It's Europe that's bearing the economic brunt of this war. They are the ones doing far more trade with Russia than the U.S., they are the ones who depend on Russian gas and oil, they are the ones who will have to shoulder almost all of the costs of housing millions of Ukrainian refugees.

Regarding Russia's resources, it must be kept in mind that Russia has virtually no other economic asset - they will absolutely continue to sell them on the world markets, they have no other choice. The West might phase out of Russian gas and oil in the medium-term future, and Russia might build new pipelines toward China and perhaps also India, but the overall amount of gas and oil that Russia provides to the world markets will, in the long run, stay roughly the same.


edit: one more thing: the world as a whole cannot have any interest in Russia going into total collapse. Crushing them economically to the point that there's mass starvation and riots on the streets is not a palatable option, we don't want that kind of chaos in a country with thousands of nukes.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 22 2022 04:27am

The question was specifically if sanctions succeeded in "regime change or behavior change"... Yes sanctions can weaken a nation at large, it is a form of collective punishment akin to a blockade and should be considered illegal imho.
I'm posting against the argument that sanctions can result in regime change or change the behavior of a regime, at that they are proven failures everywhere tried.

PS: Seems the US is now kissing tushy for Iran and Venzuela. Less than couple of weeks ago Iran bombarded directly with missiles the US consulate in Irbil (which they said was a Mossad base) after an Israeli strike that killed IRGC members in Syria. Yemeni Houthis bombed facilities of ARAMCO last week. Seems nothing has changed since the sanctions with regard to Iran behavior, in fact it made them more aggressive, and still the deal will likely be signed again binding this time

This post was edited by Lebanon961 on Mar 22 2022 04:44am

Yes it makes sense, we agree on the causes and characterization of the main events.
As for what backroom deal, who knows, maybe China will finance a part of the war, maybe it will help them circumvent sanctions and guarantee to keep buying their oil etc. Many possibilities. My hunch tells me that a backroom deal was cut and that is why the US is making these statements about China.

I just gave you a list of examples in which the behavior of regimes was changed by sanctions. That sanctions cannot change the intentions of a regime might be true, but they can definitely reduce a regime's latitude for aggression.

In the specific case of Russia, the sale of natural resources is the backbone of the state finances on which the "system Putin" is built. Sure, during times of war and hardship, they can make the oligarchs and the common people take a hit, but there's a limit to how much sacrifice the government can demand from them before the mood in the country becomes a threat to Putin's power. The oligarchs and the upper middle class might be a greater threat in this regard than the poor who can be appeased and distracted with food stamps and jingoism.

You gave examples of sanctions weakening a nation, their capabilities to take action, their reach... on that we agree sanctions can weaken a nation at large (akin to collective punishment).
Sanctions do not succeed in changing a regime (but good luck banking on that happening on Putin), and they do not succeed at changing a nation's behavior or intentions i.e. 'lets be good boys to and hope to get these sanctions lifted'.

Btw Goomshill makes a great point about when sanctions are overused At some point, you stop isolating the adversary and start isolating yourself. Maybe that point has not been reached yet but it is damn close. China can not be sanctioned in that way for example, and be sure many many entities will pull their money from Western banks and reduce dependence on Western financial institutions after demonstrating that being part of these systems is only beneficial as long as your don't have disagreements on foreign policy.

Europe is doing more I guess, but they're actually the ones being attacked by Russia. Ukraine is a European country and a peer of Germany.

Russia bombing Ukraine and the Poland border would be like of Oklahoma bombed Missouri and I was in Ohio. Those motherfuckers can march to you, and they sacked your Reichstag before lol.

Europe also has a history of trying to appease dictators who are murdering their neighbors with poor results and that seems to be happening here and nobody in Europe is actually doing anything to Russia outside of not trading with them.



We aren't going to isolate ourselves playing this game with Russia because Russia doesn't actually have an economy or anything. They don't produce or export anything. They have been a rapine economy for years.

Since Putin is actually a war criminal now I do not think this will be too much of a problem.

This post was edited by Skinned on Mar 22 2022 05:52am

Didn’t take long for pain points like these to start appearing. Expect more of this in the 3rd world.



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/22/sri-lanka-deploys-troops-fuel-shortage-protests

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 22 2022 06:04am

Nobody cares about the third world.

Well, that's the problem: besides economic sanctions, what exactly could we "do about it"? Military action against a country in possession of thousands of nukes and ICBMs is not really a feasible option, so trying to dry up their funding and arming their opponents with defensive weapons are about the only things we can do.

Also, the way Russia is struggling with Ukraine, a rundown shithole, doesn't suggest that they would have the power to push further west, into Poland and potentially towards Germany. Poland has about the same population size as Ukraine, a much stronger economy, a much better equipped military and hates the Russians just as much. The developments in Ukraine have made it perfectly clear that Russia wouldn't be able to win a conventional war against the EU, even if the U.S./NATO stay out.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 22 2022 07:03am