Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Mar 24 2023 02:01pm)
^ferdia, ^ownyaah, ^bananii, ^djunior
Off your head , what are the plausible solutions you think this will gradually stop.
1. Ukraine's counter offensive reclaims all of eastern Ukraine, this year, but not Crimea, and the US pushes for a peace deal with Ukraine in Nato/Neutral. China encourages Russia to accept. There are three serious issues with this plausible solution: (a) Russian resolve - and therefore conscripting more men if the war is not going well (b) American missiles in Ukraine is seen as an existential threat (c) In the event of going home, Russia will feel hard done by, and this may fester similar to the causes of WW2. While I don't believe (c) is relevant, at the national level, its probably relevant at the political level. [ Ukraine win scenario ]
2. Ukraine's counter offensive reclaims all of eastern Ukraine, this year, with Crimea, Russia definitely conscripts 1-2M more men in this scenario (else non-conventional or China military support) and the war drags on for another 2-3 years, and escalates. If Ukraine moves to take Crimea I dont see Russia not conscripting more men. War crimes visible from space until there is no army/people left in Ukraine. Russia may steal larger tracts of Ukraine, or all of it [ Russia win scenario ]
3. Donald Trump runs for president and becomes president, and ultimately tells Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. This would probably fracture the US / EU alliance. Noting that Donald Trump would not only destroy US reputation abroad he would wreck US politic's / Justice system for generations. Therefore, if you want to read between the lines, I cannot envisage Donald Trump ever becoming president of the US again. [ Russia win scenario ]. This to my mind has a 0% chance to occur.
4. A Biden Re-election. Double down on position and war escalates. several commentators suggest that over time the likely hood of a direct confrontation between the US and Russia is more plausible. If that does not happen then eventually in the war of attrition Ukraine would run out of men. [ Russia win scenario ]
5. same as #4 but direct confrontation [ no win scenario, i.e. world war].
6. Any other president - likely to result in #4 above. A republican president (not Trump) might be able to de-escalate. [ Russia win scenario ]
7. Russia dominates battle field and removes Government from capital. [ Russia win scenario ]
8. Russia runs out of bullets or West runs out of bullets = more bullets / hardware will be bought and war continues for years.
#1 and variations of #7 most plausible, in my opinion.
This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 24 2023 08:48am