremely hard to build up - it takes years literally - and then you can lose it overnight with a few unfortunate remarks. That's why bankers are usually risk averse and try to keep their cool / public image managed.


Quote (ofthevoid @ 25 Mar 2023 00:29)
Probably not, governments are doing a lot to shore up liquidity in the background. Banks desperately need governments to stop hiking though.

I talked about this awhile back, I think sending hundreds of billions to Ukraine will be a really hot topic issue during the election. If normal people have experienced years of inflation, various types of problems (like this banking crises) etc, the appetite to spend hundreds of billions on wars will be dampened. Questions will be without a doubt why are we spending there when we’re hurting here.


Not my field , thanks for explaining. I am using a very 5 year old naive way when it comes to the economy side of things.
The only thing I am seeing at the moment through my job is through money movements around the globe.

I will read up and educate myself more.


Recently there are alot of funds moving back to Hong Kong , Singapore from EU ( Switzerland especially ) and quite a number of funds are coming from the US as well.

I know why the funds are moving back in from Switzerland via some of my clients. But I am curious why some clients are moving their funds from the US.


This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Mar 24 2023 10:37am
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Mar 24 2023 10:47am
1/ Diminish Russia & its mercenaries to the point it is no longer a threat.
2/ Next one.

----------------

Goodbye Wagner !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-23/putin-s-mercenary-prigozhin-shifts-focus-after-ukraine-setbacks?leadSource=reddit_wall

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Mar 24 2023 11:07am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 24 2023 09:11am)
The two aren’t connected but it doesn’t change the irony of trying destroy a countries financial infrastructure only for your own house of cards to be crumbling 12 months later


You think sanctions are ridiculous, and you think RU did this due to unfair practices by NATO.
I suppose we should just let RU attack whoever without consequence? or what is your solution to this?
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Mar 24 2023 11:12am
Quote (Meanwhile @ 24 Mar 2023 17:47)
1/ Diminish Russia & its mercenaries to the point it is no longer a threat.
2/ Next one.

----------------

Goodbye Wagner !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-23/putin-s-mercenary-prigozhin-shifts-focus-after-ukraine-setbacks?leadSource=reddit_wall

I'll believe it when I see it. Imho, this is another chapter in the ongoing feud between Prigoshin/Wagner and the generals/ministry of defense. If you ask me, he just wants to put further pressure on the official military to equip and acknowledge his mercenaries.
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Mar 24 2023 11:14am
Quote (Malopox @ Mar 24 2023 04:20pm)
I think recent bank failures in the US don't have a direct connection with Russian invasion. You can argue inflation was supported by the energy market distortion, but it started rising way before the invasion and FED had to hike anyway to contain it and bring back to target.

These banks would have failed regardless whether Russia invaded Ukraine or not. Their balance sheets were managed in such a way as to be extremely exposed to rate hikes. Since "transitory" didnt happen - FED would have hiked anyway - and e.g. SVB would have failed regardless. IMO.


logical.
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Mar 24 2023 11:16am
Quote (Malopox @ Mar 24 2023 04:26pm)
Nobody has the crystal ball really on what's going to happen next. As things are right now - its not a systemic issue as we have seen in 2008. Credit Suisse was rather unique and the reasons it failed weren't the same as in case of SVB. In my opinion current situation in Europe is pretty robust and I don't expect any dramatic failures (haha, famous last words). If shit really starts going down the drain - i would expect ECB / FED to restart QE/TARPs to take off some deeply discounted assets and free up liquidity at the expense of prolonged inflation. As things are right now - banks don't have issues with deliquencies/credit risk as fiscal policies are very loose and people are supported left and right against this unfolding crisis(depositors bailed out, stimulus checks, unemployment benefits, etc). This can change in the future if central banks continue to increase rates as people need to refinance adjustable mortgages/corporate facilities/margin calls now cost 5%.

I'm personally not a big fan of eg Lagarde (ECB chief) as she seems to be "surprised" constantly which is a bad sign in banking business. Banks (and Central Banks) are all about trust and confidence. It's extremely hard to build up - it takes years literally - and then you can lose it overnight with a few unfortunate remarks. That's why bankers are usually risk averse and try to keep their cool / public image managed.


another great post.
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