Quote (ferdia @ 22 Mar 2022 14:40)
are we really contemplating that Russia is going to invade Poland or Germany ? Do we need to discuss this ? My own view is thats not plausible noting (a) Russia does not see itself as invading, and therefore won't invade Poland and (b) Russia is not capable of beating Nato and therefore it won't invade Poland because Poland is Nato.
with the caveat being Nato can't stay out if any Nato country is attacked. the conversation of Russia invading a Nato member is just so off the wall to my mind. I am not saying this aggressively I just don't understand the mindset that would suggest this. Please give a scenario where Russia invades Poland or Germany.
Oh, I totally agree with you. It was skinned who brought up this scenario of Russian invading Poland (and possibly Germany) next, I only addressed this scenario to push back against it. Since this scenario is mentioned quite often by various people, I wanted to lay out the arguments against it.
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 22 Mar 2022 14:53)
On a personal note, I do not think Russia is interested in Poland....
The invasion of Ukraine I feel is not just security, it is more of a resource reason, the Russians wanted to control more resource but please correct me if I am wrong.
In any circumstance, I do feel that even if China and Russia combine, they still cannot win the USA in a military confrontation at the moment.
Ukraine has only very small amounts of natural resources compared with Russia. I really don't think that that's the reason. Ferdia, ofthevoid and others see an imminent NATO membership as the casus belli, but I'm not convinced by that explanation either. No country with ongoing wars or territorial disputes can join NATO and this was clearly applying to Ukraine, given the situation in Donbass.
Imho, the only two explanations for Putin's decision to pull the trigger on a full-scale invasion are 1. a revisionist desire to restore former Soviet glory or 2. the desire to prevent the formation of a successful liberal democracy on Russia's doorstep that could ignite the democratic spark in Russia itself.